packbacker Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 And of course, the 12z Euro loses the strong cut off in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 As expected, the Euro has a weak sheared out short wave, no SW closed low. Now no model or ensemble has a SE wintry event next weekend. Just rain then colder. Rinse, repeat. Throw that run last night into the huge pile of model SE fantasy snow storms that were just that, pure fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 So long dental plan....dental plan....dental plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 So long dental plan....dental plan....dental plan Well Lisa did end up getting braces so maybe we will end up wit a moderate snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 As expected, the Euro has a weak sheared out short wave, no SW closed low. Now no model or ensemble has a SE wintry event next weekend. Just rain then colder. Rinse, repeat. Throw that run last night into the huge pile of model SE fantasy snow storms that were just that, pure fantasy. As Cheez said, it changed as expected. What were the odds of it this far out having anything close to that historic snowstorm again, maybe 10% at the very best? And that still probably wouldn't look as good as the near perfection of the 0Z run. Anything like that is always extremely unlikely climowise (or else it would occur more often) and has only low odds of verifying this far out. However, it does show that IF everything just happens to line up just right, some in the SE could get a decent winter storm around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 It will come back. Don't worry, guys. It will close off again in future runs. Just watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That would have been the fastest thread cancel in the history of the South-East had it been made. jk...it could easily come back or trend to bring us something wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That would have been the fastest thread cancel in the history of the South-East had it been made. jk...it could easily come back or trend to bring us something wintry. Don't get your hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 LOL...this thread is great...watching all the yaaaaays and boooooooos... In all seriousness though, February definitely has the potential to be a great month for winter weather in the southeast...I just took a look at the MJO models and they are locking in a solid 8-1-2 progression through mid-month which would be great...hang in there gang...going to be a long ride for the rest of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 LOL...this thread is great...watching all the yaaaaays and boooooooos... In all seriousness though, February definitely has the potential to be a great month for winter weather in the southeast...I just took a look at the MJO models and they are locking in a solid 8-1-2 progression through mid-month which would be great...hang in there gang...going to be a long ride for the rest of the winter I agree too many ups and downs with emotions from one run to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Guys, you all are looking at models that are a week away. Please. Step back, look at the bigger picture. This morning I posted this from the HPC: WILL NOT BELABOR THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS MEDIUMRANGE FORECAST: IT IS VERY LOW. All the signs are pointing toward rather large changes late next week. The devil is in the details and you can't EVEN begin to look at those yet. Focus on the pattern for now. Here is their latest disco http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php as well as CPC's Prognostic discussion http://www.daculaweather.com/4_cpc_extended_disco.php These guys are picking it apart, it would pay to follow their discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The Euro 3 days ago showed a 18" of snow for the NE for today's storm, it's becoming very JMA'ish.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Speaking of the JMA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It will come back. Don't worry, guys. It will close off again in future runs. Just watch. Do I hear a CR guarantee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We got a general idea if the 3 events before it continue to hit near Friday. Lets hope this shows up on the euro again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Do I hear a CR guarantee? LOL. Look at the angle of that trough and all the energy in the base of it. To me it looks like it is going to cut off. Question is, if it does cut, will it come out or stay behind until we warm up. We've seen that look a couple of times already this season and we've seen it cut off, so I would lean in that direction... at least until I get hammered by Mr. Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 it's just one run. Plenty of time for it to come back. And we have seen today things can really change up to the day of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 LOL. Look at the angle of that trough and all the energy in the base of it. To me it looks like it is going to cut off. Question is, if it does cut, will it come out or stay behind until we warm up. We've seen that look a couple of times already this season and we've seen it cut off, so I would lean in that direction... at least until I get hammered by Mr. Bob. I actually tend to agree with you...it is the model I hug and sleep with afterall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 I actually tend to agree with you...it is the model I hug and sleep with afterall! Nice. Yeah, that's the one that hugs the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Euro ensembles not good, little sign of a closed low in most if not all of the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 yeah just saw that in ensembles, not much of anything. that was quick, but better than being strung along for a couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It can easily come back. Maybe it will just be a few days later than previously shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Euro ensembles not good, little sign of a closed low in most if not all of the members. However, there is some precip over the Southeast next Thursday night/Friday, meaning some members still have a storm. Are the chances ever high for a major southeast snowstorm particularly 7+ days out? No. But until the model agree on the timing of the s/w and steram interactions it cant be ruled out. With that said, I think the week following 2/3-2/7 has a lot more potential for something to happen as the pacific jet looks to undercut the ridge center in western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We can always pull for this 12z GFS ENS members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We can always pull for this 12z GFS ENS members You can's show members like this Allan...You're going to give Brick a heart attack! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 With that said, I think the week following 2/3-2/7 has a lot more potential for something to happen as the pacific jet looks to undercut the ridge center in western Canada. Yep, split flow here on Euro Ens off the west coast...but will it be cold enough then without a -NAO block??? http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/14/eurod.png/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 We can always pull for this 12z GFS ENS members Bank. This is like old times. I'm glad you've been posting more the last couple of days, Allan. I know you don't always have a lot of time, but it sure is good when you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We can always pull for this 12z GFS ENS members I want to believe! But like you said, even if this doesn't happen, it looks and feels like something is brewing around the first week of February. Plenty of time for the models to bring this around, but maybe just a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Bank. This is like old times. I'm glad you've been posting more the last couple of days, Allan. I know you don't always have a lot of time, but it sure is good when you do. Thanks. Yeah life is a lot busier than it used to be, but I will always be around when something significant is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Definitely wouldn't be surprised to see that cutoff scenario return on the operationals. Once again, really reminds me of how the modeling was behaving leading up to last week's system. It might not go back to that scenario, but there's a lot of energy rounding the base of that trough, so it will tend to 'want' to if it's more positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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