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January Pattern and Storm Discussion II


Cold Rain

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As expected, the Euro has a weak sheared out short wave, no SW closed low. Now no model or ensemble has a SE wintry event next weekend. Just rain then colder. Rinse, repeat.

Throw that run last night into the huge pile of model SE fantasy snow storms that were just that, pure fantasy.

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As expected, the Euro has a weak sheared out short wave, no SW closed low. Now no model or ensemble has a SE wintry event next weekend. Just rain then colder. Rinse, repeat.

Throw that run last night into the huge pile of model SE fantasy snow storms that were just that, pure fantasy.

 

As Cheez said,  it changed as expected. What were the odds of it this far out having anything close to that historic snowstorm again, maybe 10% at the very best? And that still probably wouldn't look as good as the near perfection of the 0Z run.  Anything like that is always extremely unlikely climowise (or else it would occur more often) and has only low odds of verifying this far out. However, it does show that IF everything just happens to line up just right, some in the SE could get a decent winter storm around that time.

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LOL...this thread is great...watching all the yaaaaays and boooooooos...

 

In all seriousness though, February definitely has the potential to be a great month for winter weather in the southeast...I just took a look at the MJO models and they are locking in a solid 8-1-2 progression through mid-month which would be great...hang in there gang...going to be a long ride for the rest of the winter :popcorn:

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LOL...this thread is great...watching all the yaaaaays and boooooooos...

In all seriousness though, February definitely has the potential to be a great month for winter weather in the southeast...I just took a look at the MJO models and they are locking in a solid 8-1-2 progression through mid-month which would be great...hang in there gang...going to be a long ride for the rest of the winter :popcorn:

I agree too many ups and downs with emotions from one run to the next.
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Guys, you all are looking at models that are a week away. Please. Step back, look at the bigger picture. This morning I posted this from the HPC:

 

WILL NOT BELABOR THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS MEDIUMRANGE FORECAST: IT IS VERY LOW.

All the signs are pointing toward rather large changes late next week. The devil is in the details and you can't EVEN begin to look at those yet. Focus on the pattern for now.

 

Here is their latest disco http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php as well as CPC's Prognostic discussion http://www.daculaweather.com/4_cpc_extended_disco.php 

 

These guys are picking it apart, it would pay to follow their discussions.

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Do I hear a CR guarantee?

LOL.  Look at the angle of that trough and all the energy in the base of it.  To me it looks like it is going to cut off.  Question is, if it does cut, will it come out or stay behind until we warm up.  We've seen that look a couple of times already this season and we've seen it cut off, so I would lean in that direction... at least until I get hammered by Mr. Bob. :D

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LOL.  Look at the angle of that trough and all the energy in the base of it.  To me it looks like it is going to cut off.  Question is, if it does cut, will it come out or stay behind until we warm up.  We've seen that look a couple of times already this season and we've seen it cut off, so I would lean in that direction... at least until I get hammered by Mr. Bob. :D

I actually tend to agree with you...it is the model I hug and sleep with afterall!

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Euro ensembles not good, little sign of a closed low in most if not all of the members.

 

However, there is some precip over the Southeast next Thursday night/Friday, meaning some members still have a storm.

 

Are the chances ever high for a major southeast snowstorm particularly 7+ days out? No. But until the model agree on the timing of the s/w and steram interactions it cant be ruled out.

 

With that said, I think the week following 2/3-2/7 has a lot more potential for something to happen as the pacific jet looks to undercut the ridge center in western Canada.

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With that said, I think the week following 2/3-2/7 has a lot more potential for something to happen as the pacific jet looks to undercut the ridge center in western Canada.

Yep, split flow here on Euro Ens off the west coast...but will it be cold enough then without a -NAO block???

 

 

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Bank.  This is like old times.  I'm glad you've been posting more the last couple of days, Allan.  I know you don't always have a lot of time, but it sure is good when you do.

 

Thanks. Yeah life is a lot busier than it used to be, but I will always be around when something significant is going on.

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Definitely wouldn't be surprised to see that cutoff scenario return on the operationals. Once again, really reminds me of how the modeling was behaving leading up to last week's system. It might not go back to that scenario, but there's a lot of energy rounding the base of that trough, so it will tend to 'want' to if it's more positively tilted.

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