calculus1 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Guys... I know it's a week away but this at least holds some promise. What do you say we start its own thread? Hold on, Steve. We must first determine whether the skies will have enough time to heal between today and next weekend? Anybody know the incubation period for an ice storm illness? I'd hate to start a thread on an event if the skies will be too sick to even participate next weekend. We need an expert on cloud medicine. Are there homeopathic remedies or do we have paid professionals that must administer aid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I know there is a site that has the European model with a snowfall map and a nice loop of it too. I can't seem to find it anymore. anyone have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I know there is a site that has the European model with a snowfall map and a nice loop of it too. I can't seem to find it anymore. anyone have a link? Here you go! http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap Just go to "model data." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Might be but this fits into the thoughts about the GWO from QVectorman exactly. A couple of weeks ago he predicted that Jan 30 - Feb 2 we'd have a really good shot of cold air and possibly other things. So far I don't think he's been wrong. I don't know about these rules "starting a new thread" for a storm thing. I'm too much of a lurker/newbie. Your world, frightens and confuses me. I'm just a newbie. With that said I don't believe in jinxes so whatever's fine with me. It may be nice to wait another run to see if it's still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Probably should wait until after this event. More threads more confusion and divided conversation. I vote Brick to start it Saturday night if the GFS came aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z gfs says the euro is smoking dope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z gfs says the euro is smoking dope Isn't it called the Goofus for a reason? Euro seems to be the best in sniffing out these things in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Here you go! http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap Just go to "model data." awesome, thank you! I love saving screenshots of epic fantasy storms. so I can see how badly they miss when it comes game time. maybe, just maybe the euro is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 That's all right, you all will come around! Mark this part of the thread though. Big changes next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Isn't it called the Goofus for a reason? Euro seems to be the best in sniffing out these things in the long range. yes sir ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z gfs says the euro is smoking dope Actually, the GFS has changed its tune somewhat vs the 00z. You can see hints of a storm...granted it's nothing like the EURO but it's a BIG step in the right direction. Something is a brew'n!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Just at a quick glance it appears as if the American model at 500 mb has moved toward the euro. Furthermore, the GFS model sees a ton of potential moving forward into February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Actually, the GFS has changed its tune somewhat vs the 00z. You can see hints of a storm...granted it's nothing like the EURO but it's a BIG step in the right direction. Something is a brew'n!! will the cold air be in place next weekend if the models do latch on to something for next weekend. would love to see a big snow, but no ice like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Just at a quick glance it appears as if the American model at 500 mb has moved toward the euro. Furthermore, the GFS model sees a ton of potential moving forward into February It looks like our long lost friend the STJ finally wants to make an appearance. This goes well with phases 1-3 of the MJO. "Fab Feb" here we come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm warning you... you ain't listening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 You can definitely see the GFS wants to.... almost does..... cut off the tail end of that trough like the Euro does. It's close to doing so. This reminds me so much of the modeling leading up to last week's event. You think it's the known Euro bias of holding energy back in the SW (and it could very well be this time), and then nope....turns out to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 You can definitely see the GFS wants to.... almost does..... cut off the tail end of that trough like the Euro does. It's close to doing so. This reminds me so much of the modeling leading up to last week's event. You think it's the known Euro bias of holding energy back in the SW (and it could very well be this time), and then nope....turns out to be right. GFS.png Great point! It acts like it realllllly wants too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 In looking at the maps in more detail there is NO doubt it took a step toward the Euro. Furthermore, I know it's a known bias of the Euro to hang the energy back, but we are talking about an 84 hour forecast till breaking off......not a 10 day here. This is a legit threat no matter how it turns out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 And just like that the gfs ensembles join the party! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 You can definitely see the GFS wants to.... almost does..... cut off the tail end of that trough like the Euro does. It's close to doing so. This reminds me so much of the modeling leading up to last week's event. You think it's the known Euro bias of holding energy back in the SW (and it could very well be this time), and then nope....turns out to be right. GFS.png Ensembles valid same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Latest GGEM cut's it off...It doesn't eject it like the Euro, but the cut off is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 And just like that the gfs ensembles join the party! I think there will be a few members that show something substantial from the 12 Z GFS run today just looking at the ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What timeframe is this for? Next Sat?tia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Actually, the GFS has changed its tune somewhat vs the 00z. You can see hints of a storm...granted it's nothing like the EURO but it's a BIG step in the right direction. Something is a brew'n!! It had a big dog a couple days ago since it goes out to 15. So it's not like the euro is on another planet. It's eye catching that this is 2 runs in a row with the euro showing something pretty significant for the this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What timeframe is this for? Next Sat?tia! Fridayish I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Does anyone see anything that suggests any reasonable possibility of a cold shot into Florida? My reading of the recent model runs (last 3 days) says "No" but I'd love to be corrected if there is a basis for correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1049 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013 VALID 12Z MON JAN 28 2013 - 12Z FRI FEB 01 2013 CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AS MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW DIVERGING IDEAS FOR HOW MUCH FLOW SEPARATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE INITIAL WRN CONUS TROF. ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FCST BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD IS SOME SPREAD IN THE HANDLING OF NRN STREAM ENERGY WITHIN THE BROAD/AMPLIFIED MEAN TROF EXPECTED TO REACH THE ERN HALF OF NOAM. IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT ARRAY OF SOLNS AND A HINT OF THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TRENDING TOWARD EACH OTHER VERSUS THEIR 12Z/24 RUNS... PREFER A BLEND OF THOSE TWO 00Z MEANS IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THE BEST CONTINUITY POSSIBLE WHILE AWAITING BETTER GUIDANCE CLUSTERING. FROM THE LARGE SCALE PERSPECTIVE THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE ERN PAC RIDGE STAYS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SWWD ELONGATION OF WRN CONUS FLOW AS SHOWN TO SOME DEGREE IN TELECONNECTIONS... ON THE WAY TOWARD MEANS SUGGESTING NEG HGT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER SERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND PSBLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE DOMINANT BY LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND. BASED ON TELECONS THE DIFFERENCE IN EMPHASIS OF THESE TWO FEATURES TRANSLATES TO THE LARGEST SPREAD IN PCPN POTENTIAL OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CONUS... WITH THE STRONGER EPAC RIDGE SUPPORTING MSTR OVER THE SRN TIER VERSUS DRY CONDS WITH A MORE DOMINANT ERN NOAM TROF. ULTIMATELY SOME ACCOUNT FOR EITHER SCENARIO IS RECOMMENDED AT THIS TIME. THE 00Z AND TO SOME EXTENT 06Z GEFS MEANS SHOW MORE SWWD ELONGATION OF ENERGY THAN THE 12Z RUN... WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN HAS TRENDED AWAY A FRACTION FROM THE 12Z RUN WITH THE DEPTH/WWD EXTENT OF ENERGY THAT IS LEFT BEHIND. THE PAST TWO OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS ARE EXTREME RELATIVE TO OTHER OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THEIR DEGREE OF FLOW SEPARATION... BUT THEY FIT WITHIN THE BROAD ENSEMBLE SPREAD ASIDE FROM PSBLY BEING A LITTLE DEEP WITH THE CLOSED LOW. THE PREFERRED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN OFFERS A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SCENARIO ALLOWING SOME ENERGY TO LINGER NEAR THE EXTREME WRN US-MEXICO BORDER FOR A LITTLE WHILE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE... BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE THAN ECMWF RUNS. THE 06Z GFS COMPARES LEAST FAVORABLY TO CONSENSUS OVER THE CONUS BY DAYS 4-5 TUE-WED... SHOWING A SHARPER OVERALL TROF AND EXTENDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE GRTLKS/SRN CANADA WHERE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW. THUS THE 06Z GFS IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. BESIDES THE QUESTION OF WHAT HAPPENS TO ANY ENERGY THAT COLLECTS OVER/NEAR THE SWRN CONUS/NWRN MEXICO... BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SOME OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INCL THE 00Z GFS/CMC INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR NRN STREAM ENERGY TO BE VIGOROUS/CONCENTRATED ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SFC LOW THAT WOULD AFFECT THE ERN STATES AROUND LATE NEXT WEEK. BY THAT TIME FRAME INDIVIDUAL 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH SFC LOW CENTERS... THOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY ECMWF MEMBERS MAKE UP THE LARGEST PCT OF SFC LOW CENTERS DEPICTED OVER THE SRN TIER. SO FAR CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DEPICT SUCH A SFC WAVE IN A DETERMINISTIC FCST. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING FROM THE WEST/PLAINS INTO THE EAST. BEHIND THE FRONT MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH SOME EVENTUAL MODERATION... THOUGH COOL READINGS MAY PERSIST OVER THE GRTBASIN. ONCE THE ANCHORING SFC LOW TRACKS NEWD INTO ERN CANADA... COLD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY DAYS 5-7 WED-FRI. DURING THIS TIME THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD PROGRESS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GULF INFLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME AREAS OF MDT-HVY RNFL OVER PARTS OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS AROUND TUE-WED. UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS OF FLOW ALOFT OVER/NEAR THE SRN TIER STATES YIELDS LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING LOCATION/INTENSITY OF PCPN ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD. RAUSCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Looks like the Euro not holding our cutoff back as much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Probably should wait until after this event. More threads more confusion and divided conversation. I vote Brick to start it Saturday night if the GFS came aboard. This is a pretty good suggestion. Fragmented discussion is good but splitting too much can be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Oz run had the cutoff over southern Arizona at 0z 1/31. 12 run has it in old Mexico, south of New Mexico -- 12 hours EARLIER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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