tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 So we have a barrage of accum maps for a storm that was never going to be snow for most if not all (todays system) - yet we can't get an accum map of the fantasy snow from the epic storm on the euro. wunderground picked a great day for its maps to screw up. I can't get any panels beyond day 5 or so. Member 008 off the 0z gfs is probably a good match or Eurolike.....if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Looking at the 0z cmc its not that far off. And yes the jma showed a storm at 12z yesterday or so I heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I reviewed the 0z ECMWF. It is a thing of beauty. A long running southern tracker with a wide swath of 12+ snow across the upper south. The type of storm we have not seen in a long long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 0z euro FTW!!!! In all seriousness I would like to see other models hold that energy back but it sure is pretty to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I reviewed the 0z ECMWF. It is a thing of beauty. A long running southern tracker with a wide swath of 12+ snow across the upper south. it sure is, looks like a solid 12-15 for nc and tn mtns. Now lets lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It does have that "classic" look to it that we used to see back in the 80s. Seriously widespread. I just hope we can keep it there and see other modeling move toward a similar solution. We see more trend away from a snow than toward. We should be owed one like that after the last 2 years........haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What's encouraging to me is that the pattern is going to support threats...who knows on the specific timing, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What's encouraging to me is that the pattern is going to support threats...who knows on the specific timing, etc. We got a general idea if the 3 events before it continue to hit near Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 If memory serves (and I'm on very little sleep), I think the Euro was initially the only model that caught onto the piece of last week's trough hanging back. Turned out to be correct obviously. Matt I think you're correct, the whole ULL threat came from the EURO first when everybody else was progressive, the GFS later came around to it. IIRC. Not to say this is the same, but this time I think it led the way. I think Robert back in November made a great point on how the euro seems to lead the way with big storms and smaller ones not so much. Example, the Christmas storm of 2010. I remember the Christmas storm being progged a week early and we followed it all week (and it underperformed, but I'm not bitter!!). So yeah, maybe the EURO is on to something. It seems to me that this year the GFS has picked up well on long range synoptic patterns like ridges, NAO, etc while the EURO has led the way on storms, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What's encouraging to me is that the pattern is going to support threats...who knows on the specific timing, etc. Yes, that's the best part for me. Mets on the board from various regions called out this time frame as something to keep our eyes on, them BOOM. Here you go. I'm feelin this one!! (It'll disappear on the next run but it's fun to think about for the next few hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Great update from Brad Panovich: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The accupro map of the Euro isn't quite as wide spread as the one above, especially in the Deep South states, SC and Eastern NC. It's more 6-10 where that map is 8-12 across Tennessee, N.Ala and West and C NC. Only over 12 on it is in the Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Great update from Brad Panovich: Great video. And the mPing app is really easy to use! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We got a general idea if the 3 events before it continue to hit near Friday. Looks like maybe a couple inches for Atlanta and 12+ for Chattanooga. What a huge difference 100 miles can make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Matt I think you're correct, the whole ULL threat came from the EURO first when everybody else was progressive, the GFS later came around to it. IIRC. Not to say this is the same, but this time I think it led the way. I remember the Christmas storm being progged a week early and we followed it all week (and it underperformed, but I'm not bitter!!). So yeah, maybe the EURO is on to something. It seems to me that this year the GFS has picked up well on long range synoptic patterns like ridges, NAO, etc while the EURO has led the way on storms, IMO. It actually showed up on Day 10 over N GA...I know since I had planned a trip to California and wanted to see what fly out day looked like. Not that I want to pump up the hype or anything.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Member 008 off the 0z gfs is probably a good match or Eurolike.....if you will. Wish it would slow down a little and hit on super bowl sunday No matter though I would take this storm next weekend anytime. keeping my fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Wish it would slow down a little and hit on super bowl sunday No matter though I would take this storm next weekend anytime. keeping my fingers crossed. LOL... I really don't care what day it hits. The euro is a solid foot plus for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We got a general idea if the 3 events before it continue to hit near Friday. Looks like 4-6 here. I'd pay good money if this run is right..hell I'd pay even more if it shift south a bit. Don't know the full soundings of the euro but given how cool (barely above freezing at 850mb from around atlanta to washington, I wouldn't be suprised to see an area of sleet..possibly significant. That said, it's one run and a huge departure from the last run so won't be excited about this just yet. Certainly need some other model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We got a general idea if the 3 events before it continue to hit near Friday. That really is a thing of beauty; 12+ for CLT. That's old school right there. It's going to hurt to not see it after 1:30 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We got a general idea if the 3 events before it continue to hit near Friday. I know that is a long way off, but it is awesome to see that on the table for now. That would be well worth the wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 0Z op followed by the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 CPC Prognostic Discussion - http://www.daculaweather.com/4_cpc_extended_disco.php http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1210 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013VALID 12Z MON JAN 28 2013 - 12Z FRI FEB 01 2013WILL NOT BELABOR THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS MEDIUMRANGE FORECAST: IT IS VERY LOW. THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OFTHE ENERGY DROPPING ALONG THE WEST COAST TUCKS OFFSHORE EARLY INTHE PERIOD--A SITUATION THAT WOULD LEAD TO A MUCH SLOWER EJECTIONOF THE TROUGH. THE 12Z/24 EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE KEPT THE TROUGHOUT OF PLAY BY UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE REMAINDEROF THE MODELS, INCLUDING PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECENS MEAN, KEPT THEENERGY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES TO ALLOW IT TOKICK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PHASE WITH THE NEXT SLUG OFENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE IS OFTENTHE FIRST TO LATCH CORRECTLY ONTO A NEW TREND, SO GAVE IT HALF THEWEIGHTING IN THE MANUAL BLEND. BALANCED THE REMAINDER OF THE BLENDWITH THE MORE PHASED/PROGRESSIVE 12Z/24 GEFS MEAN. THE RESULT ISTHE AMORPHOUS BLEND OF TWO DISPARATE ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH RENDERSDISCUSSION OF THE PARTICULARS OF ANY GIVEN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MOOTUNTIL THE BIG PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER.THE SAFEST THING TO NOTE ABOUT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THE MASSIVEWARM-UP FOR THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH THE ANOMALIESFLIPPING FROM DOUBLE-DIGIT NEGATIVE TO DOUBLE-DIGIT POSITIVEACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DAYS 3 AND 4.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Ok, check out this Philly Thread. It seems like the mets over there have a real feel that the south is about to be rockin. I think we need to start "preparing for glory"!! Where's WOW been anyway? If this specific storm doesn't pan out, perhaps another wave in the newly active STJ will. Good times. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38643-medium-range-long-range-thread/page-25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Guys... I know it's a week away but this at least holds some promise. What do you say we start its own thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Guys... I know it's a week away but this at least holds some promise. What do you say we start it's own thread? How about after the 12 run today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Guys... I know it's a week away but this at least holds some promise. What do you say we start its own thread? Too early. Might jinx it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Too early. Might jinx it. Jinx it... you mean you don't believe the models but you do believe in jinxes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Brick Tamland, on 25 Jan 2013 - 10:51, said: Too early. Might jinx it. Jinx it... you mean you don't believe the models but you do believe in jinxes? anybody but the kid start it; that is a jinx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Guys... I know it's a week away but this at least holds some promise. What do you say we start its own thread? the only problem is that its a week away. Boy is it pretty to look at for now, the snow map, WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Might be but this fits into the thoughts about the GWO from QVectorman exactly. A couple of weeks ago he predicted that Jan 30 - Feb 2 we'd have a really good shot of cold air and possibly other things. So far I don't think he's been wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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