Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 Not gonna get in here fast enough on this run. HP moving out of the NE, LP inbound. Cold not locking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Not gonna get in here fast enough on this run. HP moving out of the NE, LP inbound. Cold not locking in. Yep ULL rolls through KY...some weak energy trailing but it's too late probably as there isn't enough cold air @183 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Not gonna get in here fast enough on this run. HP moving out of the NE, LP inbound. Cold not locking in. I would not be too worried about that right now. This is a huge change from it's last few runs and this is not the final solution. I'm still worried about suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Overall though just MHO this was a good step in the right direction towards the Euro. Lots of things need to go right but at least the GFS came closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 I would not be too worried about that right now. This is a huge change from it's last few runs and this is not the final solution. I'm still worried about suppression. Oh yeah, totally agree. I was just commenting on the depiction. But, you're right. The more important ideas is that the players are on the field and we'll need to watch how things trend going forward. Overall, not terrible at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 lol GFS goes vodka cold @276 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 The motherload of cold comes in day 10+, lows in the single digits and highs below 20F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 What's about to happen is anyones guess right now but the important thing is that winter is on the horizon. We'll know MUCH more in in the way of details in another week. The models are only beginning to hint at what's to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 @288 GFS has -20 850's across all of NC....at 12z temps are in the teens. Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 This is the look I've wanted to see from the GFS when it comes to cold. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 We need the pocket of energy on the west side of the arctic high pressure to dive down and combine with the moisture in the Gulf and then BOOM! Either way, that sure is one cold look. Typically the winter precip chances occur as the cold air relaxes a bit, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 no news here, but when that shortwave ejects... how much it shears out will be solely dependent upon the position/strength of the polar vortex and also the position of a further weakening southeast ridge (ridge is even weaker on this run compared to last) we want that vortex in a good posotion for low-level cold in place, but any stronger and the wave will get crushed underneath the confluence... most likely a very slim chance this system will be strong enough to make much noise... we'll have to thread the needle (as usual) on the wave as it opens up and dampens out... most know the GFS does have a bias of shearing out southern stream energy too soon so no surprise the trends are toward the Euro in keeping it bundled I know it's borderline la-la land, but the 252 and 264hr maps are downright sick with the -20C @ 5000ft showing up knocking on the door of the Carolinas as the vortex to the north rolls over on itself http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011112&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=252 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011112&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=264 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 Wow indeed. What is going to drive the PV that far south? I'm only looking on ewall right now, so I can't see NH maps, but it doesn't look like the PNA/EPO ridge is super tall...is there strong blocking over the top? Anywho....I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this is probably just the slightest bit overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 We need the pocket of energy on the west side of the arctic high pressure to dive down and combine with the moisture in the Gulf and then BOOM! Either way, that sure is one cold look. Typically the winter precip chances occur as the cold air relaxes a bit, though. I've seen the winter storms precede the cold, too. Usually, get nothing but cold and dry with this type of air mass as it is truly arctic in origin. Nothing but a cold desert up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Wow indeed. What is going to drive the PV that far south? I'm only looking on ewall right now, so I can't see NH maps, but it doesn't look like the PNA/EPO ridge is super tall...is there strong blocking over the top? Anywho....I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this is probably just the slightest bit overdone. you are correct... no tall PNA ridge (still there though)... & that combos with a block over Greenland as reinforcing shots of cold rotate around the western side of the PV http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-canncep.php?run=2013011112&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=252 I would agree... cold likely overdone, but even half that cold is a good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I've seen the winter storms precede the cold, too. Usually, get nothing but cold and dry with this type of air mass as it is truly arctic in origin. Nothing but a cold desert up there. Yes, you are correct. Having the cold air in the vicinity is a bonus and as long as its lurking, there's always a chance something will develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 LOL The 10hPa level went down to about Nebraska before dying out on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Wow indeed. What is going to drive the PV that far south? I'm only looking on ewall right now, so I can't see NH maps, but it doesn't look like the PNA/EPO ridge is super tall...is there strong blocking over the top? Anywho....I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this is probably just the slightest bit overdone. Best answer: GFS cold bias. -19 C at 850 for KATL is within 2 of alltime coldest on record there. No reason at all to believe this. Discarding this solution. However, this is great entertainment even if little forecast value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 you are correct... no tall PNA ridge, but that combos with a block over Greenland http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-canncep.php?run=2013011112&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=252 I would agree... probably overdone, but even half that cold is a good start Hey, at this point, I'll take half of the half along with a good fantasy-land storm or two. The encouraging thing is that we're starting to see some fairly consistent model depictions of eastern cold coming. Up till now, we've had to rely on meteorology to depict the upcoming cold potential. Now, we're starting to see it actually show up in the modeling with more regularity. The next step in the progression will be to grab a heavy coat in the morning before heading off to work. Hopefully, we can get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 MJO headed to Phase 8 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Two general questions - 1) If the cold does come as the models are suggesting, is there anything on the table that will "lock" it in for a while? LR GFS looks transient. 2) If the cold does come as the models are suggesting, realistically, how far south does it invade? Models look to push out the SE Ridge, but it seems to want to come back some after 300 hours. Thanks for any tutorial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 If we can lose the SE ridge, I can see that sort of cold being a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 This is the last piece of the puzzle we need to get this cold pattern to get here and hold for awhile.this is very good news. Now all signs point to colder weather ahead! MJO headed to Phase 8 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 GFS ensembles at 264. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 The ensembles are trying to hold the southern wave together for next week. I still think this gets sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Euro looks a little weaker with the energy out west..not as potent. @132 it looks like it's loosing steam. GFS taking one step forward this one might take one step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 today's 12z Euro quicker with the onset of the cold front next Tuesday/Wedesday compared to yesterday's 12z... also beats down the SE ridge quicker (SE ridge weaker) it's also interesting that the SE ridge is trending weaker with every run I have seen today (even slightly weaker for this weekend) southern stream wave isn't going to have a much of a chance overcoming this push of arctic air from crushing it... unless it holds back and waits on the second wave of cold air next week which is unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 @150 light moisture across the SE. Not quite cold enough. You can really tell on this run how that northern energy dampens out that energy to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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