griteater Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 0z gfs op playing it up for next sat right along with the 12z euro. Boy does it get cold and stay cold in nc from Thursday on out. The GFS matches the look of the CPC ensemble blend map I posted above...fair to say that 2/2-2/15 is a "period of interest" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Don't look now, but the 0Z Doc may be setting up for a major SE winter storm at hour 162 in the southern plains. Let's see how this goes from here. Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Boom!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Historic SE winter storm 1/31-2/1 on 0Z Doc!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Don't look now, but the 0Z Doc may be setting up for a major SE winter storm at hour 162 in the southern plains. Let's see how this goes from here. Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Boom!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Historic SE winter storm 1/31-2/1 on 0Z Doc!!! Don't have any pay maps. What areas of the SE does it effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Don't have any pay maps. What areas of the SE does it effect? Northern half of MS/AL; northern 1/3 of GA/SC, all of TN, NC, and VA. SE KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Northern half of MS/AL; northern 1/3 of GA/SC, all of TN, NC, and VA What kind of QPF numbers was it spitting out? The GFS has been pretty juicy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What kind of QPF numbers was it spitting out? The GFS has been pretty juicy with it. The core is a 300 mile wide band of 1-2" of QPF for 1/31-2/1!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The core is a 300 mile wide band of 1-2" of QPF for 1/31-2/1!! WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It must be said the Doc is the only model hanging back a closed low in Southern CA which then ejects later on to give the SE the potential snow. Ukie, GFS. GFS ENS, GGEM all have a progressive short wave that phases in with the northern branch 3-4 days earlier. Now this is the second run of the Euro which has done this slower thing, lending a bit more confidence, but we area loooong way from getting excited about this- I want to see at least several more runs that have this scenario at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Looking at the 0Z suites (haven't looked at ensembles yet) the 0Z Euro and 0Z NOGAPS both close off at the base of next week's trough around day 4-5 and GFS, CMC, and UKMET do not. One could say it is the known bias of the Euro in holding back energy out west, but if I'm not mistaken, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the Euro/NOGAPS were first to suggest the cutoff/ULL low with last weeks system, and the rest of the models started to pickup on it as we grew closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Another potential storm to track within 180 is pleasing to me. I'm hoping it's a repeat of Jan 30th 2010, my last 12+ inch snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It must be said the Doc is the only model hanging back a closed low in Southern CA which then ejects later on to give the SE the potential snow. Ukie, GFS. GFS ENS, GGEM all have a progressive short wave that phases in with the northern branch 3-4 days earlier. Now this is the second run of the Euro which has done this slower thing, lending a bit more confidence, but we area loooong way from getting excited about this- I want to see at least several more runs that have this scenario at the very least. Cheez, Thanks for bringing me back from this fantastic fantasy lol. Seriously, I agree as this would still be 6.5+ days out. Very low confidence this far away. Just shows the potential if everything were to happen to line up just right. By the way, it appears that there may be several inches of accumulating sleet within the southern edge of the accumulating winter precip. based on this wintry precip. being a little south of the 850 mb 0 C line for the bulk of the storm. Some of this appears to be over Tony's place. Hopefully, he is sleeping. I wouldn't want to get him overexcited as he wouldn't be able to sleep. Shhhh, please nobody tell him! Let him have a very nice surprise when he wakes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 LOL. 00z EUro is 1/7/88 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Cheez, Thanks for bringing me back from this fantastic fantasy lol. Seriously, I agree as this would still be 6.5+ days out. Very low confidence this far away. Just shows the potential if everything were to happen to line up just right. By the way, it appears that there may be several inches of accumulating sleet within the southern edge of the accumulating winter precip. based on this wintry precip. being a little south of the 850 mb 0 C line for the bulk of the storm. Some of this appears to be over Tony's place. Hopefully, he is sleeping. I wouldn't want to get him overexcited as he wouldn't be able to sleep. Shhhh, please nobody tell him! Let him have a very nice surprise when he wakes up. Hell, nice surprise for me! Wake me up next time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Guys 00z Euro is a lock. I'll be California from next Thursday to Sunday. Just enough time for a big dog for me to miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 jason just make sure you start the obs thread now ... otherwise .... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 6.5 days - excellent... just in time for the weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Falls in line with QVectorman's GWO thoughts. Him and Don have been spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Interesting snippet from BMX this morning..... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL412 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013.SYNOPSIS...THE TYPICAL WINTER ROLLERCOASTER APPEARS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUEINTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZEDBY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY...BRUSHES OFWINTRY PRECIP THREATS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND BIG SWINGS IN THE HIGHSAND LOWS. TIMING DETAILS WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES CAN LEAD TOLARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY TO DAY FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 As I said with the current storm I will say for the next one...fits our new pattern of winter weather every week by Friday-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Euro ensemble mean looks to be supportive of the op at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Euro ensemble mean looks to be supportive of the op at 168. There was 0 support on the 18z GFS individual ensemble members, and one supporting on the 0z. What a member it was too. Clocked a LOT on this board. I want to see more ind members on 6z so we can say we see a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 From the HPC this mornings extended forecast disco...... THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE IS OFTENTHE FIRST TO LATCH CORRECTLY ONTO A NEW TREND, SO GAVE IT HALF THEWEIGHTING IN THE MANUAL BLEND. BALANCED THE REMAINDER OF THE BLENDWITH THE MORE PHASED/PROGRESSIVE 12Z/24 GEFS MEAN. THE RESULT ISTHE AMORPHOUS BLEND OF TWO DISPARATE ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH RENDERSDISCUSSION OF THE PARTICULARS OF ANY GIVEN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MOOTUNTIL THE BIG PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 If memory serves (and I'm on very little sleep), I think the Euro was initially the only model that caught onto the piece of last week's trough hanging back. Turned out to be correct obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 There was 0 support on the 18z GFS individual ensemble members, and one supporting on the 0z. What a member it was too. Clocked a LOT on this board. I want to see more ind members on 6z so we can say we see a trend.I agree, the euro is on it's own. Hard to trust it until we see additional model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 If memory serves (and I'm on very little sleep), I think the Euro was initially the only model that caught onto the piece of last week's trough hanging back. Turned out to be correct obviously.I think Robert back in November made a great point on how the euro seems to lead the way with big storms and smaller ones not so much. Example, the Christmas storm of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I agree, the euro is on it's own. Hard to trust it until we see additional model support. I was actually using the gfs members to show while 18z said impossible, 0z said the Euro was possible. I would always give more weight to the Euro, especially if its own ensembles generally support the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Thank you for this ! Classic WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I was actually using the gfs members to show while 18z said impossible, 0z said the Euro was possible. I would always give more weight to the Euro, especially if its own ensembles generally support the op.sorry, I mis read your post. Hopefully the gfs moves towards the euro and it has the correct solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 So we have a barrage of accum maps for a storm that was never going to be snow for most if not all (todays system) - yet we can't get an accum map of the fantasy snow from the epic storm on the euro. wunderground picked a great day for its maps to screw up. I can't get any panels beyond day 5 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 So we have a barrage of accum maps for a storm that was never going to be snow for most if not all (todays system) - yet we can't get an accum map of the fantasy snow from the epic storm on the euro. wunderground picked a great day for its maps to screw up. I can't get any panels beyond day 5 or so. Henry Margusity Fan Club He will likely post the accu-pro paid map later today...I don't want to look at it just yet! It is historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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