burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Uh... Houston we have a LR storm to track on the Euro. It's hard to tell if it's cold chasing but it looks like lots of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z Euro 4-8 for me next Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Euro outlying days...weenie time! Head for the hills! You're honestly telling me that what it's showing @240 might not be there tomorrow? Surely you jest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Major winter storm for NC next Saturday. tw (according to 12z Euro). Tomorrow is child's play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Just looking at the evolution of the 500 maps I don't really see what would cause it to not gain latitude coming east. I see the 50/50, but it looks displaced a little northeast and the NAO looks neutral at best. Nice eye candy though. What we have going FOR it is the phase of the MJO (should be in 8, heading to 1)................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Book it because I have a major performance that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You're honestly telling me that what it's showing @240 might not be there tomorrow? Surely you jest! LOL....At 240, the Euro had the Faux Snaux last week only over north GA.... It has to be right this time since it is the big one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Just looking at the evolution of the 500 maps I don't really see what would cause it to not gain latitude coming east. I see the 50/50, but it looks displaced a little northeast and the NAO looks neutral at best. Nice eye candy though. What we have going FOR it is the phase of the MJO (should be in 8, heading to 1)................... It takes the perfect track for places like RDU....looks like it bombs off the coast a bit after the cold front has moved through unless I'm looking at it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Just looking at the evolution of the 500 maps I don't really see what would cause it to not gain latitude coming east. I see the 50/50, but it looks displaced a little northeast and the NAO looks neutral at best. Nice eye candy though. What we have going FOR it is the phase of the MJO (should be in 8, heading to 1)................... MOst likely it is just the ole Euro bias in the day 5-10 range of hanging too much energy back in the Southwest as a trough drops down mid to late next week. It hangs it out for a few days and then brings it east while the strong trough in SE Canada keeps it supressed. GFS of course doesnt leave this energy behind like the EUro does. Is it possible? Sure, but unless the other globals are showing it, wise not to trust it for a few more days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 From Tallahassee NWS today: High temps are expected to climb back into the middle 70s over theinterior, before a cold front brings the next chance of showers andstorms to the region, along with another cool down expected by theend of the week. Nevertheless, with the average temperature at TLHnow standing at 59.3 degrees (or 8.3 degrees above normal, whichwould be also the 6th warmest Jan. of all time if it ended today),there appears to be a strong likelihood of a Top 10 all time finish(with #10 now at 56.9 degrees from Jan. 2006). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 LOL....At 240, the Euro had the Faux Snaux last week only over north GA.... It has to be right this time since it is the big one! Dammit man, let us dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z Euro 4-8 for me next Saturday! Right on queue!! I know it's at 240, but I LOVE it when a storm shows up on the models when the Board's mets are talking up a synoptic time frame. May or may not pan out but at least it's something to track that will probably do something big for someone. Hopefully a widespread event but we'll see. I don't know why but I'm itching for a nice February storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Well the GFS OP has been hinting at some potential around this time frame the past couple of days on and off. I've started observing the individual ens members as well as it's mean. You get on average 3-4 members showing posotive signs from run to run. The 12z has 3 or 4, heres the best one for MBY posted below. Now that it's within 10 days it will be interesting to see if the euro op and euro ensembles start honking. Keep in mind it was the euro ensembles last SAT @ 0z that spat out 1-3 inches of snow for central NC. If we see a run or two over the weekend on the euro ensemble sniffing this out, it will be a good sign imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Close call(again), 18z. GFS. At 162. Looks like cold chasing moisture. Alot of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Close call(again), 18z. GFS. At 162. Looks like cold chasing moisture. Alot of moisture. The term "cold chasing moisture" is not one I'm a fan of and its used a lot. We should just call it a fropa imo. Fropa's don't produce around here and they don't trend towards winter storms either. We need LP's in the south to produce a good storm. "Cold chasing moisture" situations mean the LP is way north of where we want it and I don't think I've ever seen one trend to a winter storm around here. Jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Anyone got the jma.Saw it had a big dog late next week. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Close call(again), 18z. GFS. At 162. Looks like cold chasing moisture. Alot of moisture. 18z looked like a weak lp on the tail end of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The term "cold chasing moisture" is not one I'm a fan of and its used a lot. We should just call it a fropa imo. Fropa's don't produce around here and they don't trend towards winter storms either. We need LP's in the south to produce a good storm. "Cold chasing moisture" situations mean the LP is way north of where we want it and I don't think I've ever seen one trend to a winter storm around here. Jmo Sorry to offend you. I know we need low pressure in the South for snow. I said cold chasing moisture due to the cold advancing as precipitation pulls Northeast. I do understand its a frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The term "cold chasing moisture" is not one I'm a fan of and its used a lot. We should just call it a fropa imo. Fropa's don't produce around here and they don't trend towards winter storms either. We need LP's in the south to produce a good storm. "Cold chasing moisture" situations mean the LP is way north of where we want it and I don't think I've ever seen one trend to a winter storm around here. Jmo To be fair, I have seen 2 instances in my life where cold chasing moisture from a frontal passage gave me accumulating snow. Both times I switched to snow about an hour before the precip ended and recieved roughly an inch of snow. I’m located in virtually the worst spot for frontal snow, since I’m tucked right behind the mountains in the hardest place for NW flow cold advection to scour out low level warm air. The last time it happened was a good 15 years ago though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 To be fair, I have seen 2 instances in my life where cold chasing moisture from a frontal passage gave me accumulating snow. Both times I switched to snow about an hour before the precip ended and recieved roughly an inch of snow. I’m located in virtually the worst spot for frontal snow, since I’m tucked right behind the mountains in the hardest place for NW flow cold advection to scour out low level warm air. The last time it happened was a good 15 years ago though.... [/quote Are you thinking of a cold front close to Christmas in 99 or 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Sorry to offend you. I know we need low pressure in the South for snow. I said cold chasing moisture due to the cold advancing as precipitation pulls Northeast. I do understand its a frontal passage. Ok. Then why did you say it was close? Close to what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 No cold down here, modeled or otherwise. Thoughts - MJO Phase 8 to 1 may trump a slightly + NAO and a neutral or slightly -PNA, but only for a very brief period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Ok. Then why did you say it was close? Close to what?at 500 its not that far off from a miller a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Euro ensembles day 11-15 keep temps below normal in the east. For now, brief warm up to start the week then back below normal again by the end of the work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Since I didn't see anyone post the Euro weeklies it pretty much keeps the SE seasonal with a few short warm ups which is about normal. It did have a big dog snow storm on the EPS run for late Feb....but you know that's like thinking the hot chick at the bar will talk to you sober. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Since I didn't see anyone post the Euro weeklies it pretty much keeps the SE seasonal with a few short warm ups which is about normal. It did have a big dog snow storm on the EPS run for late Feb....but you know that's like thinking the hot chick at the bar will talk to you sober. Funny how when feb rolls around I give up on weeklies and all the tc stuff. We've got 4-6 weeks left to score. Once that groundhog makes the opening news story it's all about chasing the big daddy for me. With the sun angles and climo it becomes harder to sustain a snowpack for more tha a couple of days so instead of getting the locked in favorable pattern that last a few weeks I'm just hoping to catch one good smack down to help mentally get through the upcoming dog days. First shot will be late next week. Hopefully we will be hearing the models, euro and its ensembles barking Sunday into Monday. Then it will be game on again. I haven't been sleigh riding with the kids in 2. Years now as we'll as see the ponds frozen up. Those have always been annual occurrences. The pond has a shot to get some ice around the edges by Saturday morning or Sunday a.m. This will most likely be the last shot to see that happen until next winter because feb looks to be up and down very 3 or so days in the temp regime scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Here's CPC's aftn prog for day 6-10 based on a model blend. This is a pretty good look for a scenario where you don't have a -NAO. 8-14 day prog is similar. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/507/cpc8.png/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 300 PM EST THU JANUARY 24 2013 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 03, 2013 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HIGH-RESOLUTION RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA REGION. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN, WITH A MODERATE RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST, A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, AND THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED JUST NORTH OF HUDSON BAY. THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF RUN AND THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH PREDICT A LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN ALASKA. ALL AVAILABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS. THESE AREAS ROUGHLY CORRESPOND TO THE PREDICTED REGIONS OF BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT PROG. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THESE AREAS OF RELATIVE WETNESS ARE GENERALLY ATTRIBUTED TO SOUTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW AND/OR PROXIMITY TO STORM TRACKS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 07 2013 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN DURING WEEK 2. IN GENERAL, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ANTICIPATE A RIDGE NEAR OR ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS ALASKA, AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN, SIMILAR TO THE CIRCULATION PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, FAVORS ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LARGE AREA OF COVERAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND NORTHWESTERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW. THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, MOST OF THE OHIO VALLEY, THE APPALACHIANS, THE EAST COAST STATES, AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THESE AREAS ARE GENERALLY ALONG THE PREDICTED LOCATION OF THE AVERAGE STORM TRACK AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Here's CPC's aftn prog for day 6-10 based on a model blend. This is a pretty good look for a scenario where you don't have a -NAO. 8-14 day prog is similar. Nice analogs showing up, no big dogs but lots of events ping pong around those dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 0z gfs op playing it up for next sat right along with the 12z euro. Boy does it get cold and stay cold in nc from Thursday on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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