JQPublic Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Actually, the daytime high at RDU was 38. The high was reached at midnight. ahh! makes sense...thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 how does the lr look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I've been watching that for a while now. It was a low crossing Fla a number of days ago. Then it went bye, then it came back as a low across N.Ga., then later back into Fla. Then it went bye again, only to show up as a low across Fla on Feb1/2. Meanwhile the GFS was trying to get a split flow going, and once it had a 50/50 low too. And all the while a pretty good high has been showing up too. Now, we just need to get all these things together, and you might want to come visit Grandma. The overall look has been supressed more than not, the whiole time I've watched this one, lol. Just screaming about rain coming across a cold mass in place, with more coming down. This is the one I believe in, and might set to Moles on before long. Tony Visit Grandma and follow the storm all the way back to RDU sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 how does the lr look It looks about 6-15 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Earlier this week, highs for this weekend in the NC High Country were forecast around 10 degrees for Saturday. Now considerably warmer with high of around 24 on Saturday. Cold relaxed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The real cold has been absent in the south...but at least we have a couple of weeks of some good potential for some frozen precip. Whether or not we ever get a real cold shot remains to be seen. However, I was up in Knoxville last night and there is still snow on the ground in shady spots...so it has not been a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Still looking good going in to February on the GFS Ensembles. Hopefully we'll starting looking more into the coming weeks after we get past the virga storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Still looking good going in to February on the GFS Ensembles. Hopefully we'll starting looking more into the coming weeks after we get past the virga storm! I REALLY like the look of the +PNA and east coast trough for the first part of Feb. It's FINALLY in a better position to deliver a nice storm for the SE. For the past couple of weeks the trough axis has been too far east. If guidance is correct, then the axis looks to finally set up shop over Ms/Al and into the Gulf. We shall see what develops.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I REALLY like the look of the +PNA and east coast trough for the first part of Feb. It's FINALLY in a better position to deliver a nice storm for the SE. For the past couple of weeks the trough axis has been too far east. If guidance is correct, then the axis looks to finally set up shop over Ms/Al and into the Gulf. We shall see what develops.... Get that trough axis backed up west a little more (Louisiana or so), give us moist WSW 500 mb flow overrunning cold surface air, and keep the cold surface highs coming down from the northern Plains into the Midwest and you have a decent shot at a northern GOM traversing Miller A that could give a decent portion of the SE US a significant wintry event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The new run of CFSv2 looks pretty cold for the month of Feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The new run of CFSv2 looks pretty cold for the month of Feb! Can you post a pic or provide a link? The most recent runs of the Euro and GFS have the deeper south east in the oven. I'm wondering if that is an across the board model consensus at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Can you post a pic or provide a link? The most recent runs of the Euro and GFS have the deeper south east in the oven. I'm wondering if that is an across the board model consensus at this point. I looked at it on a pay site, I don't think I'm allowed to post it? But really not sure? It may be free out there some where? I wouldn't mind posting it, just not sure if it's ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I looked at it on a pay site, I don't think I'm allowed to post it? But really not sure? It may be free out there some where? I wouldn't mind posting it, just not sure if it's ok? Don't post from pay sites...though a few seem to get away with it here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Don't post from pay sites...though a few seem to get away with it here... Mr. Bob, Here's to hoping we will have something to talk about in February. These nickel and dime events help pass time but I am looking forward to a little more on the substantial side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Can you post a pic or provide a link? The most recent runs of the Euro and GFS have the deeper south east in the oven. I'm wondering if that is an across the board model consensus at this point. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS is sending some major cold into the east out past 170hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12Z GFS looks good just past 7 days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The models have had a big lakes cutter/apps runner storm for a few days now. After that storm and the associated front pass us the cold air has a green light to go into the US. Both the Euro and the GFS also still energy in the gulf in early February. While the timing is a bit different (0z Euro has the energy coming through 2/1-2, 12z GFS has it coming through 2/3-4), it corresponds with the 2/2 time frame as a possible date for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Major warm-up going into next week...from 30s to 60s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nice little discussion about the MJO and the brief warm up week in the Philly Board. It seems from HM that the STJ will start to cooperate right on time in early February. That along with a nice PNA and nicely positioned trough as advertised in the ensembles, and we may be in business. Would love for CLT to get one good storm that week and I'm good. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38643-medium-range-long-range-thread/page-23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Phases one and two are wet for the southeast. We are heading into phades 8 now which is a dry phase but cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The real cold has been absent in the south...but at least we have a couple of weeks of some good potential for some frozen precip. Whether or not we ever get a real cold shot remains to be seen. However, I was up in Knoxville last night and there is still snow on the ground in shady spots...so it has not been a torch. Yeah, the only thing missing is a deep shot..down to the gulf. The cold air has been shunting by, only sideswiping Ala/Ga.. I think things may turn around once we get some cold down to the ocean...if we get some cold down to the ocean T Edit: Meanwhile it's nearly 62 now. Gets cool in the evenings, but the days are hot. I won't feel right until I get some highs in the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Phases one and two are wet for the southeast. We are heading into phades 8 now which is a dry phase but cold. I don't know it seems the discussion has been the waves that push this thing has been underestimated and we could move pretty good through 8 to 1 it (if it's truly faster) in the next couple of weeks. It might not line up perfectly with the 2/2 timeframe but perhaps a few days later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nice little discussion about the MJO and the brief warm up week in the Philly Board. It seems from HM (Wes?) that the STJ will start to cooperate right on time in early February. That along with a nice PNA and nicely positioned trough as advertised in the ensembles, and we may be in business. Would love for CLT to get one good storm that week and I'm good. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38643-medium-range-long-range-thread/page-23 HM is not Wes. Wes is usedtobe as in "used to be a meteorologist". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Euro looks like it is getting interesting out at 168...has energy coming west ...we'll see where it goes. Of course it will probably show something good while I'm out in California! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Euro looks like it is getting interesting out at 168...has energy coming west ...we'll see where it goes. Of course it will probably show something good while I'm out in California! We really need to see more ridging out west, but the closed low does look pretty strong at 168. Will be interesing to see if we can pop a ridge on the west coast at the same time that's coming east. (assuming it doesn't get held back there and rot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We really need to see more ridging out west, but the closed low does look pretty strong at 168. Will be interesing to see if we can pop a ridge on the west coast at the same time that's coming east. (assuming it doesn't get held back there and rot) Yea out to 192 looks like it won't be cold enough and there isn't enough there to keep it suppressed to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The ensembles looked really good last night on all the major models GFS, GGEM, and EURO. Nice ridging out west, trough axis in a really good spot, and some higher than normal pressures in Greenland. Give me that look, and throw in a little split flow and we would at the very least have a reason to be optimisic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z euro is much different than 00z . if we had the ridge from 00z this run would be great lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Euro outlying days...weenie time! Head for the hills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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