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January Pattern and Storm Discussion II


Cold Rain

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I've been watching that for a while now.  It was a low crossing Fla a number of days ago.  Then it went bye, then it came back as a low across N.Ga., then later back into Fla.  Then it went bye again, only to show up as a low across Fla on Feb1/2.  Meanwhile the GFS was trying to get a split flow going, and once it had a 50/50 low too.  And all the while a pretty good high has been showing up too.  Now, we just need to get all these things together, and you might want to come visit Grandma.  The overall look has been supressed more than not, the whiole time I've watched this one, lol.  Just screaming about rain coming across a cold mass in place, with more coming down.  This is the one I believe in, and might set to Moles on before long.  Tony

 

Visit Grandma and follow the storm all the way back to RDU sounds good to me!

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The real cold has been absent in the south...but at least we have a couple of weeks of some good potential for some frozen precip. Whether or not we ever get a real cold shot remains to be seen. However, I was up in Knoxville last night and there is still snow on the ground in shady spots...so it has not been a torch.

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Still looking good going in to February on the GFS Ensembles.  Hopefully we'll starting looking more into the coming weeks after we get past the virga storm!

 

BRhQxf5l.gif

 

I REALLY like the look of the +PNA and east coast trough for the first part of Feb. It's FINALLY in a better position to deliver a nice storm for the SE. For the past couple of weeks the trough axis has been too far east. If guidance is correct, then the axis looks to finally set up shop over Ms/Al and into the Gulf. We shall see what develops....

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I REALLY like the look of the +PNA and east coast trough for the first part of Feb. It's FINALLY in a better position to deliver a nice storm for the SE. For the past couple of weeks the trough axis has been too far east. If guidance is correct, then the axis looks to finally set up shop over Ms/Al and into the Gulf. We shall see what develops....

Get that trough axis backed up west a little more (Louisiana or so), give us moist WSW 500 mb flow overrunning cold surface air, and keep the cold surface highs coming down from the northern Plains into the Midwest and you have a decent shot at a northern GOM traversing Miller A that could give a decent portion of the SE US a significant wintry event.

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Can you post a pic or provide a link?

 

The most recent runs of the Euro and GFS have the deeper south east in the oven. I'm wondering if that is an across the board model consensus at this point.

 

I looked at it on a pay site, I don't think I'm allowed to post it? But really not sure? It may be free out there some where? I wouldn't mind posting it, just not sure if it's ok?

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The models have had a big lakes cutter/apps runner storm for a few days now. After that storm and the associated front pass us the cold air has a green light to go into the US. Both the Euro and the GFS also still energy in the gulf in early February. While the timing is a bit different (0z Euro has the energy coming through 2/1-2, 12z GFS has it coming through 2/3-4), it corresponds with the 2/2 time frame as a possible date for a big storm.

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Nice little discussion about the  MJO and the brief warm up week in the Philly Board.  It seems from HM that the STJ will start to cooperate right on time in early February.  That along with a nice PNA and nicely positioned trough as advertised in the ensembles, and we may be in business.  Would love for CLT to get one good storm that week and I'm good. 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38643-medium-range-long-range-thread/page-23

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The real cold has been absent in the south...but at least we have a couple of weeks of some good potential for some frozen precip. Whether or not we ever get a real cold shot remains to be seen. However, I was up in Knoxville last night and there is still snow on the ground in shady spots...so it has not been a torch.

Yeah, the only thing missing is a deep shot..down to the gulf.  The cold air has been shunting by, only sideswiping Ala/Ga..  I think things may turn around once we get some cold down to the ocean...if we get some cold down to the ocean :)  T

  Edit:  Meanwhile it's nearly 62 now.  Gets cool in the evenings, but the days are hot.  I won't feel right until I get some highs in the 30's.

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Phases one and two are wet for the southeast. We are heading into phades 8 now which is a dry phase but cold.

 

I don't know it seems the discussion has been the waves that push this thing has been underestimated and we could move pretty good through 8 to 1 it (if it's truly faster) in the next couple of weeks.  It might not line up perfectly with the 2/2 timeframe but perhaps a few days later? 

 

qCrLhR9l.gif

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Nice little discussion about the  MJO and the brief warm up week in the Philly Board.  It seems from HM (Wes?) that the STJ will start to cooperate right on time in early February.  That along with a nice PNA and nicely positioned trough as advertised in the ensembles, and we may be in business.  Would love for CLT to get one good storm that week and I'm good. 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38643-medium-range-long-range-thread/page-23

 

HM is not Wes. Wes is usedtobe as in "used to be a meteorologist". 

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Euro looks like it is getting interesting out at 168...has energy coming west ...we'll see where it goes. Of course it will probably show something good while I'm out in California! 

 

We really need to see more ridging out west, but the closed low does look pretty strong at 168. Will be interesing to see if we can pop a ridge on the west coast at the same time that's coming east. (assuming it doesn't get held back there and rot)

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We really need to see more ridging out west, but the closed low does look pretty strong at 168. Will be interesing to see if we can pop a ridge on the west coast at the same time that's coming east. (assuming it doesn't get held back there and rot)

 

Yea out to 192 looks like it won't be cold enough and there isn't enough there to keep it suppressed to the south. 

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