Solak Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Our updated forecast for Friday/Fri night just sounds nasty here around Clayton. Friday A slight chance of snow and freezing rain before 11am, then rain or freezing rain likely between 11am and 2pm, then rain likely after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night Rain likely before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Then you click for our daughter's location 10 miles to our NW Friday Snow and sleet likely before 2pm, then snow and freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night Snow and freezing rain likely before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Good read on some potential winter events for the next several weeks. http://www.climatecentral.org/news/stratospheric-phenomenon-is-bringing-frigid-cold-to-us-15479 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 A notable post from DonS and a thread to watch pertaining to the upcoming pattern: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/?p=2033252 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38973-extreme-amplitude-gwo-cycle-in-progress/ I have a lot to learn on the subject, but it looks like we have a high amplitude GWO cycle in progress that, I believe will cycle into the high AAM phases (5-8) which are El-Nino like...which I would think means increased potential for +PNA / -NAO / increased subtropical jet...but again, take a look at that thread. Some high-level info on the GWO phases - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gwo_maproom_new.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 A notable post from DonS and a thread to watch pertaining to the upcoming pattern: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/?p=2033252 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38973-extreme-amplitude-gwo-cycle-in-progress/ I have a lot to learn on the subject, but it looks like we have a high amplitude GWO cycle in progress that, I believe will cycle into the high AAM phases (5-8) which are El-Nino like...which I would think means increased potential for +PNA / -NAO / increased subtropical jet...but again, take a look at that thread. Some high-level info on the GWO phases - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gwo_maproom_new.htm First thread I read... always. I've added the CPC Prognostic Discussion on my site. Took me a while to find it! http://www.daculaweather.com/4_cpc_extended_disco.php It updates between 3-4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Now that we are within the time frame that we were questioning regarding the CFS and E. weekiles and their prog for a cold close to January (weeks 3 and 4), the evidence is academic at this point. 3 weeks ago most of us had doubts about the cold that the CFS was advertising beyond January 20th or so. I do not doubt anymore. In fact, the timing is eerily good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 A notable post from DonS and a thread to watch pertaining to the upcoming pattern: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/?p=2033252 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38973-extreme-amplitude-gwo-cycle-in-progress/ I have a lot to learn on the subject, but it looks like we have a high amplitude GWO cycle in progress that, I believe will cycle into the high AAM phases (5-8) which are El-Nino like...which I would think means increased potential for +PNA / -NAO / increased subtropical jet...but again, take a look at that thread. Some high-level info on the GWO phases - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gwo_maproom_new.htm Great information from Don. Sounds like now to mid February will be at LEAST favorable for potential winter weather. If he's on board, I'm going to keep hoping. He's amazingly accurate with his forecasts. Frankly I have no idea what they're talking about with the AAM phases but they sound excited! Has to be good right? Starting to think if we can get a good phase of the MJO that could pump up a nice tall +PNA ridge and a bit of blocking, we could get a nice Miller A some time in the next couple of weeks. Seems like we're heading into the most favorable few weeks of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12Z GFS has a Gulf Low on day 7 that could be our next threat...if the timing comes together it has big dog potential given this particular run. By day 8...verbatim it's too warm for most but the look is intriguing. Timing, as always...will be the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Book a big dog for 2/2 as I have a big show that night Jk it does look interesting though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Woof. Should be fun to watch this monster unfolds over the next 7-8 days.. 12Z GFS has a Gulf Low on day 7 that could be our next threat...if the timing comes together it has big dog potential given this particular run. By day 8...verbatim it's too warm for most but the look is intriguing. Timing, as always...will be the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Actually had it yesterday. Ji started a thread in MA to cure his depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z ensemble mean valid 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Book a big dog for 2/2 as I have a big show that night Jk it does look interesting though I agree eyewall...I've been looking at the 2/2 timeframe also. I do believe there will be a storm during that time, it's just a matter if the cold will cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12z ensemble mean valid 192 hours. That's a really good look for a miller A. The trough axis looks like its in great position! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 12Z GFS has a Gulf Low on day 7 that could be our next threat...if the timing comes together it has big dog potential given this particular run. By day 8...verbatim it's too warm for most but the look is intriguing. Timing, as always...will be the key. Don't look now but Euro has something brewing around that same time frame as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That's a really good look for a miller A. The trough axis looks like its in great position! That does look like a good setup. The Euro doesn't look as good, to me, for next week. Too warm and it appears that the orientation of the front is too flat. Hour 192 is not available yet, so we will see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Don't look now but Euro has something brewing around that same time frame as well. Yes it does. Overall it looks like we will have something to track again shortly (regardless of how this fizzler shakes out). I am encouraged by the MJO and the modeling beginning to come around to the look of "potential" around the beginning of February. Great PNA beginning to show toward day 7, terrific setup to deliver cold and a vigorous shortwave coming underneath the ridging out west. Combine that with a 50/50 and ridging in Greenland and we are soon going to have a lot of fun with something pretty major to follow.........JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yes it does. Overall it looks like we will have something to track again shortly (regardless of how this fizzler shakes out). I am encouraged by the MJO and the modeling beginning to come around to the look of "potential" around the beginning of February. Great PNA beginning to show toward day 7, terrific setup to deliver cold and a vigorous shortwave coming underneath the ridging out west. Combine that with a 50/50 and ridging in Greenland and we are soon going to have a lot of fun with something pretty major to follow.........JMO Gotta think Euro was being to progressive with that wave in the gulf.....difficult to say for sure but I'm with you it certainly looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Gotta think Euro was being to progressive with that wave in the gulf.....difficult to say for sure but I'm with you it certainly looks interesting. what did the euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Seriously guys, it would not take much of a tweak of the 12z Euro to produce a bomb somewhere in the east. If we could get that shortwave coming into California to eject into the southern plains and Texas, and the vort diving down the east side of the Rockies to be a little slower and diving down into it a bit further east (around or just east of the MS river)................it would capture it and produced a nice snowstorm somewhere in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Seriously guys, it would not take much of a tweak of the 12z Euro to produce a bomb somewhere in the east. If we could get that shortwave coming into California to eject into the southern plains and Texas, and the vort diving down the east side of the Rockies to be a little slower and diving down into it a bit further east (around or just east of the MS river)................it would capture it and produced a nice snowstorm somewhere in the east. Everything seems to point to the first 2 weeks of February being fun times. MJO phases, +PNA, -NAO and it looked like a split flow on the GFS ENS but I could be wrong. I can't recall when the last time we had the MJO on our side. Wasn't it in the COD all last year? In any event it's going to be fun when the EURO first catches sight of a big dog. Those are great fun to follow. Hopefully the 2/2 storm will bear fruit. Maybe a Met can chime in and give us an overview on why this time frame would be favorable and what to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Everything seems to point to the first 2 weeks of February being fun times. MJO phases, +PNA, -NAO and it looked like a split flow on the GFS ENS but I could be wrong. I can't recall when the last time we had the MJO on our side. Wasn't it in the COD all last year? In any event it's going to be fun when the EURO first catches sight of a big dog. Those are great fun to follow. Hopefully the 2/2 storm will bear fruit. Maybe a Met can chime in and give us an overview on why this time frame would be favorable and what to look for. What, you don't trust my explanation above?? haha and j/k. Climatology is also on our side as the first two weeks of February have provided many snows for our area. Verbatim, the Euro run didn't look "great", as it looked to start phasing the streams too far to our west.........but my contention is that it wouldn't take much of a correction to produce a nice snowstorm for someone from the southern plains to the east coast, including parts of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What, you don't trust my explanation above?? haha and j/k. Climatology is also on our side as the first two weeks of February have provided many snows for our area. Verbatim, the Euro run didn't look "great", as it looked to start phasing the streams too far to our west.........but my contention is that it wouldn't take much of a correction to produce a nice snowstorm for someone from the southern plains to the east coast, including parts of the SE. I'll be interested to see the Euro vort 5h maps....SV is really not that good...but I would guess the Euro is holding to it's bias of being too progressive which is why the storm in the GOM never gets it's act together. Of course it's so far out it will probably go POOF by tomorrow but still fun to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'll be interested to see the Euro vort 5h maps....SV is really not that good...but I would guess the Euro is holding to it's bias of being too progressive which is why the storm in the GOM never gets it's act together. Of course it's so far out it will probably go POOF by tomorrow but still fun to think about. what days are we talking?? 8 9? end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What, you don't trust my explanation above?? haha and j/k. Climatology is also on our side as the first two weeks of February have provided many snows for our area. Verbatim, the Euro run didn't look "great", as it looked to start phasing the streams too far to our west.........but my contention is that it wouldn't take much of a correction to produce a nice snowstorm for someone from the southern plains to the east coast, including parts of the SE. LOL, no I was just thinking about specifics. Does the ridge need to be taller, does the 50/50 need to be more south; that kind of thing. Overall I think we'll have a decent set up but it's the devil in the details and I'm interested in seeing if they come together. Does a MJO phase 8-2 give us a good shot at keeping the good +PNA and an active southern jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Even with MJO forecast to go 8 into 1, it seems my far southeast bastion will not get a good freeze (much less our normal few) this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 LOL, no I was just thinking about specifics. Does the ridge need to be taller, does the 50/50 need to be more south; that kind of thing. Overall I think we'll have a decent set up but it's the devil in the details and I'm interested in seeing if they come together. Does a MJO phase 8-2 give us a good shot at keeping the good +PNA and an active southern jet? I'd like to see a stout -NAO develop. We have cold air in Canada now, so a -NAO would press the cold south unlike what we saw in December. I have doubts about an active subtropical jet / southern stream developing underneath +PNA ridging, but it would be nice. I'd like to see the cold air come from a solid -AO/-NAO, but with a more neutral Pacific, where we see northern stream energy split off from the northern branch and dive down into the southern plains. An overpowering, full west coast +PNA ridge would be cold, but dry...with northwest flow through the central U.S...I can dream all this up anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Surprised no one mentioned the euro ensembles. Classic mjo phase 8 500mb pattern showing up. Could it be a fab feb? Stayed tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Surprised no one mentioned the euro ensembles. Classic mjo phase 8 500mb pattern showing up. Could it be a fab feb? Stayed tuned. bring it. Models look to be coming around to his thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 coming back south for work meetings and visit friends in ATL 2/3-2/7 any chances on flakeage? I feel so removed from SE WX now that im on the west coast (literally moved from one block of the Atlantic in NMB, SC to one block from the Pacific in Santa Cruz, CA) Weather is perfect (yet kinda boring) out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I agree eyewall...I've been looking at the 2/2 timeframe also. I do believe there will be a storm during that time, it's just a matter if the cold will cooperate. I've been watching that for a while now. It was a low crossing Fla a number of days ago. Then it went bye, then it came back as a low across N.Ga., then later back into Fla. Then it went bye again, only to show up as a low across Fla on Feb1/2. Meanwhile the GFS was trying to get a split flow going, and once it had a 50/50 low too. And all the while a pretty good high has been showing up too. Now, we just need to get all these things together, and you might want to come visit Grandma. The overall look has been supressed more than not, the whiole time I've watched this one, lol. Just screaming about rain coming across a cold mass in place, with more coming down. This is the one I believe in, and might set to Moles on before long. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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