Marion_NC_WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Does anybody have a problem if I start a dedicated thread to Friday's event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Does anybody have a problem if I start a dedicated thread to Friday's event? please do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 get after it Dan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The GFS just appears to be a mess to me. I don't think it quite knows how to handle this. Also the parent high is weak and wouldn't sustain much of a wedge (in-situ more than anything else as opposed to truly classical or hybrid). The 1030's high in the Northern Plains is not in a good CAD spot obviously as well. The Euro has a stronger 1030's parent high to start but it doesn't sustain itself as it drifts east and our storm develops (I don't have full access unfortunately so can't see the inbetween time stamps). It is showing a better defined Miller B transitioning to a single and much more robust coastal low as compared to the GFS. So where does this leave us? At low confidence waiting for this afternoon's Euro and future GFS runs to see if it can get a better handle. PS: If you want a real solid CAD event you want to see a parent high of at least 1035 mb and ideally 1040's or better. Eyewall, I think we have a somewhat better picture as of right now pending the Euro I think you see most models (Global ones anyhow) attempting to amp this thing up a little more in the 12z suite. Although the NAM is completely out of its wheelhouse at this juncture you can see that it mildly attempts to side more with the global models. I am very positive for the fact that the GGEM UKMET and CANADIAN models show at least a moderate QPF event with very cold temps before the event kicks off. I guess at this point anyone here would take whatever they could get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Eyewall, I think we have a somewhat better picture as of right now pending the Euro I think you see most models (Global ones anyhow) attempting to amp this thing up a little more in the 12z suite. Although the NAM is completely out of its wheelhouse at this juncture you can see that it mildly attempts to side more with the global models. I am very positive for the fact that the GGEM UKMET and CANADIAN models show at least a moderate QPF event with very cold temps before the event kicks off. I guess at this point anyone here would take whatever they could get. I agree it is a dismal winter where one can't be picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1057 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013VALID 12Z FRI JAN 25 2013 - 12Z TUE JAN 29 2013THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGER SCALE ASPECTS OF THE MEDIUMRANGE FCST. HOWEVER DETAIL ISSUES CONTINUE TO GENERATESIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH MORE LOCALLY IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THESYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ERN STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OFTHE PERIOD... AND THERE IS AT LEAST MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITHRESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION WITHIN THE OVERALL TROF FCSTTO MOVE INTO/THRU THE WEST SUN ONWARD. CORRESPONDING TO THISLATTER ISSUE THERE ARE ALSO QUESTION MARKS WITH THE ULTIMATEPROGRESSION OF NRN STREAM FLOW/ASSOC SFC PATTERN ALONG THEUS-CANADIAN BORDER BY NEXT MON-TUE. EVALUATION OF LATEST GUIDANCEFOR SYSTEMS OF INTEREST LEADS TO FAVORING A 70/30 BLEND OF THE 00ZECMWF MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN FOR DAYS 3-4 FRI-SAT WITH 30 PCT OF THE00Z ECMWF INCLUDED WITH A 40/30 WEIGHTING OF THE AFOREMENTIONEDMEANS TO ADD SOME DETAIL BY DAYS 5-7 SUN-TUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Here ya go boys and girls...hope I'm bringing the mojo.http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38965-jan-25th-winter-weather-discussion-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS is at 25/2 at 12z on Friday Morning in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 HM is worried that we finally get to MJO 8-1-2 but than we get a +NAO and thus SE ridge for early Feb I guess we can start worrying about that next week though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I really do not care about this next system since the cold blast behind it looks like it will not materialize here- we barely made it below 30 this AM and it was still the coldest this season, tonight we may sneak down to 27 or so....yawn. Then the pattern of course reverses after the next storm, time is running out for us in GA. I say bring on severe weather, this "winter" has blown chunks. Only saving grace, rainfall has been good so far, helps out the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Nice write-up Allan. Indeed, MJO headed for Phase 8 in early Feb per phase charts. Overnight superensemble mean for day 8-14 is chilly. That looks great! Hopefully that Alaska ridging and Greenland blocking shows up. Pretty cold analogs too if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I really do not care about this next system since the cold blast behind it looks like it will not materialize here- we barely made it below 30 this AM and it was still the coldest this season, tonight we may sneak down to 27 or so....yawn. Then the pattern of course reverses after the next storm, time is running out for us in GA. I say bring on severe weather, this "winter" has blown chunks. Only saving grace, rainfall has been good so far, helps out the drought. Almost an exact repeat of last winter if you ask me. Maybe even a tad warmer than last winter. At least last winter, Atlanta got into the teens I believe. This winter, I doubt Atlanta gets below 26 or 27. It's the end of January and we are still waiting for the first really cold air to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS Ensembles don't look too bad for early February...some weak ridging on the west coast extending up into Alaska with somewhat of a block over Greenland and a strong trough in the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Look out for a flizzard prior to the Friday event: From RAH: MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLYLATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS THE NORTH...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHINGBACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED THROUGH THE REGIONWEDNESDAY NIGHT BY ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWNFROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FRONTIS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SOME OF THE HI RESREFLECTIVITY MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSSTHE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTSHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILLREMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENERGYMAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH.THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT IF ANY PRECIP DOESOCCUR...IT MAY JUST BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES...AS OVERNIGHTLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Haha, nice eyewall. I will have my eyes peeled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 LR Euro Ens look pretty good. Eastern trough, huge +PNA. The NAO looks weakly negative. Would still need good timing in that pattern, but at least there should be opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 LR Euro Ens look pretty good. Eastern trough, huge +PNA. The NAO looks weakly negative. Would still need good timing in that pattern, but at least there should be opportunities. -ao and mjo ging into the snowy east coast phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKNWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 22 2013 THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS FOR WEEK 2 HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF ALASKA. THE GFS, EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN-BASED MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REACH THE WEST COAST, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN. HAVING TWO DISTINCT POLAR VORTICES PREDICTED IN THE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD (ONE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY, AND THE OTHER CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF RUSSIA), WOULD ENABLE DELIVERY OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ENHANCED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THIS PERIOD, IN ADVANCE OF THE ANTICIPATED ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE EXPECTED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THIS VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN TEMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS, AND MAY BE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY INDICATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKNWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 22 2013 THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS FOR WEEK 2 HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF ALASKA. THE GFS, EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN-BASED MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REACH THE WEST COAST, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN. HAVING TWO DISTINCT POLAR VORTICES PREDICTED IN THE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD (ONE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY, AND THE OTHER CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF RUSSIA), WOULD ENABLE DELIVERY OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ENHANCED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THIS PERIOD, IN ADVANCE OF THE ANTICIPATED ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE EXPECTED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THIS VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN TEMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS, AND MAY BE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY INDICATED. VERY significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 And we're talking WAY below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 We need some above normal precip to go with that, but unfortunately, that kind of cold usually results in dry conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 And we're talking WAY below Is there anything to indicate that the southern jet will be active in this next two weeks? I think in the MJO phase 8 it is active so I would hope that this is representative of a stormy pattern too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Isn't that trough centered too far east? That looks like dry northwesterly flow to me. Wouldn't we want that centered back over the Mississippi River? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We need some above normal precip to go with that, but unfortunately, that kind of cold usually results in dry conditions. Yeah, we have to get it just right most of the time and always walk that line of too warm or too cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Mostly a dry look based on the analogs for this type of pattern but with an active MJO, I think we could see some action... CPC Day 8-14 Discussion: THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ALL AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THESE AREAS ARE GENERALLY ALONG THE PREDICTED LOCATION OF THE AVERAGE STORM TRACK AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE ODDS OF RECEIVING BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA, MUCH OF OREGON, CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND MOST OF TEXAS. THESE AREAS OF RELATIVE DRYNESS ARE DUE PRIMARILY TO NORTHWESTERLY (CONUS) OR NORTHEASTERLY (ALASKA) ANOMALOUS FLOW. ELSEWHERE, NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED. Is there anything to indicate that the southern jet will be active in this next two weeks? I think in the MJO phase 8 it is active so I would hope that this is representative of a stormy pattern too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I see signs of a possible big dog near Feb 2. Would also coincide with our newly established pattern of something developing at the end of every week. Just speculating of course...also saw the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Would you call a high of 42 a bust on the cold? That was a good 5 degrees higher than I was expecting. What say y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Would you call a high of 42 a bust on the cold? That was a good 5 degrees higher than I was expecting. What say y'all Typical. I think the RAH tends to overdo the cold in their forecasts. One thing they consistently do, for example, is drop temps after a marginal winter storm below freezing, and they almost always stay at or just above freezing the entire night. They did it with the last storm, predicting a low of 28 or 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yes...big dog looks very likely around February 2...also coincides with a very favorable MJO pulse that will be working its way into the eastern Pacific and Caribbean around that time...probably will be the biggest winter storm of the season I see signs of a possible big dog near Feb 2. Would also coincide with our newly established pattern of something developing at the end of every week. Just speculating of course...also saw the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Would you call a high of 42 a bust on the cold? That was a good 5 degrees higher than I was expecting. What say y'all Actually, the daytime high at RDU was 38. The high was reached at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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