beanskip Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Check the 84 hour NAM, I rely on it exclusively for accurate forecasts, along with Weather on the 8's. Not much was said about the 18z GFS...but it did trend better from 12z. Do any of the members look good for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 0z NAM seems to have a CAD signature setting up, too. Looks like it could start out as sleet or freezing rain in the NC foothills and Piedmont, though it is hard to say as the model doesn't run out far enough. Looks like light SE winds, though, so I doubt it holds long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 0z NAM seems to have a CAD signature setting up, too. Looks like it could start out as sleet or freezing rain in the NC foothills and Piedmont, though it is hard to say as the model doesn't run out far enough. Those southerly winds just scream CAD! But yeah that map is showing some very light freezing rain across portions of western NC. If that high could just stay in the northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Those southerly winds just scream CAD! But yeah that map is showing some very light freezing rain across portions of western NC. If that high could just stay in the northeast... Yeah. It seems like we always have the high pressure move away just before the storm comes in. It seems like we haven't had a legit CAD event that held strong here in years. In any case, it's the 84 hr NAM, so yeah. No reason to fret and the trend is our friend, it seems. EDIT: FOX 8 local news (Van Denton) is already advertising this threat for the weekend as one of their leading stories. I'm not sure if that's going to jinx this or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah. It seems like we always have the high pressure move away just before the storm comes in. It seems like we haven't had a legit CAD event that held strong here in years. Agreed its been a really long time since a real CAD event in the Piedmont especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 hour 81 on the NAM hinting at but not overdoing the qpf for a possible cad event? Will take the 100mi south shift trends. On to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the trends on the nam are amazing! the CAD is more pronounced! this is at hour 81. dont trust the precip though, barrier jets are hard to model. the start of the event looks promising IF the nam is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 00z GFS looks further south at 84...colder over NC, 0c line into SC. edit: close but no dice...low is weaker, although colder for the onset, 0c is further north as precip ends...also noticeably drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Slower and colder. Maybe the new sampled data will turn the lights on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Very similar to the 6z run....lets see what UK shows shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 hour 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Even though the surface map doesn't look all that threatening CADwise, I find it interesting that Gainseville and Cumming, GA, now actually have ZR as of 1 PM Friday 1/25 on the 0Z Tue GFS. Analogs say watch out for ZR in N GA around this time as I've mentioned. Let's see whether future runs trend more and more toward ZR here. Whereas I see no chance at snow, I do think that ZR is a threat, though still small right now, to much of N GA and other SE US CAD areas on 1/25 from this storm, especially when taking neutral negative ENSO and warm Dec. analogs as well as late January ZR climo into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I could see a little sleet at precip onset east of the mtns, but you can see with both the NAM and GFS that the winds turn southeasterly, so it should be a quick changeover...there really isn't much of a damming signature as the high to the N/NE is progressive and not locked in, and I don't see that changing. This looks very clipper-ish, in which case it all comes down to the strength and track of the 500mb vort max. East of the mtns, that vort max MUST be to your south in order to see any meaningful precip, and temps cold enough for snow...GFS is not even close in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 2m Surface temps from 84-96 hours during the bulk of the precip are at or just below freezing in CAD regions.... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps084.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps090.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Gotta admit, I'm a little surprised at how leisurely the 0z GFS is being taken by a lot of people on here. First off...tonight's run has pretty much kissed goodbye to any idea of temps along the I-40 cooridor moderating on Thursday. A couple days ago it looked like this blast would be Tuesday, Wednesday and then 40's on Thursday. That's no longer the case. Areas along the escarpment may spend little time between now and Friday's event above freezing. Then once we get to the event, the freezing line snakes its way into NE Georgia and hence the reference by our Georgia guru of some ice potential. By 96, precip is still falling in WNC and the temps IMBY finally get just above freeing by then.GFS shows maybe as much as .25 falling in frozen form by that point...I can tell you right now, with 3 below normal temp days coming up, that quarter-inch if its freezing rain will be a mess due to the much colder surface that will be established.I think the Euro and GFS are locking in on the airmass that has now entered the US and at the low levels could trend a bit colder over the next day or two. We better keep the QPF under control, if it starts ticking upward then we got a nasty ice storm coming for NC and northward. Even at this rate it could be somewhat disruptive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You guys are right, the GFS verbatim does show the cold air hanging on. I just question it, based on the SE winds. I think it's overdoing the amount of cold air there east of the mountains. If there was more of a damming look to the high, I could see it...but everything looks progressive to me with the high not locking in the NE sfc winds. The Canadian loop also shows several hours of freezing rain or mix, before a changeover to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Gotta admit, I'm a little surprised at how leisurely the 0z GFS is being taken by a lot of people on here. Even at this rate it could be somewhat disruptive. A sleet shower will impact schools/businesses here so I am watching any potential for freezing rain. You are right about surfaces getting COLD ahead of this thing...ground will chill for sure tomorrow in the CAD regions. I question how fast it gets rid of the CAD...idk...GFS is throwing us something new each run so I don't think this will be the last we hear of this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A sleet shower will impact schools/businesses here so I am watching any potential for freezing rain. You are right about surfaces getting COLD ahead of this thing...ground will chill for sure tomorrow in the CAD regions. I question how fast it gets rid of the CAD...idk...GFS is throwing us something new each run so I don't think this will be the last we hear of this potential. Man I swear you are worse than captain obvious, I don't think you have ever said something someone else didn't. Just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS looks amazing. the warm advection does not erode the CAD all the way. only up till the I40 corridor then shifts back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Man I swear you are worse than captain obvious, I don't think you have ever said something someone else didn't. Just sayin He's the John Madden of weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Per MeteoStar, there's actually some very light ZR as far south as Marietta (just NW of ATL) ~ 9 AM on 1/25 per the 0Z GFS! I reiterate that I realize that the setup is not at all that which is needed for an icestorm (SE sfc winds can't lock in the cold for any sig. length of time in GA and most other CAD areas), but will be watching to see whether or not future runs start shifting toward a more classic ZR look with more precip./stronger damming/E winds. There's still 84 hours to go and stranger things have happened in terms of changes within 84 hours. The analogs/climo tell me to hold onto a small chance for now. Let's see what 0Z Doc shows. Edit: 0Z Doc is a bit stronger with the NE high vs. the 12Z Doc and the result is slightly stronger wedging and a touch colder 2 meter temp.'s for 1/25. Let's see if this trend continues over the next couple of days. If it does, we may have problems for CAD areas come Friday due to sig. ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Based on the reaction in the MA subforum the euro held serve. It did increase QPF in VA. I'm only out to 66hrs. Definitely looks like the euro held serve, it's near hatteras at 96hrs. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Based on the reaction in the MA subforum the euro held serve. It did increase QPF in VA. I'm only out to 66hrs. Track near Nashville...big contrast with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So, the Doctor's prognosis sounds good? Any clue on P-types, QPF, etc. yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't feel like posting maps headed to bed... hour 93 2-3 inches from Wilkes westward, 1-2 out to Winston hour 96 1-2 inches northern foothills, 2-3 inches Winston/Greensboro north-east May miss the cities of Charlotte and Raleigh, but surrounding areas are close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So, the Doctor's prognosis sounds good? Any clue on P-types, QPF, etc. yet? Just looking at the wunderground maps it looks like a band of snow moves across N NC dropping 2-3" that's all irrelevant right now anyway. QPF looks pretty good this run .25-.50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just looking at the wunderground maps it looks like a band of snow moves across N NC dropping 2-3" that's all irrelevant right now anyway. QPF looks pretty good this run .25-.50+ It dips down close to CLT from my view. Honestly not much to count IMO, but everyone has a different opinion. I'm starting to think this may trend a bit cooler and get NE GA, NE SC and a good bit of NC with something Wintry. Models seem to be going colder, the GFS is known to break a CAD deal down too soon as said before, and the CMC also has a little bit of slush for North Central NC moving Eastward for a bit before turning back over to rainfall. CMC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Anybody hoping for ZR deserves a week long power outage. I'd rather have 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Anybody hoping for ZR deserves a week long power outage. ZR is gorgeous in moderation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Per MeteoStar, there's actually some very light ZR as far south as Marietta (just NW of ATL) ~ 9 AM on 1/25 per the 0Z GFS! I reiterate that I realize that the setup is not at all that which is needed for an icestorm (SE sfc winds can't lock in the cold for any sig. length of time in GA and most other CAD areas), but will be watching to see whether or not future runs start shifting toward a more classic ZR look with more precip./stronger damming/E winds. There's still 84 hours to go and stranger things have happened in terms of changes within 84 hours. The analogs/climo tell me to hold onto a small chance for now. Let's see what 0Z Doc shows. Edit: 0Z Doc is a bit stronger with the NE high vs. the 12Z Doc and the result is slightly stronger wedging and a touch colder 2 meter temp.'s for 1/25. Let's see if this trend continues over the next couple of days. If it does, we may have problems for CAD areas come Friday due to sig. ZR. Just .02 down here. I like the general look around months end. Some good rain, and some cold around. Be nice if that was still there in a week. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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