NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Well the one big drawback is as of now it seems that the Euro is the only one seeing this. Of course people will take their chances with the Euro, but you would like to see at least one more model jump on board. Throw us a glass of ice water since we will be under heat advisories this weekend and post the euro snow accum map for next Friday!. Today in NW-NC you can forget about the warmup. Rain in the 40's with a cool breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Throw us a glass of ice water since we will be under heat advisories this weekend and post the euro snow accum map for next Friday!. Today in NW-NC you can forget about the warmup. Rain in the 40's with a cool breeze. Snow map right now is nothing special to look at. Just about an inch for all of NC/SC. Hopefully it trends better as we move along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Snow map right now is nothing special to look at. Just about an inch for all of NC/SC. Hopefully it trends better as we move along I'd like to start seeing it trend colder but that's a double edged sword. To strong a push of cold air might force the track to far to the south. Still 7 days away so things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I am starting to feel optimistic about the death of the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I am starting to feel optimistic about the death of the SE ridge. I think with the dramatic discussions from last night that the SE ridge is the big question/focuse. I suppose we will find out what wins out in the next couple of days...meaning the models (agreeing with each other) will show it stronger or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Was looking at the 12Z GFS this morning in my 500mb loop. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_gfs_12_500_nws_loop.php On this run, it appears the 582 line begins moving south around hour 123. By hour 171 the 588 SE high has shifted NE of Cuba, and by hour 174, well out to sea. But like I said earlier, we STILL want this high down there to keep the cold honest and prevent storms from taking off to Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 New to the forum, hope I can add some insight. Pattern change coming and it looks legit. Will be interesting to see what effect the sudden stratospheric warming (ongoing) will have on our weather. Welcome aboard. You should update your location and other information so we will know where you are from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1249 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013VALID 12Z MON JAN 14 2013 - 12Z FRI JAN 18 2013...PATTERN SHIFT IN STORE FOR THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...OVERVIEW...THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE SETUP OVER THE CONUS IN THE SHORT TERMTHIS WEEKEND WILL FLIP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A PORTION OF THEPOLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO INVADE THENORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE STRONG RIDGE OVER FLORIDAAND THE BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1249 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013VALID 12Z MON JAN 14 2013 - 12Z FRI JAN 18 2013...PATTERN SHIFT IN STORE FOR THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...OVERVIEW...THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE SETUP OVER THE CONUS IN THE SHORT TERMTHIS WEEKEND WILL FLIP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A PORTION OF THEPOLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO INVADE THENORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE STRONG RIDGE OVER FLORIDAAND THE BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. That's the best news in months!! This weekend will provide ups and downs on each model run, hopefully the sign of a degrading or retreating ridge will continue. Not worried so much about the magical blue line and moisture at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 The Euro weeklies are optimistic in the death of the ridge for the rest of met winter....seasonal to cold through the 4 week period...however, on the Euro ens in the 11-15 day period there is not much super cold air left...even -20C 850 temps are hard to comeby once this batch comes through the GL and NE in the next week to 10 days. So we will probably deal with some marginal situations through the month of February...standard southern winter as opposed to the ridiculous torch of last winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 some GFS and Euro comparisons from 0z runs... both the GFS and Euro continue to indicate the west coast/PNA ridge sustaining itself nicely, especially at around hr 144 after flattening out a bit as the s/v in focus rounds the top of the ridge near southern Alaska and heads southeast from there... this is the same shortwave that will interact with the southern stream cutoff and has some sort of small chance of not getting crushed under the confluence of the polar vortex around the 18th (msuwx has also alluded to this)... will be interesting to see if the southern stream cutoff can stay strong enough underneath the vortex (which the Euro shows to some degree before shearing it out around the 18th and 19th) the 0z GFS is very optimistic about establishing a west-based block around Greenland between hours 216 and 240 (days 8-10) which would be what we want to see in setting the stage for re-inforcing shots of arctic air coming out of central and western Canada on the western side of the polar vortex essentially rolling over on itself... the 0z Euro has a block, but it isn't quite as pronounced... regardless, we are indeed headed toward a colder pattern (still, that doesn't necessarily mean sustained cold) since we have a precedent of it happening in the past, some of the arctic air underneath this vortex of Siberian-like air will inevitably sprawl out and press a bit further south that what current forecast models indicate due to the weight and density of it... also, the SOI seems to be moving back toward neutral a bit, but remains in a position to throw some love our way underneath the split flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 The Euro weeklies are optimistic in the death of the ridge for the rest of met winter....seasonal to cold through the 4 week period...however, on the Euro ens in the 11-15 day period there is not much super cold air left...even -20C 850 temps are hard to comeby once this batch comes through the GL and NE in the next week to 10 days. So we will probably deal with some marginal situations through the month of February...standard southern winter as opposed to the ridiculous torch of last winter... I agree with the marginal situations...this pattern change at the time does NOT just bring us into a snowy cold pattern. The pattern change stops this weekends 70 degree weather and sends us back into seasonable temps. And hopefully into a wetter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Finally, the strat graphs update. I won't show all the images here but here are the links: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series.php The strat is still warming in the upper levels from 5 to 1hPa, here's 1hPa. You'll notice in looking the time series graphs how the peaks are right up there with some of the highest. Right now it appears to be an average Major SSW. Here's the cross section graph The anomalies have been catching my eye though, for temp, wind, and pressure. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_details.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 The 0z Euro ENS mean is actually a hair wetter than the OP for the day 7-8 "event", I just checked CLT and RDU since it's a day 7 event but it's nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I remember Feb is always better for winter weather in North Carolina back in 96 in central North Carolina that was a wild month! I remember more Ice and Sleet than snow............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Besides the fact that the GFS lost the storm - I'm gaining confidence that some sort of disruptive wintry event will hit west and middle tn (and maybe north ms as well) Skew t's seem to suggest this would be sleet or freezing rain, but the snow algos are not in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Besides the fact that the GFS lost the storm - I'm gaining confidence that some sort of disruptive wintry event will hit west and middle tn (and maybe north ms as well) Skew t's seem to suggest this would be sleet or freezing rain, but the snow algos are not in agreement. For which storm? The Euro snowfall map looks nice for west Tenn for the storm on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Besides the fact that the GFS lost the storm - I'm gaining confidence that some sort of disruptive wintry event will hit west and middle tn (and maybe north ms as well) Skew t's seem to suggest this would be sleet or freezing rain, but the snow algos are not in agreement. One rule of thumb I keep in mind is that two back to back heavy QPF events usually do not pan out that way. Models will be much more aligned after the weekend heat wave and rain event early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 another confirmation http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38593-sudden-stratospheric-warming-begins-significant-cold-ahead-for-january-februarycross-polar-flow/page-2#entry1991775 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 another confirmation http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38593-sudden-stratospheric-warming-begins-significant-cold-ahead-for-january-februarycross-polar-flow/page-2#entry1991775 Excellent news, I believe, with respects to the long range pattern. Thanks for the excellent info and for keeping us informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Some decent agreement today in the strats. ECMWF is following the GFS on this,putting the 100hPa PV into the southern part of the Hudson Bay area around day 6-10.The upper levels around 10hPa are just getting shredded by the strong warming,whatever is left is floating down across the northern US. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 12z looks better than it has at 5h today. It's holding that energy back in the sw @102 instead of it all stretched out and moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 At 108 it looks like it is about to cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 At 108 it looks like it is about to cutoff. At 126 it's cutoff and is just spinning...if/when this thing ejects it could get fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 It doesn't look far off from the Euro now at 5h...the problem is on the GFS it's just sitting there with nothing to push it west. It's been in inching west and basically in the same spot for 15 hours on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Now it's rolling forward @144 let's see where this one leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 It doesn't look far off from the Euro now at 5h...the problem is on the GFS it's just sitting there with nothing to push it west. It's been in inching west and basically in the same spot for 15 hours on the GFS. I guess this could allow the cold air to bleed in before the low tracks east. Robert mentioned that with the Euro timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 We need a kicker...Do you think Sebastian Janikowski can come down from Oakland and give this thing a boot east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 @159 it's holding strong right over DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 GFS has this as a potent ULL affecting parts of TX/AR at 165....that being said it appears to have fallen to the Euro at least on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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