HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I was going to post a few days ago the trough axis on this one could favor some type of coastal genesis. We'll see what happens. Right now, looks like a pretty standard clipper type situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Nope, I think the infamous 1/2" was January 19, 2005 -- a separate event where the temps were in the mid 20s at lunchtime when it started snowing. The Jan 20th event was a midnight-ish/overnight event. Ah, I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I don't look at the NAM for 5+ day threats. It is better 1-2 days out IMO. You're kidding right? LOL, someone needs a lesson on Sarcasm. I saw the EPS run of the Euro and it did shift it south. I think you NC, TN, KY folks are in the game on this one, unfortunately I think us GA,SC,AL folks maybe out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 We were always out of this one unless a second wave of low pressure develops in the northern gulf and hangs up the front long enough to get moisture on top of the cold. We should move on, nothing to see here... You're kidding right? LOL, someone needs a lesson on Sarcasm. I saw the EPS run of the Euro and it did shift it south. I think you NC, TN, KY folks are in the game on this one, unfortunately I think us GA,SC,AL folks maybe out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's just very hard to get excited about a low coming through TN. Just check the Euro EPS control run and it does shift snow south of I-40....guess we will wait and see. I agree. These clipper/miller B type events never really produce for us here in the SE. Does this storm have more potential to dig farther S, and tap into the Gulf? Or is that not possible due to weak ridging out in the W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 We were always out of this one unless a second wave of low pressure develops in the northern gulf and hangs up the front long enough to get moisture on top of the cold. We should move on, nothing to see here... I agree, I'm close enough though I would chase to the mountains if it were feasible. But that's not looking to good either (talking about north GA mtns). I know the Euro gave a little blip of an inch in Extreme NE GA, but not liking the chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Just a small difference in the GFS and Euro...the 12z/18z GFS has the low tracking over NJ/MD at 0z Sat and the 12z Euro has it in southern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 I agree. These clipper/miller B type events never really produce for us here in the SE. Does this storm have more potential to dig farther S, and tap into the Gulf? Or is that not possible due to weak ridging out in the W? There's probably only so far south the wave can dig due to the ridge out west. It's not very sharp or tall, which is probably due to the PV hanging out just east of Alaska. Doesn't mean the models are exactly right with their placement and orientation of PVs/ridges/shortwaves 4-5 days out, but generally, you'll want to watch for a sharper, taller ridge out west and a little more confluence in the NE. There's still plenty of time for things to change more favorably...or for the worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 One key is the GFS has the parent high 10mb weaker than the Euro or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 RAH is still waiting to see what model has the best grasp of the situation: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS ONTHURSDAY IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS ITPROGRESSES EASTWARD...MEETING UP WITH THE LINGERING COLD UPPERTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BESPARSE...BEFORE A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG THE SOUTHERNPLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL GIVE RISE TO AN EXPANDING(MORE ORGANIZE)PRECIP SHIELD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTOTHE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREALATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT.MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH/TRACK OF THESYSTEM...RESULTING IN BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEMULTI-DAY TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER-MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION...WHICHWOULD DELAY PRECIP GETTING INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAYBUT ALSO RESULT IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADAMMING EVENT TO ENSUE ON FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE P-TYPE IMPLICATIONSAS WARM AIR CONVEYOR FEED ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE ANTECEDENT COLDARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL REQUIREMONITORING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OFTHE LOW PRESSURE AREA PIVOTAL IN DETERMINING P-TYPE ACROSS CENTRAL NCFRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CASE IN POINT...THE LATEST 12Z/21 EC HASSHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH...NOW TRACKING THE SURFACELOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH THEVIRGINIA/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. NOMOGRAM PLOTS BASED ON THE EC WOULDSUPPORT A WINTRY MIX OVER THE WEST OF THE TRIANGLE...WHILE THE GFSWOULD SUPPORT A COLD RAIN. WILL ADVERTISE A COLD RAIN FOR NOW(ALTHOUGHTHAT COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO)...WITH POPS INCREASINGFROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...MAXIMIZED BETWEEN TO03Z...AND EXITING EASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z SATURDAY.STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRALUS WILL USER IN ANOTHER CP AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGINNING TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERNUS TROUGH LIFTS OUT WITH S/W RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING EASTWARD OVERTHE REGION.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This whole storm threat is being driven by a northern stream wave. We would need that to dig south of the Carolinas for this to be anything more than a brief mix at the onset. With the PNA ridge breaking down color me unexcited about the prospects for that type of digging to.actually occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It;s important to remember the Euro ensembles at 0z Saturday a.m. painted a strip of 1-2 inches across northern NC. So it's not like the Euro operational has had some major hiccup. In fact it's go more consistent support from it's ensembles than the GFS IMO up to this point. For all the cold chasing rain never works argument crowd(myself primarly) we just had the cold chase the rain Thursday and win out for once for alot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro Weeklies came out. Via the EPS control run of it looks seasonal with shots of cold into the SE. First and last week of Feb. look good. In between those days it appears seasonal to mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It;s important to remember the Euro ensembles at 0z Saturday a.m. painted a strip of 1-2 inches across northern NC. So it's not like the Euro operational has had some major hiccup. In fact it's go more consistent support from it's ensembles than the GFS IMO up to this point. For all the cold chasing rain never works argument crowd(myself primarly) we just had the cold chase the rain Thursday and win out for once for alot of us. It was a bust for most outside the Triad and northern NC apps. Anyway I am still not on board for very much from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It was a bust for most outside the Triad and northern NC apps. Anyway I am still not on board for very much from this. it was also not a case of cold chasing moisture really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 it was also not a case of cold chasing moisture really. I'll give you that, since it was coming from top-down(dynamical cooling). I'm by no means a cold chasing precip fan. The difference we have with this possible setup is the cold air we 'll have been firmlly entrenched in NC. I'm more optimistic the NC CAD areas will see winter precip and I lean way more toward sleet/frzng rn as oppossed to all snow or all rain. Cold air is dense and sometimes fliys under the radar so to speak in model world because it's so shallow. I don't see this event as a wet one on this side of the apps and really would be suprised to get more than .25-.40. I'd be more concerned with getting dryslotted(carolina split) the way things stand now compared to just cold rain. Who knows the outcome, i'm just tossing out opinions into the mix of all the pros and cons while we chase. MO is the other models will come around to the euro/euro ensemble camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not much was said about the 18z GFS...but it did trend better from 12z. Do any of the members look good for us? One thing I did notice it 500 keeps ticking better. Just a hunch but I have a feeling the gfs will start trending south with the surface low tonight. It's showing up in the approach and pass of the ull energy. These comparisons show what I'm talking about (12z on left - 18z on right): 12-18zgfs5h.JPG 12-18z500.JPG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 One thing I did notice it 500 keeps ticking better. Just a hunch but I have a feeling the gfs will start trending south with the surface low tonight. It's showing up in the approach and pass of the ull energy. These comparisons show what I'm talking about (12z on left - 18z on right): 12-18zgfs5h.JPG 12-18z500.JPG Nice post man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Nice post man. Sorry having some quoting problems since the update. I was quoting someone from the mid-Atlantic region! 0z to make or break us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 There only 2 18z GEFS members that were Euro like, rest had fairly good agreement to the Op (with some close degree of variability). The GFS has been fairly good this winter, IMO.... Although when looking at the snowfall accum. maps it appears there are a couple more that give N-NC snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The ukie is lined up well with the euro ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The ukie is lined up well with the euro ensemble mean. Care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We need more ensemble members like this one in the coming 0z model runs. This is probably like an extreme 12z Euro "like" depiction, but shows the potential....................even if the chances are pretty low let's see if we continue the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 When's the NAM come out? Grasping for straws,but it picked up the last one pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 For what it's worth, Accuweather puts the end of the work week "storm" on a track that puts the east coast south of DC in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 For what it's worth, Accuweather puts the end of the work week "storm" on a track that puts the east coast south of DC in the rain. Just covering all the tracks. Frank acknowledges potential. Frank Strait Fan Club New vlog! http://t.co/GsOXMIeU Chance my "1 more #snow this year" forecast for @aaliyah_hailey works out by Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Care to elaborate?the euro ensemble mean has the surface low near Knoxville the ukie valid same time at 96 hours is close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A little confused...some here are saying clipper or cold front. I usually refer to clippers as dry cold snow. Fronts as wetter rain chasing snow etc. or wintry mix whatever the case may be. Accuweather is showing two pieces of energy that will merge, which is what I am seeing. So this is likely not a potential cold dry snow from a clipper am I right? I expect storms/moisture from the GOM...etc. I know some earlier were questioning the validity of getting winter precip coming from the north, which is why I ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well the NAM is further south than it's 18z counterpart. Let's hope this trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well the NAM is further south than it's 18z counterpart. Let's hope this trend continues Wasn't even a trend there...that was a jump 100 miles south at least. Will need some more of those trends from the NAM in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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