franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Almost all of VA is snow. Warning criteria in DC. And that helps the SE how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It seems that when we have a cold PDO and a warm AMO (like now) that the cold PDO is the dominant factor in determining weather in the US, particularly in the SE. When both are negative (like during the 60-70's), it is a more favorable pattern for the SE but the exact timing of the change from a warm to cold phase is very hard to predict as it tends to fluctuate. Cold PDO's give us more La Nina's than El Ninos while it is the reverse during a warm PDO. Conversely, a warm AMO tends to produce more +NAO and AO while a cold AMO produces a more -NAO/AO. pattern. Looking at that combination, it would seem that a cold PDO and warm AMO don't tend to be big cold/snowy winters for the SE (but remember they just increase the averages of it being true and is not a hard and fast rule). There are of course exceptions depending on other factors and we do not know for sure when the flip will occur, but it does seem likely for a cold AMO to appear sometime in the next 5-15 years and we should still be in a cold PDO for a good part of that periond which hopefully would lead to a greater chance of cold/snowy winters for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 For who? this run is further south and more consolidated, which was always a possibility. I don't know if it will dive as much as that, but its just cold enough thanks to the angle of the approach of that s/w and front, that there's enough warm advection, but not too much, so that northeast TN, much of north central, nw NC (probably north of I-40) will have snow with this front, not rain. IF this run is right, and the tend on that model is to inch southward I think or atleast have less warm advection ahead of the front. Similar to a clipper. VA is all snow. Some ice is possible since there is damming shown on Friday. Its a very fast mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think Euro verbatim for central NC would be light snow/ice flip to sleet/rain and light snow. Piedmont NW NC would be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Need some Euro analysis between Day 4 an 5. At Day 4, the 850 OC line runs NW to SE along the Ga./SC line -- almost all of NC is under -2 with the NE 2/3 of the state under -4 just as it looks like light precip is moving in. Must be REALLY light???? I guess it's possible it warms up quickly as preip starts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Need some Euro analysis between Day 4 an 5. At Day 4, the 850 OC line runs NW to SE along the Ga./SC line -- almost all of NC is under -2 with the NE 2/3 of the state under -4 just as it looks like light precip is moving in. Must be REALLY light???? I guess it's possible it warms up quickly as preip starts? HKY is about 0.3", probably all frozen (snow/sleet), per the 6 hour panels you touch 32F ST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 RDU is 0.46", probably front end snow, mix (rain/sleet) than flip back. I only have 6 hour panels so not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 HKY is about 0.3", probably all frozen (snow/sleet), per the 6 hour panels you touch 32F ST. I would assume the snow line is somewhere around HKY, probably mixed precip for the 85 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hour 105 EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Sounds like it's kind of similar to 6z GFS. HKY is about 0.3", probably all frozen (snow/sleet), per the 6 hour panels you touch 32F ST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 850's are consistently cold this run for almost all of NC. Hickory, for example, goes below zero at 850 by 0z tonight and doesnt recover above freezing until next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 And that helps the SE how? Well, it helps northern NC, especially I-40 corridor. Moreover, Virginians are in the Southeast, so it is relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 One has to wonder if this is a correction because the model is seeing denser cold air and if it is, does that mean an even further south correction is coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 One has to wonder if this is a correction because the model is seeing denser cold air and if it is, does that mean an even further south correction is coming? When / or has all that Noaa dropsonde data been ingested yet? Also does our govt share that info with euro weather offices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What is this showing? What's the scale? Hour 105 EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Forecast published January 20 apparently reflecting warm up between cold intrusions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 DT did mention that this clipper is most likely going to be an Alberta clipper. He showed a analog date that is similar to what models are projecting. Here is the date mentioned: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What is this showing? What's the scale? Just this frame...1-2 and 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hour 102 Hour 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 What is this showing? What's the scale? It's nothing really to write home about. I-40 north right now looks like it could eek out a few quick inches. I was on my phone looking and it appeared at 102 like it was going to be really good for NC even just as a clipper. Puts about .3 or .4 of QPF across most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's nothing really to write home about. I-40 north right now looks like it could eek out a few quick inches. I was on my phone looking and it appeared at 102 like it was going to be really good for NC even just as a clipper. Puts about .3 or .4 of QPF across most of NC. If you don't mind me asking, how does it look for the Norfolk area? Does it look like we would stay all frozen? Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's nothing really to write home about. I-40 north right now looks like it could eek out a few quick inches. I was on my phone looking and it appeared at 102 like it was going to be really good for NC even just as a clipper. Puts about .3 or .4 of QPF across most of NC. Burger man......... Eeking out a couple of inches this year........IS a big deal. Lol. Good luck NC peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Burger man......... Eeking out a couple of inches this year........IS a big deal. Lol. Good luck NC peeps. Just ask my last girlfriend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's nothing really to write home about. I-40 north right now looks like it could eek out a few quick inches. I was on my phone looking and it appeared at 102 like it was going to be really good for NC even just as a clipper. Puts about .3 or .4 of QPF across most of NC. Oh, come now, my good sir! In the midst of the snow drought of two years, a few quick inches of snow is definitely something to get excited over! I was excited for the snow falling from the sky this past Thursday evening, and it only amounted to 0.25 inch. A "few" inches of snow (2-3) would be 800-1200% better than that! So, I'm all on board for watching the trends, at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 If you don't mind me asking, how does it look for the Norfolk area? Does it look like we would stay all frozen? Thanks in advance! ORF is on the edge per the Euro Burger man......... Eeking out a couple of inches this year........IS a big deal. Lol. Good luck NC peeps. See my comment below Just ask my last girlfriend. Oh, come now, my good sir! In the midst of the snow drought of two years, a few quick inches of snow is definitely something to get excited over! I was excited for the snow falling from the sky this past Thursday evening, and it only amounted to 0.25 inch. A "few" inches of snow (2-3) would be 800-1200% better than that! So, I'm all on board for watching the trends, at this point... What I meant is that it's just one run with marginal temps for our back yards. I would be ecstatic with 2-3 inches of snow but you know how it is by tonight it might show nothing at all but a cool rain for all of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 IMO, again...just MO....Its really simple to see why the pattern has been crap for most of the winter. The Pacific continues to be a train wreck and will NOT allow for the a good solid dump of Arctic air. The MJO hasn't really helped with a Southern Stream, and the SOI (SO branch help) has been Positive as well. I just can't get excited for a pattern that can't start with the Pacific being better. Is it a guarantee Well obviously NO, and obviously it doesn't HAVE to be in a good spot for us to see something Wintry, but when you cut the US (or South of the Mason Dixon line) off from the Cold air, its NOT going to come south. Just my humble opinion and I hope it gets better. Honestly, this should just prove the fact that a NEG AO and NEG NAO doesn't mean its a given we see wintry wx down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro shows a strip of 3"(based on 10:1) from i-40 N in N Carolina** Not very far east though.... Euro even says NW SC and NE Georgia get some flakes. Overall... it still looks like the cold is chasing the moisture the entire time. Its tough to make these work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 IMO, again...just MO....Its really simple to see why the pattern has been crap for most of the winter. The Pacific continues to be a train wreck and will NOT allow for the a good solid dump of Arctic air. The MJO hasn't really helped with a Southern Stream, and the SOI (SO branch help) has been Positive as well. I just can't get excited for a pattern that can't start with the Pacific being better. Is it a guarantee Well obviously NO, and obviously it doesn't HAVE to be in a good spot for us to see something Wintry, but when you cut the US (or South of the Mason Dixon line) off from the Cold air, its NOT going to come south. Just my humble opinion and I hope it gets better. Honestly, this should just prove the fact that a NEG AO and NEG NAO doesn't mean its a given we see wintry wx down south. Absolutely - SE ridge or not, the PAC has been dominating us for the last two years. Unfortunately, I see nothing to change that fact anytime before January (or February) is done. This next pass-through looks like status quo south of I-40 (at best). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 For at least the Atlanta area, the ENSO phase with the highest frequency of major ZR's has been neutral negative (NN), where ENSO is currently, by a wide margin. The frequency of NN winters with a major ZR is ~42%. Compare this 42% to only 19% for all winters, combined, getting at least one major ZR. The 2nd highest frequency for any one ENSO phase is only ~25% (neutral positive and weak El Nino). Looking at major ZR's vs. major S/IP for KATL during NN, there have been about 11 major ZR's vs. only 4 major S/IP's. Keep in mind that there have actually been slightly more major S/IP's than major ZR's for all winters, combined: 35 vs. 29. Regarding the warm Dec. analogs for ATL, there were two major ZR's during the subsequent late January. These were both during NN ENSO fwiw. There were four major S/IP's though three of them were during El Nino. One was during neutral positive ENSO. None were during NN. The 10 day period with the most major ZR's at Atlanta for all winters has been 1/21-30. All of these stats tell me that a major ZR at Atlanta and in much of N GA between now and early Feb. wouldn't be a total surprise. Nevertheless, the current models aren't showing one though some runs have had something close. Therefore, I am not predicting one at this time. Until the models do show something, if ever, there's no reason to expect one and I'll assume the chances to be low. However, if they should at some point happen to move toward a major ZR scenario, I'd then start paying very close attention especially considering the above mentioned climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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