January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[packbacker]

It's hard to go against the Euro ENS mean, it to me looked very simliar to the 0z GFS, it had a nice winter event for the MA up through Boston.  I am not able to see the individual panels but I can see the precip and min/max temps for the big cities and it looks like DCA north would be mostly frozen event with DCA kind of being the cut off.

[beanskip]

Pretty close, really -- I wonder how one would convert those percentages of statistical accuracy into meterological impact. That is -- how many miles off on placement of weather features does each hundreth of a point equal?

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_model_verification.php

[DaculaWeather]

I think it might have as much to do with the bias of each model in a particular situation. The GFS might favor certain setups and systems while the Euro might favor others. Not only that but it vary vary during the life-cycle of a storm. Each has it's own strengths and weaknesses, knowing what those are and how to apply them makes understanding the models an art. 

[Cold Rain]

What I'm wondering about is all this phase 8-1-2 of the MJO stuff, which historically seem to be favorable for us, but when I look at the LR, it still looks seasonal with intermittent cold interspersed with warm-ups before systems that track west of us, which doesn't seem to be all that different that where we've been, minus the huge above normal temp anomalies.

Are the models just not reflecting the MJO forcing properly in the LR or is it just going to be impossible this year, given the Pacific, to see any meaningful periods of favorable storm tracks, aside from the occasional fail of a ULL? That's what I'm wondering.

[POWERSTROKE]

I'd be surprised to see the gfs score higher on verification over the euro the past two years. I know somebody reading this has access to the charts.

you may check with Robert he has done a comparison over the last two years between the gfs and euro

[franklin NCwx]

What I'm wondering about is all this phase 8-1-2 of the MJO stuff, which historically seem to be favorable for us, but when I look at the LR, it still looks seasonal with intermittent cold interspersed with warm-ups before systems that track west of us, which doesn't seem to be all that different that where we've been, minus the huge above normal temp anomalies.

Are the models just not reflecting the MJO forcing properly in the LR or is it just going to be impossible this year, given the Pacific, to see any meaningful periods of favorable storm tracks, aside from the occasional fail of a ULL? That's what I'm wondering.

We are currently in phase 7 and there is a little lag time. Are you looking at just op runs or the ensembles too?

[DaculaWeather]

My main concern is the lack of west based blocking at a low enough latitude. We can't get blocking at the right place at the right time to force cold air south,it wants to hang out north of us. Every time I look at a model run I see the cold sliding out to sea, never really south. We have to get some decent blocking or we're doomed for real cold here. 

[franklin NCwx]

My main concern is the lack of west based blocking at a low enough latitude. We can't get blocking at the right place at the right time to force cold air south,it wants to hang out north of us. Every time I look at a model run I see the cold sliding out to sea, never really south. We have to get some decent blocking or we're doomed for real cold here. 

The problem is we have always been fighting something this year. As of now the ensembles have the ao tanking the mjo going into phase 8 at a decent amplitude and hopefully we can get the west based nao too as the ensembles have hinted at, off and on.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Euro drops the elbow on us again next Saturday. We're going to get lucky if we can keep the cold shots coming.

 

 

The Euro has been very persistent for several days on doing this for next weekend...

 

[Southern Track]

Is phase 1 of the MJO where we get more of a split flow?

[Cold Rain]

We are currently in phase 7 and there is a little lag time. Are you looking at just op runs or the ensembles too?

Both. The ensembles generally look ok, but we can't get the storm track south of us and we can't Greenland blocking to set up. Maybe that will change shortly.

[ncwinterwxman]

I don't have a temperature anomaly map to show you but I think it does...overall the pattern supports major east coast snowstorms

Is phase 1 of the MJO where we get more of a split flow?

[Cold Rain]

My main concern is the lack of west based blocking at a low enough latitude. We can't get blocking at the right place at the right time to force cold air south,it wants to hang out north of us. Every time I look at a model run I see the cold sliding out to sea, never really south. We have to get some decent blocking or we're doomed for real cold here.

Yep, that's my concern too. Nothing so far to lock in the cold and force the storm track south. PNA has been too far east or west or not tall enough and no good, strong west -NAO.

[Shawn]

12z OP GFS still seems cold chasing moisture for most around 120hrs.

 

EDIT: Let me look at a couple other maps, there may be something here.

[Shawn]

[tnweathernut]

My main concern is the lack of west based blocking at a low enough latitude. We can't get blocking at the right place at the right time to force cold air south,it wants to hang out north of us. Every time I look at a model run I see the cold sliding out to sea, never really south. We have to get some decent blocking or we're doomed for real cold here. 

 

 

To this point, I certainly agree as the cold from 7-10 always seems to be colder than actual.  It will be interesting to see where everything lines up for the first two weeks of February.  It still looks really good to me for MUCH of the southeast.................. not just the upper midsouth, parts of northern NC, and points north.  You would think we will start seeing potential as we head through this next week or so (if the MJO continues to progress as forecast). 

 

I like the looks of the ensembles once past day 11. (where have we heard that before?).  There are many on board for a rocking two to three weeks of February and if we can get 2-3 storms to feed many this winter will be remembered as one that started off warm, but finished with a bang............ 

[DaculaWeather]

Here's another problem. The CFSv2 was announcing deep cold for February, now it's showing this:

 

 

[eyewall]

The 12z GFS says see you in February. Nothing to look forward to for now.

[Southern Track]

Here's another problem. The CFSv2 was announcing deep cold for February, now it's showing this:

One way of looking at these, These forecasts from Climate Prediction have been less than stellar all winter so far.

[beanskip]

Another way of looking at these -- when they show cold and stormy they are right, and when they show warm and dry they are wrong.

One way of looking at these, These forecasts from Climate Prediction have been less than stellar all winter so far.

[DaculaWeather]

One way of looking at these, These forecasts from Climate Prediction have been less than stellar all winter so far.

That is true. As a matter of fact, it seems that none of the normal tools, models, teleconnections, global wave patterns, SSW, etc, have been much of any help this winter.

[FoothillsNC]

That is true. As a matter of fact, it seems that none of the normal tools, models, teleconnections, global wave patterns, SSW, etc, have been much of any help this winter.

And this is exactly what I've been honing in on lately on my site. The indices have not been working out so far. There has been a lot of neg AO, and quite often some neg NAO, but the cold PDO pattern keeps dominating so far. We are just now getting to a decent western ridge, but already we see signs it will get beat down quickly, and all along I was wondering how long it could possibly stay.  The high latitude blocking and neg AO, neg NAO would almost always be good signs and would have worked its magic by now in the East, but the cold has gone to mostly Europe, Russia and Canada, and the western US ..only now with a good ridge has a big chunk worked into the Eastern US.

But the cold this time isn't even impressive at all in the Deep South. The 850 never gets much past Little Rock to Montgomery to Macon line, and has a strong gradient to it's north, so while TN and NC have a quick really cold snap, if you go south a few miles you're really out of the cold air quickly, and its only about normal.  All the models 7 to 10 days ago blew this, and as time got closer we saw the models ease up on this cold for the bulk of the Southeast, and it's on the move (since the western ridge will collapse starting tomorrow).  The cold PDO pattern keeps working against the cold getting into the Southeast more than a day  or so, even with this new pattern.

All the blocking that is going on (and I'm guilty of this too) is too far north, over northern Canada and northern Greenland, not in southern Canada and southern Greenland where we really need it if we're going to remain in a cold PDO pattern, atleast then the cold in Canada can get shunted more southward, not eastward.  So with all the pretty good indices so far , it hasn't panned out for many (good snow storm recently though in some areas under the upper low), but still no doubt January will go down as way above normal in temps over the entire Southeast third of the US, no matter how cold it turns the next few days.  So that will be a very warm Dec and Jan now, and the CFS has really been terrible on showing the cold weeklies.  They are most certainly a bust for the second half of January in the Southeast, only time will tell if they work out for February.  So far, I don't see any sustained cold coming, but it does look changeable, with a fast flow and sometimes an amped up flow, but without a Southern Greenland block (and those things are forecast pretty reliably far out--none in sight), then the faster flow will only bring sporadic shots of cold in the Southeast.  So we will probably have to rely on perfect timing.   GFS hints at split flow, so far I'm very doubtful of that yet because a closed ridge or Rex block in the Pacific hasnt' worked out yet, the jet is just too fast and neg PDO pattern argues otherwise.  Atleast it's not as bad as last Winter, already most folks have done better, and usually February is the best month, so I'm optimistic a good system or 2 will come along in the climo best period when westerlies are at their furthest south.  But as for getting cold air to come and stay? Nothing is showing that, but CFS (the JMA and Beijing have been terrible too so far, except when showing the warm December).  Seems for the Southeast, its hard to break the pattern of being really warm.  Same for most of the US really, except the recent cool down in the heartland and west.  Overall looking at the big picture, when the Northern Hemisphere is severely cold in some areas, that means severely warm anomalies are needed to counter balance nature. Thats how weather always works out.  So Russia, Europe and China having their third severe Winter in a row, and now we're well on our way to our second really warm one.  It just so happens the Southeast has the perfect alignment to be the warmest, while the rest of the NH has the perfect conditions for cold. The one hope I think we have is that patterns change around February usually, and we may sneak out a really good pattern at some point if just for a short time.  The MJO could still work its climo (but again, all the other usual indices haven't worked yet--not saying MJO phase 8, 1 or 2, will be odd though).  And leftover effects from the Strat Warming could still shake up the flow, but it's all complicated and connected, but in the end, the cold seems to keep swirling around northern China, Europe Russia and Canada and hardly making any good enroads to the Southeast US.  I've been seeing this on the longer range 5H maps for over a month now, but atleast we do have this current cooldown coming.  Comparing this Jan to last around here, its about the same, except the bees (honeybees at that) and yellow jackets are everywhere, lady bugs and the flowers are opening up.And after the big rains last week, fire ant swarms have grown tremendously in my yard and are popping up everywhere. None of this was around in the good cold Winters of 2009/10 and 10/11.  But having the warmest year on record 2012, and having gone about 2 years straight now with out any cold air , this definitely sets the stage for this.    Good thing the colder air is coming this week to put a slowdown on the trees. Another week of what we had last week and this would look like March soon.

I don't want to sound that down on the chances for good stuff later on. Feb can be good and so can early March, even in a bad pattern now. And the neg. AO study I did shows that at some point usually many areas in Southeast atleast northern parts of the SE will end up with above normal snow by season's end, even if its a warm Winter (which it most definitely will be , even if Feb is cold)

[Cold Rain]

And this is exactly what I've been honing in on lately on my site. The indices have not been working out so far. There has been a lot of neg AO, and quite often some neg NAO, but the cold PDO pattern keeps dominating so far. We are just now getting to a decent western ridge, but already we see signs it will get beat down quickly, and all along I was wondering how long it could possibly stay. The high latitude blocking and neg AO, neg NAO would almost always be good signs and would have worked its magic by now in the East, but the cold has gone to mostly Europe, Russia and Canada, and the western US ..only now with a good ridge has a big chunk worked into the Eastern US.

But the cold this time isn't even impressive at all in the Deep South. The 850 never gets much past Little Rock to Montgomery to Macon line, and has a strong gradient to it's north, so while TN and NC have a quick really cold snap, if you go south a few miles you're really out of the cold air quickly, and its only about normal. All the models 7 to 10 days ago blew this, and as time got closer we saw the models ease up on this cold for the bulk of the Southeast, and it's on the move (since the western ridge will collapse starting tomorrow). The cold PDO pattern keeps working against the cold getting into the Southeast more than a day or so, even with this new pattern.

All the blocking that is going on (and I'm guilty of this too) is too far north, over northern Canada and northern Greenland, not in southern Canada and southern Greenland where we really need it if we're going to remain in a cold PDO pattern, atleast then the cold in Canada can get shunted more southward, not eastward. So with all the pretty good indices so far , it hasn't panned out for many (good snow storm recently though in some areas under the upper low), but still no doubt January will go down as way above normal in temps over the entire Southeast third of the US, no matter how cold it turns the next few days. So that will be a very warm Dec and Jan now, and the CFS has really been terrible on showing the cold weeklies. They are most certainly a bust for the second half of January in the Southeast, only time will tell if they work out for February. So far, I don't see any sustained cold coming, but it does look changeable, with a fast flow and sometimes an amped up flow, but without a Southern Greenland block (and those things are forecast pretty reliably far out--none in sight), then the faster flow will only bring sporadic shots of cold in the Southeast. So we will probably have to rely on perfect timing. GFS hints at split flow, so far I'm very doubtful of that yet because a closed ridge or Rex block in the Pacific hasnt' worked out yet, the jet is just too fast and neg PDO pattern argues otherwise. Atleast it's not as bad as last Winter, already most folks have done better, and usually February is the best month, so I'm optimistic a good system or 2 will come along in the climo best period when westerlies are at their furthest south. But as for getting cold air to come and stay? Nothing is showing that, but CFS (the JMA and Beijing have been terrible too so far, except when showing the warm December). Seems for the Southeast, its hard to break the pattern of being really warm. Same for most of the US really, except the recent cool down in the heartland and west. Overall looking at the big picture, when the Northern Hemisphere is severely cold in some areas, that means severely warm anomalies are needed to counter balance nature. Thats how weather always works out. So Russia, Europe and China having their third severe Winter in a row, and now we're well on our way to our second really warm one. It just so happens the Southeast has the perfect alignment to be the warmest, while the rest of the NH has the perfect conditions for cold. The one hope I think we have is that patterns change around February usually, and we may sneak out a really good pattern at some point if just for a short time. The MJO could still work its climo (but again, all the other usual indices haven't worked yet--not saying MJO phase 8, 1 or 2, will be odd though). And leftover effects from the Strat Warming could still shake up the flow, but it's all complicated and connected, but in the end, the cold seems to keep swirling around northern China, Europe Russia and Canada and hardly making any good enroads to the Southeast US. I've been seeing this on the longer range 5H maps for over a month now, but atleast we do have this current cooldown coming. Comparing this Jan to last around here, its about the same, except the bees (honeybees at that) and yellow jackets are everywhere, lady bugs and the flowers are opening up.And after the big rains last week, fire ant swarms have grown tremendously in my yard and are popping up everywhere. None of this was around in the good cold Winters of 2009/10 and 10/11. But having the warmest year on record 2012, and having gone about 2 years straight now with out any cold air , this definitely sets the stage for this. Good thing the colder air is coming this week to put a slowdown on the trees. Another week of what we had last week and this would look like March soon.

I don't want to sound that down on the chances for good stuff later on. Feb can be good and so can early March, even in a bad pattern now. And the neg. AO study I did shows that at some point usually many areas in Southeast atleast northern parts of the SE will end up with above normal snow by season's end, even if its a warm Winter (which it most definitely will be , even if Feb is cold)

What you're saying (and many others agree) is that the -PDO is the main driver and has effectively muted all of the other indexes when they would have otherwise been somewhat favorable for colder weather.

If that is the case, we're going to be stuck with a -PDO for many more years. So is this likely to be the pattern more likely than not for the next 20 winters then?

[FoothillsNC]

What you're saying (and many others agree) is that the -PDO is the main driver and has effectively muted all of the other indexes when they would have otherwise been somewhat favorable for colder weather.

If that is the case, we're going to be stuck with a -PDO for many more years. So is this likely to be the pattern more likely than not for the next 20 winters then?

not neccesarily, b/c the PDO has big spikes and its hard to tell when it's changed.  The 50-70's were great in part of the Southeast cold and snow wise (big neg PDO pattern)  so there's other factors going on. For whatever reason, the cold so far has slid over to the bigger continents, not ours.  It's not over yet though, patterns can change later on, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Europe/Russia /China have a big change and warm up in February. Maybe when that happens, our luck will change.

[Cold Rain]

not neccesarily, b/c the PDO has big spikes and its hard to tell when it's changed.  The 50-70's were great in part of the Southeast cold and snow wise (big neg PDO pattern)  so there's other factors going on. For whatever reason, the cold so far has slid over to the bigger continents, not ours.  It's not over yet though, patterns can change later on, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Europe/Russia /China have a big change and warm up in February. Maybe when that happens, our luck will change.

Thanks Robert. It really goes to show how very little we know about what drives overall weather patterns. We can look at indexes and how they historically affect the pattern and how they might work in concert with one another, but even then (and this year is a good example) the very best forcasters are left scratching their heads as to why things turn out the way they do. It's clear that something else (maybe yet undiscovered) is going on that is more of a factor that the things we know about, or that there are so many variations of the known variables and how they set up and align with one another that it makes it next to impossible to figure out how things will play out.

In some ways, this offers hope when all of the warm winter forecasts start to appear. Anyway, thanks for your thoughts and comments.

[burgertime]

Euro is almost a big hit at 102

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[tnweathernut]

Euro is almost a big hit at 102

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For who?

[DixieBlizzard]

Another way of looking at these -- when they show cold and stormy they are right, and when they show warm and dry they are wrong.

 

I don't agree. They have been generally wrong in the LR no matter what they have shown. This same model has been screaming cold February for a couple of weeks and now the flip. Which will be right? Time will tell.

[burgertime]

Euro verbatim is two to three inches I40 north

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[WilkesboroDude]

Almost all of VA is snow. Warning criteria in DC.