LithiaWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Not much to be thrilled about right now IMO. Looks like a warm up as each system moves in followed by a seasonal cool down afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Pretty cool interactive 8-14 day outlook from NWS. You can type in your zip code and the map will zoom in to your area with the options for temp or precip outlooks. It also provides normal max temp and precip totals for your location. Pretty cool! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/interactive/index.php Generally speaking, the precip forecast looks good for the SE and the temp forecast is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z DGEX says Fire up the Bus and get the clown maps out: Nice hit NC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06138.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z DGEX says Fire up the Bus and get the clown maps out: Nice hit NC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06138.gif Looks like rain-to-accumulating snow here, though I have some doubts about a low tracking from GSP to Wilson, NC producing anything here. That's a strong low pressure, too. And it's the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z DGEX says Fire up the Bus and get the clown maps out: Nice hit NC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06138.gif hopefully other models can trend to this. now THIS is not a frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 As I thought the 0z gfs says the dgex is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 As I thought the 0z gfs says the dgex is on crack. As always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 As I thought the 0z gfs says the dgex is on crack. This is going to be a nice event for either the MA or NE, will be interesting to see what verifies. It looks like after this event we eventually moderate, but with the MJO heading to phase 1 we should hopefully get another chance in early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This is going to be a nice event for either the MA or NE, will be interesting to see what verifies. It looks like after this event we eventually moderate, but with the MJO heading to phase 1 we should hopefully get another chance in early Feb. I agree pack...Like you I think our best chances come in early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS is very active with s/w energy in the LR...one shot after another for the east coast...it's just a matter of time before the GFS or Euro sees a real threat (for the SE) and we can start tracking another one. The models will be all over the place in the next week or two. The most important factor I think is that +PNA finally working out to begin February...which has been a main discussion point for some as to why even if we have a -NAO/-AO, it just doesn't work out without the pacific in on it. With the MJO transitioning to phase 8/1 within this period...something has got to give. I know most have seen this movie before but I'm pretty optimistic for the rest of the winter moving forward. No heat waves in sight, plenty of energy, time to make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS is very active with s/w energy in the LR...one shot after another for the east coast...it's just a matter of time before the GFS or Euro sees a real threat (for the SE) and we can start tracking another one. The models will be all over the place in the next week or two. The most important factor I think is that +PNA finally working out to begin February...which has been a main discussion point for some as to why even if we have a -NAO/-AO, it just doesn't work out without the pacific in on it. With the MJO transitioning to phase 8/1 within this period...something has got to give. I know most have seen this movie before but I'm pretty optimistic for the rest of the winter moving forward. No heat waves in sight, plenty of energy, time to make it happen. Agree, the split flow and active STJ was nice to see on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Anything on the cmc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWXnc Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Anything on the cmc? Appeared to be just a frontal passage, with the low tracking through Ohio, western PA, and northeast from there. It did seem to indicate front-end snows around the northern third of VA, but that quickly changed to rain as the low brought in warmer air. I only checked through hr 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I agree pack...Like you I think our best chances come in early February. If we can actually pull a split flow in early Feb, I like it too. Even with the sort of hit, and slide by cold, we seem to be getting, an active southern branch can make for multiple fun....if things get "just" right, lol. I sure would like to see the Goofy 0 line find the gulf coast on consecutive model runs. It has on the occasional run, then the next has a hit and miss, with the 0 line not even finding Macon. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro drops the elbow on us again next Saturday. We're going to get lucky if we can keep the cold shots coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Aimee Wilmouth (WRAL) hinting at a chance for wintry precip Friday night per model guidance. Could be a good sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 6z gfs posted below. Euro Ensemble look close for NC as well. I can only view in 24 hr increments. Has Icy look. Can't get the Euro op on allan site, frames are old ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 http://www.daculawea...ended_disco.php I'm liking the sound of this more and more...a few excerpts: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD407 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013VALID 12Z THU JAN 24 2013 - 12Z MON JAN 28 2013 GIVEN THE COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THISSYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE ICE/SNOW AMOUNTS ALONGAND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ...UPDATE...ALL PARAMETERS FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT A 00ZUKMET/00Z GEFS MEAN COMPROMISE...WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER AND SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THESOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Aimee Wilmouth (WRAL) hinting at a chance for wintry precip Friday night per model guidance. Could be a good sign! On the EPS control run it was just cold chasing rain. For some winter weather in the near term folks need to root for a trend towards the 6z though that solution would probably be pretty light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 6z GFS soundings for Shelby actually show some light sleet or Fzra at hours 114 to 117 -- only about .15 of precip, but wouldn't take much for that to trend into something worth following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Aimee Wilmouth (WRAL) hinting at a chance for wintry precip Friday night per model guidance. Could be a good sign! On the EPS control run it was just cold chasing rain. For some winter weather in the near term folks need to root for a trend towards the 6z though that solution would probably be pretty light. Usually the local media saying something this far out is the kiss of death. And it would be just our luck that it would be the case of cold chasing rain when it's going to be so cold for the middle of this week, then warm up Friday just in time for the rain to come and then get cold again for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro drops the elbow on us again next Saturday. We're going to get lucky if we can keep the cold shots coming. You would think so. I hope we just don't get in the repeating pattern of cold and dry, warms up a bit and rains, and then gets cold and dry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 On the EPS control run it was just cold chasing rain. For some winter weather in the near term folks need to root for a trend towards the 6z though that solution would probably be pretty light. 6Z is intereting. Not sure any of the models have the right picture at this point. 12Z may shine some light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The 6z GEFS is interesting, it has 6 members where snow reaches the northern part of NC and maybe 8-9 of them that hit the NC mountains. It's so different from the Euro. Day 5 should be Euro's wheelhouse so I would lean towards that but the Euro sucked at this range last week and the GFS led the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The 6z GEFS is interesting, it has 6 members where snow reaches the northern part of NC and maybe 8-9 of them that hit the NC mountains. It's so different from the Euro. Day 5 should be Euro's wheelhouse so I would lean towards that but the Euro sucked at this range last week and the GFS led the way. Euro has not been that great for about 2 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro has not been that great for about 2 years now. I'd be surprised to see the gfs score higher on verification over the euro the past two years. I know somebody reading this has access to the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_model_verification.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'd be surprised to see the gfs score higher on verification over the euro the past two years. I know somebody reading this has access to the charts. I'm not disputing that it's still not the highest scoring model in the northern hemisphere. My point is that ever since they made that upgrade a few years ago it is not as reliable as it once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It seems the models are in flux with this system. Here is GSP's overnight long term: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES WITH IT/S PREVIOUSRUN OF A BROADER YET DEEPER UPPER TROF THAN THE 00Z GFS. THE ECWMFIS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z CMC AND THE GEFS MEAN MSLP. THUS...THEFCST WILL BE WEIGHTED MORESO WITH THE ECMWF IN MIND AND BLENDED WITHTHE HPC ECMWF ENS FAVORED GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH THEPERIOD.STRONG DEEP LAYERED Q/G FORCING WILL COMMENCE WEST OF THE APPS THUMORNING WHILE A WARM FRONT WORKS NORTH INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELTHETA/E ADV ALIGNED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAINSLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WEST SPREADING EAST INTO THE NCFOOTHILLS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EARLY MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL SUPPORT-SN...THEN CHANGING OVER TO -RA ACROSS MOST OF THE MTNS EXCEPTPERHAPS THE FAR NRN MTNS. A DEVELOPING SFC CYCLONE ACROSS THE SRNOH VALLEY WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA RATHER QUICKLY ASTHE UPPER WAVE REMAINS OPEN...THUS WILL ANTICIPATE A FROPA ACROSSMOST AREAS BY 00Z SAT. THE UPPER FORCING WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD ANDTHERE MAY BE ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPSALL ZONES THROUGH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF AXIS. EARLIER RUNS OF THEECMWF WERE RATHER DRY IN THE H92-H85 LAYER AFFECTING THE WRN NC MTNSFRI NIGHT...BUT THE NEW RUN IS MOIST AND AGREES WELL WITH THECONSISTENT GFS MASS FIELDS. SO...SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED WRAP AROUNDMTN -SNSH WILL SHOULD DEVELOP AFT 00Z SAT AND LINGER THROUGH MIDMORNING. SUN WILL BE A DRY DAY AS A 1032 MB ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVERTHE CAROLINAS.HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THU AND FRI WITH THE S/LY FLOWAHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT A PRETTY GOOD MIX OF ARCTIC AIR WILLHOLD MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT AND SUN.MINS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT...AROUND NORMALFRI NIGHT AND ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAT NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_model_verification.php thank you sir! You have a awesome site just keeps getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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