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January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Interesting because someone is forecasting by looking at the pattern and not from a model. May be right, may be wrong, but a great read. FWIW, the 0z Canadian seems to drag the front through the GOM @ 132, and that in and of itself, can create mischief. Long ways out yet. From HPC this AM....

RECAST SOLUTION SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY DO LOOM

LARGE...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE COMPLICATED SURFACE SYSTEM

DEVELOPMENT/SUPRESSION POSSIBILITIES AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL

MASS FIELD RESPONSE. HPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRIED TO

MAINTAIN MUCH CONTINUITY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN EVOLUTION

EVEN WITH GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPS. A COMPOSITE BLEND OF MODELS AND

ENSEMBLES HERE FITS THAT BILL WITH OUR OVERNIGHT HPC FORECAST

PACKAGE...AS SUCH SHYING AWAY FROM THE DETAILS/TRENDS OF

INDIVIDUAL MODEL WHIMS THAT EBB AND FLOW. EXPECTED WAVY FRONTAL

PASSAGE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT COULD RESULT IN COASTAL

REDEVELOPMENT CONSIDERING DYNAMIC SUPPORT POTENTIAL ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES OFF COURSE WILL REVERT COLDER IN THE WAKE OF LOW AND

COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSAGE UNDER THE AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL

TROUGH.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Canadian blows a 998 low off the coast but it's way too warm. Not feeling it for MBY but if I were in RDU I would start getting interested in this fast. If you had the CMC solution with that low and Euro temps there would be a lot of happy folks in eastern and northern central NC.  That being said check out the Euro, GFS and CMC at 5h all valid at 00z....spin the wheel.

CMC @144

 

JmXeSb8l.gif

 

Euro @144

 

CxSnceF.png

 

 

GFS @144

 

MvsyQdF.png

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

And

 

 

DESPITE MODERATION FROM ARCTICVALUES...TEMPS REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED WINTERWEATHER SWATH ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATIONSHIELD AS DEPICTED IN OUR HPC MIN/MAX TEMPS AND CLOUD PHYSICALLYBASED WEATHER TYPE 5KM GRIDS ON AWIPS AND OUR WEBSITE.

 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH long range from last night (they are in wait mode):

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY...

THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
MIDWEEK... WHILE A QUICK MOVING S/W MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MERGES WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO/THROUGH OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MODELS
DIFFERENCE WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND
POSSIBLE DEVELOPING WEDGE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY... WITH THE GFS SHOWING A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK ACROSS
OUR AREA. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLY SOME TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER MAY EXIST ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.... ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS
VERIFIES. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP IN THE LIQUID CATEGORY
GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR POPS WILL GO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST (WHICH COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IF A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE
GFS WERE TO VERIFY... POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP AT ONSET ACROSS
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING). THE MAIN TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES. THUS... WILL
RAISE POPS TO SOLID CHANCE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT PRECIP TO END
IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM MIDNIGHT TO
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA... WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE THE PRECIP END AS SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL LIQUID THOUGH. COLDER AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RUN BELOW
NORMAL (WITH POSSIBLY A QUICK SHOT OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ON FRIDAY... WITH LOW TEMPS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

 

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION ...LINES 23/24NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1106 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013VALID 12Z WED JAN 23 2013 - 12Z SUN JAN 27 2013FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MANY ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THEARCTIC BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTWARDACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND PIEDMONT. FROM P-TYPE AND MAX TEMPS TOUNSEASONABLY LOW MIN TEMPS IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND MODEL QPF OUTPUTALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST... THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION/SPREADREMAINS LARGE.
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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted

GFS run is crap and shows the model is not sure what the available energy will do. As said above it is nothing more than a FROPA with frozen puddles afterwards on the 12z run.

But at least there is arctic air invading the eastern half of the country this week that will be in place by the time the next system comes in. Right ?

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

But at least there is arctic air invading the eastern half of the country this week that will be in place by the time the next system comes in. Right ?

 

Well yeah if we can get a full blown gulf system we would be in business but that isn't showing up right now.

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MichaelJ

MichaelJ

Posted
Posted

With the Arctic air sinking that far south, I think it unlikely the southern jet will be able to eastablish itself anywhere near us. The resultant forecast would be the oft hated and mentioned Cold and Dry. The last part of February and for March will likely turn warm and effectively end winter here in the South IMO.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

With the Arctic air sinking that far south, I think it unlikely the southern jet will be able to eastablish itself anywhere near us. The resultant forecast would be the oft hated and mentioned Cold and Dry. The last part of February and for March will likely turn warm and effectively end winter here in the South IMO.

 

I agree. Could we get lucky with the departure of the cold/dry to warm phase to produce something in the middle? Possibly...something to watch IMO. 

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

I don't think for a minute that we're not in for a great roller coaster ride for a while

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/page-16#entry2021632

 

I agree with comparison to last year. Signals are there and overall vast improvement compared to the heat we experienced last winter.

 

However, I will not go over and beyond tho with "wow" or "historic". I will leave that to the red taggers to chew on. Seems to bust when we start throwing around those ideas with high confidence. 

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ncwinterwxman

ncwinterwxman

Posted
Posted

***MJO UPDATE*** 

 

The GFS Operational, GEFS, ECMWF all agree that the MJO WILL indeed head into Phases 8/1 by early February.  This is a very good sign and a good set of guidance to have on your side at this time...again, as has been said over and over again, don't bother looking at the guidance beyond 4 or 5 days (much less 2 or 3 days IMHO) right now as the pattern is doing a lot of shuffling around right now. 

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

Cold Forecast for NC High Country Tuesday with highs in the single digits:

..THE FORECAST FOR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN NC AT 5946 FT...

.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO

30 MPH...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH...INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 MPH IN THE

AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

WEST WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 85 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN

THE LOWER TEENS BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE

DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WEST WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH...DECREASING TO 30 TO

35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 82 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN

THE UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

***MJO UPDATE*** 

 

The GFS Operational, GEFS, ECMWF all agree that the MJO WILL indeed head into Phases 8/1 by early February.  This is a very good sign and a good set of guidance to have on your side at this time...again, as has been said over and over again, don't bother looking at the guidance beyond 4 or 5 days (much less 2 or 3 days IMHO) right now as the pattern is doing a lot of shuffling around right now. 

And moderately strong at that http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

***MJO UPDATE***

The GFS Operational, GEFS, ECMWF all agree that the MJO WILL indeed head into Phases 8/1 by early February. This is a very good sign and a good set of guidance to have on your side at this time...again, as has been said over and over again, don't bother looking at the guidance beyond 4 or 5 days (much less 2 or 3 days IMHO) right now as the pattern is doing a lot of shuffling around right now.

ao is tanking too.
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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Great disco and thanks Dacula for putting that link up above. It's very interesting to me atleast to not have a clue whats gonna shake down from day 3 onward due to the possible volitility of the pattrn changing/reshuffling. Kinda of like the old days pre-internet where you where at the mercy of media and nws weather reports that hardly venturedout more than 3 days.

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

Great disco and thanks Dacula for putting that link up above. It's very interesting to me atleast to not have a clue whats gonna shake down from day 3 onward due to the possible volitility of the pattrn changing/reshuffling. Kinda of like the old days pre-internet where you where at the mercy of media and nws weather reports that hardly venturedout more than 3 days.

I often think back to how nice it was in those days. Things were much more surprising.

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