January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[tarheelwx]

EURO snowfall lurking nearby...nothing a few trends can't fix for some.

Would have to think there would be some ice at some point just south of there!

TW

[calculus1]

EURO snowfall lurking nearby...nothing a few trends can't fix for some.

 

 

Please provide some context.  What model hour is that?

[WilkesboroDude]

Please provide some context.  What model hour is that?

 

Hour 150

[calculus1]

I am glad that helped someone.  Thanks for saying so...

 

You're welcome.  It was a very useful graphic.

 

Hour 150

 

Thank you.

[MichaelJ]

With the tendency for storms to creep North and West with later runs, I would not think that depiction of the Euro at 150 would give us much hope in NC. The best case scenario at this time (and I use the word best loosely) would be a CAD event for some of the favored areas (and I personally don't care for those) but it is winter weather and something to talk about

[FallsLake]

With the tendency for storms to creep North and West with later runs, I would not think that depiction of the Euro at 150 would give us much hope in NC. The best case scenario at this time (and I use the word best loosely) would be a CAD event for some of the favored areas (and I personally don't care for those) but it is winter weather and something to talk about

We've had trends south with the models as well. As stated before long range models can have a hard time depicting a CAD / Miller B setup. In many cases with Miller B storms the intial look of the models was no storm or lake cutters. Not saying this will work out for us, I just think we have a better chance than most here think.

[Carvers Gap]

Discussion from Morristown, TN....Interesting to see them discuss freezing rain potential, because it is very rare here in E TN.  Good disco though.  Also, CPC released their new outlook maps for one month and three month leads...Not bad for us in the SE.

 

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING MUCH COLDER
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER AND
IN THE PAST COUPLE YEARS. NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE
WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND NOT QUITE AS LOW IN THE VALLEYS. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS MOST PLACES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS WITH LEFT OVER SNOW COVER STILL ON THE
GROUND IN SW VA MAY BE EVEN DROP TO NEAR ZERO. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THE BREAK IN THE COLD
PATTERN WILL BE BRIEF AS NEW SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER COLD AIR TRAPPED ACROSS NE
SECTIONS MAY ALLOW SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS DROP
RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AS NEW MODEL INFORMATION COMES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION
TYPES.
 

[tnweathernut]

That's an interesting discussion from the normally conservative MRX for parts of TN. I wonder if they have the feeling of a little egg on their face from this past storm, as the heavy rates alone were probably enough to issue something OTHER than a winter weather advisory. I have never really seen them talk about frozen from such a marginal situation from so far off. Predicting precipitation from a pressing arctic boundry is tough though, so maybe they are just trying to stay ahead of this next one (not that anyone, other than us wx geeks reads them anyway)...............

Carver, I hope you and the baby + mom are doing well Carver. Congrats on your 4th child. You are a brave man for rolling with 4

 

Discussion from Morristown, TN....Interesting to see them discuss freezing rain potential, because it is very rare here in E TN.  Good disco though.  Also, CPC released their new outlook maps for one month and three month leads...Not bad for us in the SE.

 

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING MUCH COLDER
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER AND
IN THE PAST COUPLE YEARS. NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE
WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND NOT QUITE AS LOW IN THE VALLEYS. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS MOST PLACES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS WITH LEFT OVER SNOW COVER STILL ON THE
GROUND IN SW VA MAY BE EVEN DROP TO NEAR ZERO. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THE BREAK IN THE COLD
PATTERN WILL BE BRIEF AS NEW SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER COLD AIR TRAPPED ACROSS NE
SECTIONS MAY ALLOW SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS DROP
RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES IN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AS NEW MODEL INFORMATION COMES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION
TYPES.
 

[Blue Ridge]

Discussion from Morristown, TN....Interesting to see them discuss freezing rain potential, because it is very rare here in E TN.  Good disco though.  Also, CPC released their new outlook maps for one month and three month leads...Not bad for us in the SE.

Interesting, indeed. The last notable ice event in the Tri-Cities dates back to December 2010, and primarily affected Johnson City. Prior to that, we travel back to the early 2000s. IIRC, that event was somewhat crippling for both Kingsport and Bristol. So, yes, freezing rain of any significance is rare in NE Tennessee.

[tnweathernut]

Interesting, indeed. The last notable ice event in the Tri-Cities dates back to December 2010, and primarily affected Johnson City. Prior to that, we travel back to the early 2000s. IIRC, that event was somewhat crippling for both Kingsport and Bristol. So, yes, freezing rain of any significance is rare in NE Tennessee.

I would hate to get the ice. I found it interesting they talked about a switchover to snow on the backside........

[Carvers Gap]

That's an interesting discussion from the normally conservative MRX for parts of TN. I wonder if they have the feeling of a little egg on their face from this past storm, as the heavy rates alone were probably enough to issue something OTHER than a winter weather advisory. I have never really seen them talk about frozen from such a marginal situation from so far off. Predicting precipitation from a pressing arctic boundry is tough though, so maybe they are just trying to stay ahead of this next one (not that anyone, other than us wx geeks reads them anyway)...............

Carver, I hope you and the baby + mom are doing well Carver. Congrats on your 4th child. You are a brave man for rolling with 4

100 percent agree about the egg on face and covering their base. However, to their credit they were great in answering my questions on Facebook beforehand. They almost always respond if I have a question which is pretty cool. Seems like the short range model wobbles before the event gave them some questions. As for upcoming ice, as we all know, models tend to move arctic air out too quickly. The recipe for ice in the valley is usually old arctic air being stubborn to retreat. If the models are correct in quickly scouring out cold air, then we are good. If they are wrong, some potential would exist. Where that boundary sets up shop will tell the story. As four number four, thanks! She is doing great. Her coming home in a snowstorm is pretty cool for me! Just getting the next generation of weather hobbiests ready right off the bat.

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting, indeed. The last notable ice event in the Tri-Cities dates back to December 2010, and primarily affected Johnson City. Prior to that, we travel back to the early 2000s. IIRC, that event was somewhat crippling for both Kingsport and Bristol. So, yes, freezing rain of any significance is rare in NE Tennessee.

The set-up requires so many variables to be in place. I remember one while teaching in Knoxville in the mid 90s. We were at school until 8:00. Folks were caught by surprise. Euro looked like it wanted to show it though. We'll see what future runs hold.

[Met1985]

I would hate to get the ice. I found it interesting they talked about a switchover to snow on the backside........

Ya the 18z showed this very well. With ice in Eastern TN and WNC then when the front comes through a switch to snow and a good cold shot also. Would be very bad roas conditions since the ground will be much colder than recently. Ice to some rain to snow and very cold temps. Still about a week away though.

[audioguy3107]

For the north Georgia crowd, FFC has a really nice writeup on the rain and "winter" event of this past week.  Kudos to them for their detailed summary of what happened and what went wrong around here resulting in little or no snow.  I hope they continue this type of writeup this year. Good to see.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=rainsnow011813

[WXeastern]

The last notable ice event in the Tri-Cities dates back to December 2010, and primarily affected Johnson City. 

Not to be a jerk or anything but I see alot of misinformation going on on this site in regards to east TN. The Ice storm that you are referring to affected several different places in east TN. It wasnt just a "primarily Johnson City" ice storm. It was pretty widespread across east TN. In fact.. I measured .40 inches of ice in Cocke county TN.

 

Here is a article talking about the ice in several different counties including Knox

http://www.wate.com/Global/story.asp?S=13684148

[Blue Ridge]

Not to be a jerk or anything but I see alot of misinformation going on on this site in regards to east TN. The Ice storm that you are referring to affected several different places in east TN. It wasnt just a "primarily Johnson City" ice storm. It was pretty widespread across east TN. In fact.. I measured .40 inches of ice in Cocke county TN.

 

Here is a article talking about the ice in several different counties including Knox

http://www.wate.com/Global/story.asp?S=13684148

Thank you for the additional information. There is certainly a disconnect on this board between Northeast Tennessee and "the rest of East Tennessee" simply because our members are concentrated in the Tri-Cities, Knoxville, and Chattanooga. Those who bridge the gap are few and far between, it seems. We active East Tennesseean members have pushed for years to increase active membership in the area.

 

My comments were geared toward the immediate Tri-Cities area, as "The last notable ice event in the Tri-Cities..." However, there is also a disconnect between my memory and fact. I do recall this occurred during finals week, which may explain the memory lapse.

 

Here is an article referencing Sullivan County as hardest-hit: http://abcnewsradioonline.com/tricities/ice-storm-in-kingsport-knocks-out-power.html

 

ANYWAY...

[1234snow]

Thank you for the additional information. There is certainly a disconnect on this board between Northeast Tennessee and "the rest of East Tennessee" simply because our members are concentrated in the Tri-Cities, Knoxville, and Chattanooga. Those who bridge the gap are few and far between, it seems. We active East Tennesseean members have pushed for years to increase active membership in the area.

 

My comments were geared toward the immediate Tri-Cities area, as "The last notable ice event in the Tri-Cities..." However, there is also a disconnect between my memory and fact. I do recall this occurred during finals week, which may explain the memory lapse.

 

Here is an article referencing Sullivan County as hardest-hit: http://abcnewsradioonline.com/tricities/ice-storm-in-kingsport-knocks-out-power.html

 

ANYWAY...

 

If I recall correctly that icestorm could have been alot worse if it didn't switch over to complete rain towards the end. I was lucky not to lose power. Anyway if this shortwave dug a little bit further south we would be talking about snow instead of ice.

[mackerel_sky]

0z GFS thoughts?

[MotoWeatherman]

For the north Georgia crowd, FFC has a really nice writeup on the rain and "winter" event of this past week.  Kudos to them for their detailed summary of what happened and what went wrong around here resulting in little or no snow.  I hope they continue this type of writeup this year. Good to see.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=rainsnow011813

One thing wrong with their discussion is that the models never showed support of snow in most places across north ga. They were banking on dynamics to do the trick which just didn't pan out for us. Even the fantasy snow maps show the snow mostly skipping ga.

[Marion_NC_WX]

0z GFS thoughts?

 

 

Just now up and rolling...still looking coldest air of the season for the I-40 cooridor Tuesday and Wednesday. Begins to moderate a little on Thursday. We shall see what happens after that point.

[wh_adkins01]

shifted further south, looks colder than previous runs, better posistion of coastal per 0z. Will be different by 6z...Worth watching

[Marion_NC_WX]

Yep...1012 mb low over Spartanburg at 138.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Storm and precip slides east of the Apps after 144 and another potent cold shot afterwards...however this run not as strong with the low off the Northeast coast.

 

Looks like the Tennessee Valley and SoApps will have another 1-2 inch rainfall coming up.

 

 

EDIT: Actually we do get a pretty good storm off shore in the 970's...however its pretty far off shore and the cold air Day 7 grazes the Upper Southeast instead of diving due south

[Jon]

0z GFS, as the system exits, there is enough cold air to drop 0.5-1" in central NC and 2" in far NE NC on the back side of the storm...

[dsaur]

For the north Georgia crowd, FFC has a really nice writeup on the rain and "winter" event of this past week.  Kudos to them for their detailed summary of what happened and what went wrong around here resulting in little or no snow.  I hope they continue this type of writeup this year. Good to see.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=rainsnow011813

Wow, nice find.  I'm glad they are doing that, if they keep it up.  Some great rain across the north.  For those who said they had enough, remember you could be where we are down here, lol.  Don't knock what other would love to have.

  And once again the 0 line can't find Florida.  That's bad news when goofy can't find Florida.  More sideswipe maybe chances, instead of a nice deep blanket of slowly decaying cold for some system to come into.  T

[WilkesboroDude]

Significant trend southward on the snowfall hour 156 on the GFS...went from north-central Ohio to central Virginia FWIW at this point in time.

[JWXnc]

0z GFS, as the system exits, there is enough cold air to drop 0.5-1" in central NC and 2" in far NE NC on the back side of the storm...

 

Should be fun to see how things evolve/waffle this week. After reading Jon's post, I checked bufkit: 0z GFS bufkit seems to spit out around 2.1 inches of snow and about .21 sleet for RDU as temps crash.  Wasn't expecting to see that based on what I saw earlier, but shows how close of a setup it could be and how interesting it'll be to track this week.

[tarheelwx]

Question is whether there would be ice south of there

Tw

[WilkesboroDude]

Not seeing a whole lot of freezing rain output just yet but maybe increasing...GFS below.

 

hour 150

 

hour 156

 

Also, FWIW...some type of snow shadow showing up for the foothills.

 

hour 150

 

hour 153

[Jon]

FWIW 0z Euro very close to something big...1004mb on Wilmington, NC at 144hrs, then storm goes OTS. Contrast with the 12z euro which had a weak 1012mb low off coast of NC no dice. Last 00z run was a lake cutter and then rain up and down the east coast...the trend appears to be there, given the latest GFS and Euro. BUT, I haven't yet seen anything modeled that could possibly turn this thing into a nor'easter...an OTS solution wouldn't really get anyone in the running no matter how this trends.