ncwinterwxman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yeah...it's MAGIC...it's called a low that redevelops off the east coast...haha...please stop...thanks oh so we are discussing how a lakes cutter can magically produce winter precip for a CAD region ? forgive me, i did not know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 so lets live in fantasy land where we dream up storms.... So, let me get this right......you think that the 150 hour solution is the one that we will end up with and anyone that thinks it will be different is living in a fantasy world?? Good luck with that. Come verification time it will certainly be different....either for the better or for the worse. Mods do not tolerate posts of this nature in our discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 what do you think happens when you have a warm front overrunning a inversion? inversion weakens and dew points go up. it's clearly there on the 12z gfs. Please link to where I said it wasn't there on the 12Z GFS. What you are asserting is that everything will happen exactly as the 12Z GFS portrays. That's a much more obsurd position to be in than discussing what could happen which might cause future runs to show something other than a warm front overrunning an inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 We are still trying to figure out what you are talking about? Everyone else seems to be on the same page. i see what yall are talking about. i see that low in eastern NC. still wont be cold enough. it still looks like a frontal passage also with this being a kata front most likely, the cold will not catch up to the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 I don't think it's a long shot. If you look at the anomaly charts both the GFS and Euro are sniffing out something 168hrs and on...in fact, the euro begins to tank at the end of the run, FWIW. I think both models are sniffing out something and it's most likely not next weeks storm but a storm for the week following, or basically the weekend of Feb 1st. Oh yeah, I agree with you. I was talking about for the next storm. It seems like too short a timeframe for the models to be way off on that....but stranger things have happened! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Please link to where I said it wasn't there on the 12Z GFS. What you are asserting is that everything will happen exactly as the 12Z GFS portrays. That's a much more obsurd position to be in than discussing what could happen which might cause future runs to show something other than a warm front overrunning an inversion. i think you are looking at the QPF. QPF is quantified, which means that preicp that fell was probably before the cold front passed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 i see what yall are talking about. i see that low in eastern NC. still wont be cold enough. it still looks like a frontal passage also with this being a kata front most likely, the cold will not catch up to the precip.Then why are you acting like a spoiled child. Nobody said this was a snow storm. People are discussing possibilities while you are taking the 6day gfs as the absolute exact solution that is gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Oh yeah, I agree with you. I was talking about for the next storm. It seems like too short a timeframe for the models to be way off on that....but stranger things have happened! Oh ok, gotcha...yeah the +PNA seems to return at the end of the month as well...here's to hoping that's the case. I don't have much hope for next week (who would at this point) but considering what happened with the last storm in short range models and trends, stranger things have happened indeed. To all of you arguing you know your stuff will be thrown to banter soon, so cut it out or take it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 good, so why are some hyping it up? and there is no good trend for a lakes cutter LOLOL a warm front will erode the inversion regardless of how it trends. I think you need to study the classic depiction of Miller B's. Some of our worst ice storms here in the CAD region have come from a primary low in southern Indiana with a secondary along the SE coast. When you have a strong confluence in the northeast you will get that type of set-up. My suggestion is for you to do some more research before you attack anyone. It just goes to show the ignorance in your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 i think you are looking at the QPF. QPF is quantified, which means that preicp that fell was probably before the cold front passed... What?? Who said anything about QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think you need to study the classic depiction of Miller B's. Some of our worst ice storms here in the CAD region have come from a primary low in southern Indiana with a secondary along the SE coast. When you have a strong confluence in the northeast you will get that type of set-up. My suggestion is for you to do some more research before you attack anyone. It just goes to show the ignorance in your posts. i know what a miller b storm is. i wrote a 8 pages paper on it for my synoptic met class. this looks like a frontal passage and temps are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 FYI. Lp that goes west of the mountains often has CAD, can have wintry precip in specific areas, and will eventually have a frontal passage. Often the warm front does not make it into these areas and I believe this is what a couple of the models are hinting at. MP, where do you live? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 we heard that argument before with the storm in early jan. we can go on about what we need for a storm all day, but we should focus on what we have. To borrow a word from my man, Bevo: Bollocks! The whole point of being on here is to discuss possibilities. Why hang out if you don't want to look at possibilities? Ncwinterwxman didn't say it was going to snow. He pointed out some things that would need to change if we wanted a storm. He didn't say that they would change. In fact, he was pointing out why it is currently unlikely for it to snow based on the three imperfect features he was highlighting. So, what's wrong with pointing out the current faults in the atmosphere as it is currently modeled? We all know that the weather next weekend will not look exactly like it currently does on the 12 GFS from today. What's the harm? In fact, his graphic helped me understand a little better what I would be looking for in future runs of any model for a potential threat at any time (not necessarily next weekend). I have been a member of various forums for several years. It provides an opportunity for professionals and enthusiast alike to discuss debate, interpret, and further our understanding of meteorology. That's what I myself and many others aim to do when signing on. We are the majority on this forum. So, please stop trolling for statements you personally disagree with and taking another opportunity to be condescending. You have done this since I've been a member and it really contributes nothing to the board. Thanks - Well said, sir. Please join in the debate and post your thoughts in the future, as you are willing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 At 144 hours the euro has the low over knoxville while the gfs same time is in ohio. Gfs ensemble mean is much farther south and would be nice for nc. With arctic air firmly in the east this could trend better. Maybe ice for some folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 NOAA recon has yet to sample, so there's that....I have no idea why they're sampling at those coordinates though. 000NOUS42 KNHC 191849REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.0115 PM EST SAT 19 JANUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JANUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-050I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 A. P52/ DROP 10 (22.3N 129.0W)/ 21/0000Z B. NOAA9 03WSC TRACK52 C. 20/1930Z D. 19 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 21/0600Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE P52/ DROP 10 (22.3N 129.0W)/ 22/0000z 3. REMARKS: MISSION ON TRACK 56 FOR 19/0000Z WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED ON WSPOD 12-048. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 i know what a miller b storm is. i wrote a 8 pages paper on it for my synoptic met class. this looks like a frontal passage and temps are too warm. Maybe you should chose another major..... just a thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I am glad that helped someone. Thanks for saying so... To borrow a word from my man, Bevo: Bollocks! The whole point of being on here is to discuss possibilities. Why hang out if you don't want to look at possibilities? Ncweatherman didn't say it was going to snow. He pointed out some things that would need to change if we wanted a storm. He didn't say that they would change. In fact, he was pointing out why it is currently unlikely for it to snow based on the three imperfect features he was highlighting. So, what's wrong with pointing out the current faults in the atmosphere as it is currently modeled? We all know that the weather next weekend will not look exactly like it currently does on the 12 GFS from today. What's the harm? In fact, his graphic helped me understand a little better what I would be looking for in future runs of any model for a potential threat at any time (not necessarily next weekend). Well said, sir. Please join in the debate and post your thoughts in the future, as you are willing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 What we have is a possible storm more than 6 days out, which means we have nothing at the present time. It seems more foolish to proceed from a point of certainty than from one of possibility for a storm more than 150 hours out. The STJ s/w we see at 120 hrs on the Euro needs to trend much stronger to have a chance at wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yep...strongly agree...there is point #4 from my previous graphic... The STJ s/w we see at 120 hrs on the Euro needs to trend much stronger to have a chance at wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 NOAA recon has yet to sample, so there's that....I have no idea why they're sampling at those coordinates though. 000NOUS42 KNHC 191849REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.0115 PM EST SAT 19 JANUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JANUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-050I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 A. P52/ DROP 10 (22.3N 129.0W)/ 21/0000Z B. NOAA9 03WSC TRACK52 C. 20/1930Z D. 19 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 21/0600Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE P52/ DROP 10 (22.3N 129.0W)/ 22/0000z 3. REMARKS: MISSION ON TRACK 56 FOR 19/0000Z WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED ON WSPOD 12-048. Could it be they want to sample that energy coming into the STJ? Perhaps they want to see if it will be strong enough to interact with the northern energy? Your guess is as good as mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Here you go. See graphic below. explain how that setup can produce winter precip for NC piedmont..... im intrigued now Are you asking about the graphic above? The 50/50 low would force the energy to dig more number 1. and correct me if I'm wrong but a taller PNA ridge would force the cold air out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 The STJ s/w we see at 120 hrs on the Euro needs to trend much stronger to have a chance at wintry weather. Sorry...I was toggling between two different topics. The storm on the GFS at around that time was the one I was referencing with that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Didn't some models for last weeks storm just have light precip from about 5-7 days out? I even remember dt talking about it being an event that wouldn't cause school or work problems. Goes to show how things changed. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 explain how that setup can produce winter precip for NC piedmont..... im intrigued now The exact depiction would not be a winter precip set-up but, you can't just take the models at face value. If that were the case, Mets would be out of a job. We would all just model-watch and know what was going to happen......remember models are only tools. You have to look at them and try to figure what their biases are and then introduce all possible outcomes. Here is the latest GSP discussion. A POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST THU NIGHT AND THEN SHARPEN UP W OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRI. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THU AND START TO GENERATE LIGHT UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE SW MTNS THU EVENING. GIVEN THE DRY PROFILES IN PLACE...IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN PTYPES AT THIS POINT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREAD IN LATER THU NIGHT. ALL THE MODELS HAVE SOME DEGREE OF WARM NOSING...BUT THE WET BULBS MAY LAG. WILL FEATURE A BRIEF TRANSITION OF WINTRY PTYPES ACROSS THE NC MTNS WITH MAINLY A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THREAT TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE BEST WARM ADVECTION LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL TRANSIT THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...BUT FORCING UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT AS THICKNESSES PLUNGE AGAIN WITH FROPA. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO SAT...WHILE THE ECM REMAINS TO THE WEST. NW UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET IN THE MTNS...BUT IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE CAN CLEAR THE PIEDMONT BEFORE PROFILES COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The exact depiction would not be a winter precip set-up but, you can't just take the models at face value. If that were the case, Mets would be out of a job. We would all just model-watch and know what was going to happen......remember models are only tools. You have to look at them and try to figure what their biases are and then introduce all possible outcomes. Here is the latest GSP discussion. A POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST THU NIGHT AND THEN SHARPEN UP W OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRI. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THU AND START TO GENERATE LIGHT UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE SW MTNS THU EVENING. GIVEN THE DRY PROFILES IN PLACE...IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN PTYPES AT THIS POINT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREAD IN LATER THU NIGHT. ALL THE MODELS HAVE SOME DEGREE OF WARM NOSING...BUT THE WET BULBS MAY LAG. WILL FEATURE A BRIEF TRANSITION OF WINTRY PTYPES ACROSS THE NC MTNS WITH MAINLY A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THREAT TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE BEST WARM ADVECTION LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL TRANSIT THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...BUT FORCING UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT AS THICKNESSES PLUNGE AGAIN WITH FROPA. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO SAT...WHILE THE ECM REMAINS TO THE WEST. NW UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET IN THE MTNS...BUT IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE CAN CLEAR THE PIEDMONT BEFORE PROFILES COOL DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED. So NW snowfall and cold chasing the moisture? ill wait till next week to get excited about this. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Might belong in tidbits but since we're talking about the particular storm... Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 12z ECMWF ENS mean snowfall forecast snows 1-2 inches for much of western and northern NC next Friday night/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Dt has an excellent writeup on his Facebook page as well Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Folks I think people need to calm down...February is going to be rockin around here..I personally think that most places in nc will at least double there snowfall annual averages just in February..sit back and relax were in for one heck of a finish to winter!!! I thought I heard that before January is going to be rocking round here...patience my friends we are in for an historic winter..nao n ao look to be in the negative range for some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'd like to talk about the hints of a split flow, and what that could do to future maps, and even sensible weather, but since it's only hints, I guess I'd best talk about the 50's and sun outside, and my surety I won't see sleet today, or even this evening, as evidenced by the radar. But that's not much fun, and pretty much belongs in observation, so I'm going to bring it up here in discussion, even though it's non existent and might not occur. But CR saw it too, and as the hype could be great in coming days, all the way to a string of winter storms like the world has never seen, if everything came together, like in my dreams But the future is a mystery, even for the top weathermen, out past a short, short view, and it's a lot more fun to speak of maybe's and whatif's, than the weather for today and tomorrow, if something better might be out there. I know, better to take what you have, and be surprised by the future, but we're humans, and most of us yearn to look over the hill, or at least wonder what kind of weather their having over there, or to look over the edge of the world and wonder what's coming. You look at a map and you arrange the bits into a pattern you hope it will change too, and could using our modern understanding of weather, or, depending on your bent, you arrange them in another way. We all do it, to the good or to the bad. It probably won't happen....it's the weather...and that has to be your starting point, this far out. Not worth a snippet of snark. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 EURO snowfall lurking nearby...nothing a few trends can't fix for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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