Southern Track Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I like the look of these rolling into February: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yeah, I see what you mean, if we could have that piece of southern energy break off and than the trailing northern energy phase with it and than dig far enough south....I think we got better luck winning the lottery tonight, but it's atleast something to watch... Yeah, it's a long shot at this point. I don't even know what it takes to get a true Gulf low anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yeah, it's a long shot at this point. I don't even know what it takes to get a true Gulf low anymore. The SE ridge to dissapate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 The SE ridge to dissapate. But it's on vacation for a while now, right? At Taco Bell and can't see any models except for the ones behind the counter, and they aint nothing to look at, let me tell ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 12z GFS was very close for a major east coast storm. Just look at how much cold air it's pulling in on the back side. Wow. Wow interesting. And its not even that far out in fantasy land.Well it would've been better if it came from Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 It is a great event for flash freezing rain puddles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yeah, it's a long shot at this point. I don't even know what it takes to get a true Gulf low anymore. When I see the 0 line down into Fla. then I'll get excited about sleet/snow chances. As long as the cold treats Ga. like a swimming pool it's afraid to put more than a toe in, and, only after the moisture moves out, we'll just get bad chances with warm ground to recieve the non bounty with, lol. One of the z's, maybe the 6 had the cold into Fla. but I'd need to see that for a bunch of runs, or else it's just more of the same light petting, lol. Still, it's better than last winter all ready, right? And that's all we wanted, right? Anything better that last winter? Lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 12z GFS did not look bad for 7 days out. It looks like it was a little south of the 6z. Not trying to look at every run (or wishcast) but I do think this could still trend in our favor. We have some good things in our favor this time around: Inital cold air / dew points, cold ground, and a CAD look showing at the day 7 time frame. Might be Tuesday until we can either get excited or start to look for the next chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 12z GFS did not look bad for 7 days out. It looks like it was a little south of the 6z. Not trying to look at every run (or wishcast) but I do think this could still trend in our favor. We have some good things in our favor this time around: Inital cold air / dew points, cold ground, and a CAD look showing at the day 7 time frame. Might be Tuesday until we can either get excited or start to look for the next chance. Agree Falls. Lots of time for this event to trend better. I think it has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Trending from nothing to possibly something but likely nothing. Good minor trends this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well the Euro basically says, "what storm"? Has a clipper type storm coming in on the cold front with a very weak cold chasing rain event...but does it ever get cold. 850 line goes down to Miami on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 pcbjr will like this run. It has freezing temps getting down into Orlando at 210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well the Euro basically says, "what storm"? Has a clipper type storm coming in on the cold front with a very weak cold chasing rain event...but does it ever get cold. 850 line goes down to Miami on this run. Not saying you're wrong, but on the 24 hour maps I can see it looks more intriguing than that. At 120...it has a LP developing over SE CO/TX Panhandle whith a northern stream system in MT. Meanwhile...at the same time arctic air is well entrenched over much of the Eastern third of the nation. By day 6 the LP is over the Carolina Apps...so there is something there that will need to be monitored. Plenty of time for this to trend one way or the other, but I would not be surprised to see a stronger southern stream LP tracking further south. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Trending from nothing to possibly something but likely nothing. I like someone who isn't afraid to take a firm stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Not saying you're wrong, but on the 24 hour maps I can see it looks more intriguing than that. At 120...it has a LP developing over SE CO/TX Panhandle whith a northern stream system in MT. Meanwhile...at the same time arctic air is well entrenched over much of the Eastern third of the nation. By day 6 the LP is over the Carolina Apps...so there is something there that will need to be monitored. Plenty of time for this to trend one way or the other, but I would not be surprised to see this end up tracking further south. We'll see. Yes, your right, the northern stream energy was weaker, but it still popped a low. After the last storm where the GFS kicked the Euro's butt at this range we can't discount the GFS at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The day 5 EURO SLP/850 map shows the arctic boundary over the US... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The day 5 EURO SLP/850 map shows the arctic boundary over the US... [/quote With that kind of cold to the north, it will be hard to not have some sort of wintry precip should something develop as some models are showing. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This is a classic case where we REALLY need a strong WEST-BASED -NAO and a much further southward placed 50/50 low. Otherwise, this is a northern MA and New England storm. Things to watch for include: 1. The placement AND STRENGTH of the ridge out on the west coast for further south trough amplification off of the east coast 2. Stronger, more southward placed 50/50 low 3. Stronger block over Greenland (-NAO) I will post a graphic here in just a bit to explain this better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 idk what everyone is seeing in that storm on the 12z gfs. we are in the warm sector the entire time, with the exception of the cold front passage. if you have a warm front over-running a CAD, the inversion erodes FAST. as seen in the rising dew points ahead of the cold front. this will be all rain for the CAD areas. can we also stop posting snow maps? because all that does is hype up an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Here you go. See graphic below. This is a classic case where we REALLY need a strong WEST-BASED -NAO and a much further southward placed 50/50 low. Otherwise, this is a northern MA and New England storm. Things to watch for include: 1. The placement AND STRENGTH of the ridge out on the west coast for further south trough amplification off of the east coast2. Stronger, more southward placed 50/50 low3. Stronger block over Greenland (-NAO) I will post a graphic here in just a bit to explain this better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Here you go. See graphic below. we heard that argument before with the storm in early jan. we can go on about what we need for a storm all day, but we should focus on what we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 At the end of the run, there looks to be a split flow developing. It would be nice to see it verify. There is a also weak ridging into cenral Greenland and a weakness in NE Canada which is no bueno. In this type of scenario, you'd want to see a system in the northern stream come by just ahead of something in the southern stream, so that the cold can slide in first. The 240 Euro image is below. It's most certain not to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 we heard that argument before with the storm in early jan. we can go on about what we need for a storm all day, but we should focus on what we have. I have been a member of various forums for several years. It provides an opportunity for professionals and enthusiast alike to discuss debate, interpret, and further our understanding of meteorology. That's what I myself and many others aim to do when signing on. We are the majority on this forum. So, please stop trolling for statements you personally disagree with and taking another opportunity to be condescending. You have done this since I've been a member and it really contributes nothing to the board. Thanks - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 idk what everyone is seeing in that storm on the 12z gfs. we are in the warm sector the entire time, with the exception of the cold front passage. if you have a warm front over-running a CAD, the inversion erodes FAST. as seen in the rising dew points ahead of the cold front. this will be all rain for the CAD areas. can we also stop posting snow maps? because all that does is hype up an event. Everyone is seeing rain, verbatim. Nobody is calling for snow. The prog is probably not going to verify as depicted, so it's ok to talk about how it could trend, one way or the other. We've already seen the bottom of some of these troughs break off and separate from the northern stream. If that happens in this case, it may not then be a clear-cut rain scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Here you go. See graphic below. Those are good points. That big low about to crash into the ridge on the west coast will probably keep it from exploding northward like we'd want. Also, given the trends lately, a strong West-based -NAO seems like a long shot, unfortunately. Maybe it'll trend better though. There's still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I have been a member of various forums for several years. It provides an opportunity for professionals and enthusiast alike to discuss debate, interpret, and further our understanding of meteorology. That's what I myself and many others aim to do when signing on. We are the majority on this forum. So, please stop trolling for statements you personally disagree with and taking another opportunity to be condescending. You have done this since I've been a member and it really contributes nothing to the board. Thanks - well said...mp184qcr has a history of these kinds of posts and there's no place for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 we heard that argument before with the storm in early jan. we can go on about what we need for a storm all day, but we should focus on what we have. What we have is a possible storm more than 6 days out, which means we have nothing at the present time. It seems more foolish to proceed from a point of certainty than from one of possibility for a storm more than 150 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 good, so why are some hyping it up? and there is no good trend for a lakes cutter LOLOL a warm front will erode the inversion regardless of how it trends. I think the confusion is in your definition of hyping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 What we have is a possible storm more than 6 days out, which means we have nothing at the present time. It seems more foolish to proceed from a point of certainty than from one of possibility for a storm more than 150 hours out. what do you think happens when you have a warm front overrunning a inversion? inversion weakens and dew points go up. it's clearly there on the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Those are good points. That big low about to crash into the ridge on the west coast will probably keep it from exploding northward like we'd want. Also, given the trends lately, a strong West-based -NAO seems like a long shot, unfortunately. Maybe it'll trend better though. There's still time. I don't think it's a long shot. If you look at the anomaly charts both the GFS and Euro are sniffing out something 168hrs and on...in fact, the euro begins to tank at the end of the run, FWIW. I think both models are sniffing out something and it's most likely not next weeks storm but a storm for the week following, or basically the weekend of Feb 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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