January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[Met1985]

 Yeah, based on warm Dec. analogs, I do think we need to watch it and the rest of the last part of Jan. and into early Feb. for a potential major ZR. On a second look, it does appear to be producing some ZR in WNC on 1/25.

Ya Larry looks like couple hours of Ice in the mountains then changing to all snow for a few hours. Also notice Ice all the way down to northern GA. That could be pretty bad with a cold ground.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Just peaked at the GFS...definite ice storm potential Friday/Saturday. The massive difference that could give the storm some potential is that we'll have airmass in place or at the worst in the process of departing. Also noticed an additional shot of arctic air. Euro has been showing that for several runs now, first time I've noticed that on the GFS.

[Met1985]

Just peaked at the GFS...definite ice storm potential Friday/Saturday. The massive difference that could give the storm some potential is that we'll have airmass in place or at the worst in the process of departing. Also noticed an additional shot of arctic air. Euro has been showing that for several runs now, first time I've noticed that on the GFS.

Ya Euro has really been harping on this for a couple days and look like the GFS is just now picking this up.

[Carvers Gap]

Well, the 0z GFS answers the question as to what HPC was looking at...system next weekend seems a likely candidate. Pretty impressive Nor'easter depicted, especially @ hr 189. Pretty expansive system.

[GaWx]

I should also add that major ZR's in the Atl. area have occurred during neutral negative ENSO by a sig. margin in frequency over any other single ENSO phase. In addition, late January has been about as active as any period for major ZR at Atl. since 1879. So, we have both ENSO and warm Dec. analogs together with late Jan. climo suggesting an elevated shot at major ZR in SE CAD areas around the time of this Gfs depicted 1/25 ZR. Just something to monitor for now, but interesting to say the least.

[LithiaWx]

Larry, the gfs has moderated the cold to an extreme degree. Remember the single digits it was showing at one point for ATL? The gfs proves once again LR cold cant be believed at face value.

[GaWx]

Larry, the gfs has moderated the cold to an extreme degree. Remember the single digits it was showing at one point for ATL? The gfs proves once again LR cold cant be believed at face value.

Yes, you're correct. However, just considering warm Dec./neutral neg. Enso/late Jan. ZR climo, I've already been eyeing this general period for possible ZR.

[Marion_NC_WX]

0z Euro @ 144...we may have a new player on the table

[SN_Lover]

0z Euro @ 144...we may have a new player on the table

 

Correct, but the placement of the low would quickly erode any inversion that would be present even in the GFS run before. 

[toxictwister00]

00z ECMWF dropping the elbow from the sky at hr 192. There's a weak low at TX/LA border as well, with this kind of cold I'm sure it's going to be suppressed.

 

EDIT: Arctic cold continues til hr. 216, moderates significantly by hr 240.

 

 

 

For some reason hr. 168 is missing on the Raleigh site, so here it is from instantweathermaps, that's the timeframe when the cold air actually dives in.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/543/usatmp850mb168l.gif/'>

[Shawn]

Looking @ the 00z Euro @ 192+ would mean supression city for any low especially originiating in the Gulf.  I'd rather be seasonal/warm since the cold really lets go at the end of the run.

[SN_Lover]

00z ECMWF dropping the elbow from the sky at hr 192. There's a weak low at TX/LA border as well, with this kind of cold I'm sure it's going to be suppressed.

 

EDIT: Arctic cold continues til hr. 216, moderates significantly by hr 240.

 

 

 

 

For some reason hr. 168 is missing on the Raleigh site, so here it is from instantweathermaps, that's the timeframe when the cold air actually dives in.

yea, looks transient to me. 

[valkhorn]

It it pretty obvious what HPC is doing. There is a very good setup for a potentially crippling nor'easter in 7 days. They want to make sure the data is right.

The cold shot this week won't be bad, but the one over the weekend has serious potential if a nor'easter forms. We've got to learn a few lessons from this past storm. It wasn't on the models until the NAM locked it. The model was also wrong about snow on the SE side. The gfs didn't see it until 48 hours away. The GFS was also wrong about this next cold shot. The Euro keeps wanting to pull down cold air, but it doesnt happen. Now we are approaching a favorable pattern with a good setup of a nor'easter followed by a good but not record breaking cold shot. The cold air is available, but don't expect miracles.

It all depends on whether the storm next weekend phases so serious cold air can pour in. That my friends is our next big player. Potentially.

[NavarreDon]

06Z GFS still showing the storm next weekend. It is out there in the time frame but it is a whopper! Blows up to 973 in the N Atlantic. As has been said above this is surely what they wanted sampled. I bet the group up north is going gaga about this map.

 

[tnweathernut]

I see the player on the field, but don't understand what anyone would think it has potential? Just glancing at the maps it would appear to me that we would need a huge shift to see anything from it. Perhaps the cold banked east if the apps means a period a zr, but even that would probably be nothing more than an inconvenience type of event before changing over to cold rain.

Sure, this could be a bomb for the northern midatlantic and points north. That would allow the cold air to come rushing in, probably the coldest air of year. Are we pinning our hopes on the timeframe just after the nor'easter for some southern development?

Am I missing something?

[Cold Rain]

I see the player on the field, but don't understand what anyone would think it has potential? Just glancing at the maps it would appear to me that we would need a huge shift to see anything from it. Perhaps the cold banked east if the apps means a period a zr, but even that would probably be nothing more than an inconvenience type of event before changing over to cold rain.

Sure, this could be a bomb for the northern midatlantic and points north. That would allow the cold air to come rushing in, probably the coldest air of year. Are we pinning our hopes on the timeframe just after the nor'easter for some southern development?

I'm not too excited about it yet, but a huge shift of some sort is almost guaranteed at 180 hours out, if that's the one you're talking about. Definitely worth watching IMO, but at this point, like you said, it looks like a bigger threat for our friends up north. Still more than enough time for things to change, though.

Am I missing something?

[FallsLake]

I think we definitly have a chance at a storm. It seems that LR models do not handel CAD setups (Miller Bs), in LR range times peroids (say past 5 days). **Because the GFS is even showing this (past 7 days) would put more weight towards a shift south in later runs.

[WilkesboroDude]

Next potential event...same day next week.

The new European model (ecmwf) is even more robust

with the precipitation over the mountains late Thursday night while the GFS has

no precipitation in any of our zones even at 12z Friday. BUFKIT GFS

soundings have a mostly freezing rain profile from Hickory to Marion

with a mix of snow and -fzra for the northern mountains this brief wintry

precipitation will only last Friday morning until warming occurs if the

precipitation gets into the area at this time. According to the European model (ecmwf)...the bulk of

the frontal precipitation will cross the mountains and foothills around 18z

Friday. According to the GFS...it will be delayed until Friday

evening in 00z to midnight period.

[burgertime]

12z GFS looks very interesting at 5h, you've got some energy coming on the back side which could possibly phase.

[burgertime]

12z GFS was very close for a major east coast storm. Just look at how much cold air it's pulling in on the back side. Wow. 

 

[tnweathernut]

Looks like something that could be good for central and eastern Carolina to me. Interesting 500 look....that's for sure.

[burgertime]

Looks like something that could be good for central and eastern Carolina to me. Interesting 500 look....that's for sure.

 

If that energy could phase sooner you would be talking a big dog for the MA and NE with probably some back side snow for parts of the SE. We'll see if the Euro bits. If I'm in the MA and NE I would be getting a little optimistic especially since NWS seems to think something is afoot.

[packbacker]

12z GFS was very close for a major east coast storm. Just look at how much cold air it's pulling in on the back side. Wow. 

 

This is mostly all northern stream dropping down and we need it to dig a lot more, this usually doesn't work out for our area, I would be very interested in the MA/NE.

[NCSNOW]

@162 has a secondary starts cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast and rides up the seaboard. Maybe an eastern NC speacil. timing is a little off but would give some backside snow showers

[tnweathernut]

I think It's LOADED with potential for those guys (MA & NE)...but since when do we care about them.....? Haha

[packbacker]

The dual low setup reminds me of the event around new years which hit NE hard....It is a shame though with that 1034 high building in, we would need the northern stream to dig a lot more...if this blasted SSW would start working for us it could suppress this more.

 

[Cold Rain]

The first piece of energy needs to get out ahead of the second wave a little more. Probably would mean less phasing potential, but it would allow cold air to perhaps build in more and suppress the trailing wave some. And like y'all said, if the second piece would dig more....but that's asking a lot these days.

[eyewall]

I wouldn't get too excited. It looks to me like a borderline lakes cutter that transfers its energy to a coastal. This would be nothing but rain in NC. In fact we essentially end up in the warm sector.  For the northeast this would be a snow....rain/mix...snow situation. We would need this thing to emerge off the TX coast as opposed to rolling through AR. It would then need to ride east through the northern Gulf and cross the northern FL Peninsula as it turns northeastward off GA/SC/NC.

[packbacker]

The first piece of energy needs to get out ahead of the second wave a little more. Probably would mean less phasing potential, but it would allow cold air to perhaps build in more and suppress the trailing wave some. And like y'all said, if the second piece would dig more....but that's asking a lot these days.

 

Yeah, I see what you mean, if we could have that piece of southern energy break off and than the trailing northern energy phase with it and than dig far enough south....I think we got better luck winning the lottery tonight, but it's atleast something to watch...

 

[GaWx]

I wouldn't get too excited. It looks to me like a borderline lakes cutter that transfers its energy to a coastal. This would be nothing but rain in NC. In fact we essentially end up in the warm sector.  For the northeast this would be a snow....rain/mix...snow situation. We would need this thing to emerge off the TX coast as opposed to rolling through AR. It would then need to ride east through the northern Gulf and cross the northern FL Peninsula as it turns northeastward off GA/SC/NC.

 

 Agree 100%. A phasing east coast big snowstorm like this is almost never good for the bulk of the SE. About all it can be good for usually is to bring down cold air on its backside. However, that's a dry cold at least initially. The low needs to be far to the south...Miller A..similar to what you described. Many of these are not strong and don't phase and never hit the NE hard or at all although some do.

 

 Based on analogs (warm Dec./neutral negative ENSO/late Jan. ZR climo), I see more of a chance for a Miller B'ish CAD/ZR than a Miller A snowstorm for late January although I'm not saying it is likely by any means. The Miller B could then hit the NE but that's not important for us, right? We'll see.