Bevo Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I maintain my opinion that the hyper active PAC has been the main villain. The SE ridge is like that crazy drunk uncle that is always around to interject slurred jokes that make the family dinner awkward. He's a mainstay though - never quite returning to his own house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Folks, We interrupt my regularly scheduled walk for this important announcement. Hot off the cell phone, the Euro weeklies have the SE US in below normal temp.'s for weeks 2, 3, and 4 due to a +PNA pattern together with an impressive -NAO/-AO. Week 2 has below normal precip. while 3 and 4 are near normal (pretty good for an often dry +PNA). So, overall this is a third in a row excellent release! Today's weeks 2 and 3 match the prior two weeklies' weeks 3 and 4, respectively. Week 4 is a brand new week for the Euro weeklies that ends on 2/10. Now back to my regularly scheduled walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Wow @276 Euro Weeklies have -20 850's coming down into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Wow @276 Euro Weeklies have -20 850's coming down into NC. Snow with the arctic front too, which really rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Reading that thread is like trying to read something in another language. LOL!!! I really know nothing much about it either but... The GWO stands for Global Wind Oscillation. The graph looks very much like a MJO graph and I'm assuming that if you can figure out what happens in each phase, you might be a meteorologist. Here is how it's read: And here is a real one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 LOL!!! I really know nothing much about it either but... The GWO stands for Global Wind Oscillation. The graph looks very much like a MJO graph and I'm assuming that if you can figure out what happens in each phase, you might be a meteorologist. Here is how it's read: And here is a real one Good Grief at the charts! My mind went blank. I know nothing about meteorology LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Wow @276 Euro Weeklies have -20 850's coming down into NC. At the same time on the 18z GFS -20 850s don't even reach down to Montreal Canada. Seems like a stretch to believe anything that far out. Just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Does anyone ever read the HPC model diagnostic discussion? It's almost always a blend of models to come up with a forecast anyway. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_model_diag_disco.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 LOL!!! I really know nothing much about it either but... The GWO stands for Global Wind Oscillation. The graph looks very much like a MJO graph and I'm assuming that if you can figure out what happens in each phase, you might be a meteorologist. Here is how it's read: And here is a real one Whoa...that makes my head hurt... Seriously, I've really been curious to learn more about this over the years. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Wow @276 Euro Weeklies have -20 850's coming down into NC. Burger, I don't know how that is from the Euro weeklies because the maps literally cover weeklong periods as opposed to being day by day. So, you have to be referring to something else although I can't figure out what is that something else. If a vendor is telling you that that is from the weeklies, something isn't making sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Burger, I don't know how that is from the Euro weeklies because the maps literally cover weeklong periods as opposed to being day by day. So, you have to be referring to something else although I can't figure out what is that something else. If a vendor is telling you that that is from the weeklies, something isn't making sense. Thinking it's the Euro Control run from AccuPro. Appreciate the Euro Weekly updates GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Thinking it's the Euro Control run from AccuPro. Appreciate the Euro Weekly updates GA AccuW had a monthly run too that supposedly the weeklies are based off but they don't have the anomaly maps which is what GaWx has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 the focus of this debate is a strong SE ridge, yet you cant seem to stay task here...your argument has now migrated all over the road to different points... you enjoy making up words other people do not voice in order to try and give yourself a back-handed pat on the back? the only back-pedaling is your argument of a strong SE ridge compared to your change to just "ridging"... & the fact that a strong-SE ridge has just now been present enough to thwart any cold that could move southeast... instead of your point that it has been strong all along... it has not yes, the 500mb vort is dampening out... I said nothing about return flow in my earlier post which you stated I denied existed around a high.... of course there will be a nice little Brier Creek flow around a high in the Gulf of Mexico... are you reading all of what I type or making up as much as possible? it may be time to get on your alter-ego screen name and go to work backing yourself up on this argument you have made between a strong SE ridge and basic ridging which is always present, but not strong You have a serious maturity problem. And that's really classy to add some non-sense to your post hours later. You're a real class act. You've been reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Burger, I don't know how that is from the Euro weeklies because the maps literally cover weeklong periods as opposed to being day by day. So, you have to be referring to something else although I can't figure out what is that something else. If a vendor is telling you that that is from the weeklies, something isn't making sense. Thinking it's the Euro Control run from AccuPro. Appreciate the Euro Weekly updates GA AccuW had a monthly run too that supposedly the weeklies are based off but they don't have the anomaly maps which is what GaWx has. That is correct this is a control run which shows 6 hour panels. However it does line up with what you have access to for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 it may be time to get on your alter-ego screen name[/u] and go to work backing yourself up on this argument you have made between a strong SE ridge and basic ridging which is always present, but not strong that one was banned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 But Str8cash was the one reported? Ummmm...riiiiiight...... Don't worry, he isn't alone anymore. This may be difficult to grasp, but this is the forecast thread. Everyone doesn't have to falsely believe a winter pattern is on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Don't worry, he isn't alone anymore. This may be difficult to grasp, but this is the forecasted thread. Everyone doesn't have to falsely believe a winter pattern is on the horizon.Falsely believe? So the ensembles are wrong? The euro ensembles have been steadfast at showing a favorable pattern for the upper south. Its a much better tool than the 384 hour gfs op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 that one was banned Thanks Midlo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 0z GFS must of been a bummer, anyone here for 0z euro tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 0z GFS must of been a bummer, anyone here for 0z euro tonight? Nah. Everyone is out buying bread and milk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Close to having a Ice storm in Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 0Z Euro giveth snow to much of NC and N SC on 1/18! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 0Z Euro giveth snow to much of NC and N SC on 1/18! Nice shot of cold following it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Euro looks really nice for North Carolina with that storm for next Friday, followed by one cold shot and a reinforcement at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Starting to sound good on here. Hard to get excited yet but definitely time to pay attention. Great posting guys thanks for all the work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Honestly I think it's silly to argue to fervently about anything beyond day 10 because there are bigger fish to fry in the short range. Namely the amount of moisture going across the SE in the next week or so. Something to consider is again that with all that activity even the ensembles will have difficulty seeing beyond that. It adds quite a bit of variability to the models that can lead to wild swings later on. Don't be surprised if the cold air vanishes in the long range ensembles over the next week. Also, there is a PV swinging down after day 10, but I don't think it'll be that cold in the SE and the chance for moisture will be low where the cold air is. But of course nobody wanted to really talk about Memphis getting snow last month, and since the rain is west of NC and isn't snow east of the apps most people won't care. I've seen more disappointments than surprises in these threads lately. We got spoiled two to three years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Hmm... Looks like College of DuPage might have to add colors to their 500 mb temperature maps for the upcoming cold in Canada. We still have to see how all of this evolves, but at least many of us will see more average temperatures, if not below, to end January. The jury is still out, imo, of how much below normal we could go. There's no doubt the northern tier of the country is about to go in to the freezer... But us? I'm hesitating a bit until I see WHERE the PV sets up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Euro looked juicy for next week. It's good when you're getting the Euro with so many runs in a row now seeing something in that time frame. Euro EPS control run also had the same look for NC and SC. The CMC kind of looked like the 00z which was not good last night. Guess we'll see if the GFS will catch on to what the Euro is selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Well the one big drawback is as of now it seems that the Euro is the only one seeing this. Of course people will take their chances with the Euro, but you would like to see at least one more model jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I guess the Euro shows the cold racing in to catch the moisture on Day 8, because on Day 7 the 850 0C line is way up in northern Virginia and precip has already started falling in a narrow band across NC. Cold chasing moisture -- not the best formula for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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