DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Could they be thinking of some type of phased system? I'm curious too, I also asked the question on the medium range winter forecast thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 000 NOUS42 KNHC 171731 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EST THU 17 JANUARY 2013 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JANUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-048 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49-- . A. P56/ DROP 11(44.3N 151.0W)/ 19/0000Z B. NOAA9 02WSC TRACK56 C. 18/1930Z D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 19/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. $$ JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 18z gfs has a threat for next weekend. TW Yup! Big winter storm signal there. See, this is why people shouldn't despair. With the PV lurking nearby a threat could pop up at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Yup! Big winter storm signal there. See, this is why people shouldn't despair. With the PV lurking nearby a threat could pop up at any time.As is, I'd say it is liquid moving into some residual arctic air leading to some degree of an ice event. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Yup! Big winter storm signal there. See, this is why people shouldn't despair. With the PV lurking nearby a threat could pop up at any time. Storm chances do have the tendency to come back on the same day of the week just 1 week later...something to watch but I don't think it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Storm chances do have the tendency to come back on the same day of the week just 1 week later...something to watch but I don't think it will happen. Funny you brought that up. I'm quite a few years older than you and me and some guys were talking about this very subject earlier today. I've seen this happen on several occasions. Usually it will last 3-4 weeks. I remember it happening a couple times in the 80"s and 90's particularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 HPC Extended Forecast Discussion was interesting today....Will not post it all. But what exactly are they looking at - just giving the pattern a look from the synoptics perspective? Srain mentioned this on the MB....I agree, I am not sure what they are looking at...I encourage you to go and read the whole text, but this is the portion that I am curious about: GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONALS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DAY 4.5 (22/00Z) WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE 2 PIECES OF GUIDANCE WITH THIS OVERALL AREAL SPREAD OF THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC BOUNDARY THROUGH DAY 6 IN THE MIDWEST...EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY DAY 4...THERE IS REASONABLE EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ATOP THIS SLOPED ARCTIC FRONT...AND BENEATH A COMPLEX 250MB JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA. Good catch! Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 This must be the concern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 HPC Extended Forecast Discussion was interesting today....Will not post it all. But what exactly are they looking at - just giving the pattern a look from the synoptics perspective? Srain mentioned this on the MB....I agree, I am not sure what they are looking at...I encourage you to go and read the whole text, but this is the portion that I am curious about: GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONALS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DAY 4.5 (22/00Z) WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE 2 PIECES OF GUIDANCE WITH THIS OVERALL AREAL SPREAD OF THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC BOUNDARY THROUGH DAY 6 IN THE MIDWEST...EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY DAY 4...THERE IS REASONABLE EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ATOP THIS SLOPED ARCTIC FRONT...AND BENEATH A COMPLEX 250MB JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA. Did they mention if the sky would be healed by then?.......Just playin Wilkes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 No 18Z joy down here ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 As is, I'd say it is liquid moving into some residual arctic air leading to some degree of an ice event. TW That high building in will be the key there. Looks ice stormish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 This must be the concern: The entire read by HPC is pretty interesting today. Actually, the rest of the discussion puts the referenced paragraph into context. After looking at the models, I just couldn't find what they were talking about...or even if it applied to the East which I feel it must after reading it several times. I couldn't completey tell if they are concerned w/ a storm impacting the lee of the Rockies or if a storm may leave that area and slide across the front they mentioned. But yes, the image you posted would fit their discussion, but it seems several days past what they would even worry about normally. But the way that front is draped acroos the U.S. certainly would spell trouble w/ the MJO where it is. It does seem that somebody over there is reading a pattern and maybe catching something before the models. I know you can find this on your own easily, but I'll link this for those who might not know where this discussion is... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Edit: Eyewall, that has to be what they are looking at...18z certainly has an interesting look. Not saying that is the exact scenario, but I think they are interested in that piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That high building in will be the key there. Looks ice stormish. I love Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Another possible clue for the HPC suspicion. Fom a met in MA thread, sorry forgot his name. "Gotta keep an eye on the system next Fri-Sat, the 25-26. Very Miller B-ish, come due east from the OH Vly, however the EC was correctly trending the low farther south. The antecedent cold air is key...if the confluence to the north and the lllvl cold air is as strong as we think it can be next week, and knowing that the models love to scour it out too soon in the medium range, we may have a legit shot here..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The entire read by HPC is pretty interesting today. Actually, the rest of the discussion puts the referenced paragraph into context. After looking at the models, I just couldn't find what they were talking about...or even if it applied to the East which I feel it must after reading it several times. I couldn't completey tell if they are concerned w/ a storm impacting the lee of the Rockies or if a storm may leave that area and slide across the front they mentioned. But yes, the image you posted would fit their discussion, but it seems several days past what they would even worry about normally. But the way that front is draped acroos the U.S. certainly would spell trouble w/ the MJO where it is. It does seem that somebody over there is reading a pattern and maybe catching something before the models. I know you can find this on your own easily, but I'll link this for those who might not know where this discussion is... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Edit: Eyewall, that has to be what they are looking at...18z certainly has an interesting look. Not saying that is the exact scenario, but I think they are interested in that piece of energy. And so it begins again....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The entire read by HPC is pretty interesting today. Actually, the rest of the discussion puts the referenced paragraph into context. After looking at the models, I just couldn't find what they were talking about...or even if it applied to the East which I feel it must after reading it several times. I couldn't completey tell if they are concerned w/ a storm impacting the lee of the Rockies or if a storm may leave that area and slide across the front they mentioned. But yes, the image you posted would fit their discussion, but it seems several days past what they would even worry about normally. But the way that front is draped acroos the U.S. certainly would spell trouble w/ the MJO where it is. It does seem that somebody over there is reading a pattern and maybe catching something before the models. I know you can find this on your own easily, but I'll link this for those who might not know where this discussion is... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Edit: Eyewall, that has to be what they are looking at...18z certainly has an interesting look. Not saying that is the exact scenario, but I think they are interested in that piece of energy. I looked at the 12z GFS before I read the HPC and (though I am not good at this) I thought they were talking about the little piece of energy that starts in OK/AR line at 150hr and seems to join or phase? into the storm around the Great Lakes. I've lurked for years around here but I'm determined to say something correct about a model at least once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 So the hpc is going to do a recon flight to check on a piece of energy between Hawaii and Alaska that may form a low on an arctic front 7 days from now? Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 So the hpc is going to do a recon flight to check on a piece of energy between Hawaii and Alaska that may form a low on an arctic front 7 days from now? Cool Why would they do a recon flight? Can they learn things like when they fly into hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Why would they do a recon flight? Can they learn things like when they fly into hurricanes. Often when energy is coming on shore and could turn into a big storm they like to fly a recon flight in to get real time information in order to ensure that the models are capturing the data correctly. If not then it can have major implications down stream. Often during winter when there are possible big storms being showed on models they will fly in and get new data for the models to ingest and give a better chance of predicting the weather better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Why would they do a recon flight? Can they learn things like when they fly into hurricanes. For some reason they have an idea that this energy needs to be sampled much before it effects us down here in the lower 48. Don't see that too much, so something's up. Maybe they have some awesome private super model they're using that's showing a blizzard later on or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 So the hpc is going to do a recon flight to check on a piece of energy between Hawaii and Alaska that may form a low on an arctic front 7 days from now? Cool Is this the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Often when energy is coming on shore and could turn into a big storm they like to fly a recon flight in to get real time information in order to ensure that the models are capturing the data correctly. If not then it can have major implications down stream. Often during winter when there are possible big storms being showed on models they will fly in and get new data for the models to ingest and give a better chance of predicting the weather better. For some reason they have an idea that this energy needs to be sampled much before it effects us down here in the lower 48. Don't see that too much, so something's up. Maybe they have some awesome private super model they're using that's showing a blizzard later on or something. Thank you burgertime and Shawn. That make a lot of sense, keep feeding current info into the compute so the model doesn't stray to far. I need to go to the 101 forum and read about Models. I'd complain about the bust last night, but I got hammered March of '09 with 11-12 inches. I really can't complain, have to take the good and the bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 162 looks like a decent cad sig to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Somebody should be sounding the alarm for late next week/weekend! Is nobody else looking at the gfs? It's very close to something big if not already there for some. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 174 close, I guess cold chasing moisture again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think it ha ice written all over it Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 174 close, I guess cold chasing moisture again? We need to be hoping for a south trend if we want something out of this one besides some front-end ice. Hey, at least it's a start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Another big rain storm at 288, It don't look to bad in the lr to me? But I don't know much maybe some of you that knows more than me can fill us in! Looks like colds shots and storms keep on coming just need to time something up right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think it already depicts a decent shot of ice for the better cad areas. Any further trend south or a stronger locked in hp would be all freezing/frozen for the NW piedmont and northern foothills. This time the ground will be cold. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Somebody should be sounding the alarm for late next week/weekend! Is nobody else looking at the gfs? It's very close to something big if not already there for some. Tw Yeah, based on warm Dec. analogs, I do think we need to watch it and the rest of the last part of Jan. and into early Feb. for a potential major ZR. On a second look, it does appear to be producing some ZR in WNC on 1/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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