January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[GreensboroWx]

I don't know...anytime you have the cold or cold lurking you have to be on the lookout for something to happen. There's going to be a lot of cold around during the next couple of weeks. Yes, there will be a warm up or two for a couple of days, but nothing like what we just went through. 

 

IF the MJO can get to 8, then the STJ can get cranking and that puts us in a much favorable position. There's a LONG ways to go yet and I'm pretty confident the SE will have another couple of shots of something. 

 

Yes, the GFS ensemble looked cold in the long term, but when hasn't it 

[packbacker]

I don't know...anytime you have the cold or cold lurking you have to be on the lookout for something to happen. There's going to be a lot of cold around during the next couple of weeks. Yes, there will be a warm up or two for a couple of days, but nothing like what we just went through. 

 

IF the MJO can get to 8, then the STJ can get cranking and that puts us in a much favorable position. There's a LONG ways to go yet and I'm pretty confident the SE will have another couple of shots of something. 

 

Yes, the GFS ensemble looked cold in the long term, but when hasn't it 

 

For us bitter folks the world is coming to an end and we will never see snow again in our lifetimes 

For you folks that just cashed in you have a completely different mindset 

 

But yes, it will be interesting to see if this blasted stratosphere does deliver at some point and if the MJO can get into 8 with moderate amplitude.  The SOI has been essentially neutral for a couple of weeks now, if that would take a dive that would makes things very interesting.  Of course I just had 3 "if" statements that we need to happen.  Nice thing is I can take a break from these bloody forums for a week or two.

[Cold Rain]

Actually we will have a couple of days next week that are below normal, but I think we will have several seasonal and a few above average days to finish out January, which I don't mind at all. I will be interested to see where this Dec/Jan ranks as far as all time warmth, I bet it's top 10.

Yeah, I'll bet if it's not top ten, it'll be close. At least it doesn't look to warm up and stay warm for weeks on end.

[SN_Lover]

But the 384 GFS ensemble mean looks cold.

i think if we look that far ahead, then we have problems weather wise. 

[Cold Rain]

I don't know...anytime you have the cold or cold lurking you have to be on the lookout for something to happen. There's going to be a lot of cold around during the next couple of weeks. Yes, there will be a warm up or two for a couple of days, but nothing like what we just went through.

IF the MJO can get to 8, then the STJ can get cranking and that puts us in a much favorable position. There's a LONG ways to go yet and I'm pretty confident the SE will have another couple of shots of something.

Yes, the GFS ensemble looked cold in the long term, but when hasn't it

At some point, this expectation seems to have been conjured that we should be able to see and track a winter storm for our area 1-2 weeks out, when that's simply not the case in this area. 9 times out of 10, our storms appear within 5-7 days or less. This past storm is a great illustration of that.

If there's cold nearby and there is a chance for a system to track through, then there is potential. And that's the point.

At least we seem to be in a more "normal" pattern now, which I believe will provide the potential we need.

[GaWx]

Actually we will have a couple of days next week that are below normal, but I think we will have several seasonal and a few above average days to finish out January, which I don't mind at all.  I will be interested to see where this Dec/Jan ranks as far as all time warmth, I bet it's top 10.

 

 For KATL, it definitely would be a top 10 warmest Dec./Jan. assuming Jan. ends at my projection of 48.5. Going back to 1879-80, the Dec/Jan of 2012-3 would end up tied for 6th with two others, the warmest since 1956-7, and barely warmer than 2011-2. The five warmer ones: 1956-7, 1949-50, 1931-2, 1889-90, and 1879-80. I suspect that it would be one of the warmest Dec./Jan. for much of the SE US though I don't know how much of the SE would be top 10 warmest.

[franklin NCwx]

Not sure why everyone is so down on the pattern still? Besides the few days of a western trough the cold comes again.

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zensindices.html

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html

[tarheelwx]

Euro is downright cold for NC next week

TW

[NCSNOW]

This time last week the consensus was hopefully the pattern would change by 1/20. We saw models showing mid-long range cold and everyone was skeptical given the fact it was 60's plus outside and we where reaching midpoint of winter and models had been playing "Lucy" in long range all along. There was no indication last Friday of what just transpired last night. All our focus was on the potential cold coming down in one shot or multiple shots(WX-South"dumbelling"). Fast Forward today and look what just happened last night. Next 7 days here in NC will be the coldest stretch we have had in over 2 years. -14 850's Tues/Wed. and 0z Euro sends another big shot right back in here next weekend. I'll have to check 12z in a minute. Point is most of the winter weather we get here doesn't pop up on the radar so to speak until within 5-7 days if that. I still think their will be a couple more shots at mischief before things shut down mid March for good. Doesn't mean it wont be another swing in miss or something historic. If you divide this met winter in 2 halves (12/1- 1/15)  v/s (1/16-3/1) it will be the tale of 2 halves. So far the second half has got underway to a pretty good start. I know we annalyze everything as one lump sum season or break it down into 3 months. Last winter minus the one Feb event, both halves equally stunk IMBY.

[burgertime]

Euro is cold and dry for it's run...but man is it cold for us in NC in the LR.

[NCSNOW]

Euro is cold and dry for it's run...but man is it cold for us in NC in the LR.

 

Hope you don't get the blues after last night. We really appreciate you pbp and euro info. Many thanks

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I will be interested to see if there has ever been two back to back winters as warm as last winter and this winter.

[tnweathernut]

I have been bullish on winter making a return from the 20th of January through much of February.  With the ensembles looking really good in the 11-15 and a couple of arctic blasts coming before then I'd say we are doing a LOT better than last year for many on this board.  The MJO is in 7 at a pretty high amplitude and forecast by some modeling to get to 8.

 

Things can (and do) pop up out of nowhere.  This system that everyone followed was not being talked about (except on here) as late as January the 14th.  Exibit A - Knoxville, TN weather forecast from the morning of Jan 14th.

 

Mostly sunny skies should return Thursday with a high of 49 in Knoxville, and an overnight low near 30.

Friday will be mostly sunny, with a high near 48 and an evening low around 31.

 

They ended up having thundersnow and several hours of thundersnow!  Keep the faith guys/gals!

[Southern Track]

Hope you don't get the blues after last night. We really appreciate you pbp and euro info. Many thanks

Same here. Thanks for all the PBP Burger. You should change your handle to Refresh. Haha

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Still no sign of any real cold weather in GA through the end of next week. Highs in the 40s a couple days, lows in the low to mid 20s a couple night. Just a few degrees below normal, which will hardly offset the 30 degrees above normal we saw recently. Usually it gets down to about 12 or 13 degrees a couple of nights every winter here. It STILL has not gotten below 30 in Atlanta and its Jan 18th !!! I'm starting to have doubts if it will even get below 30 at the Atlanta airport next week.

[GaWx]

I will be interested to see if there has ever been two back to back winters as warm as last winter and this winter.

 

1) We obviously still have no idea about Feb. 2013. So, we don't yet know how warm will be 2012-3's DJF.

 

2)  In terms of just warmest Dec./Jan. in back to back years (say Dec./Jan. averaging 49+) at KATL going back to 1879-80, the only comparable pair to 2011-2/2012-3 would be 1948-9/1949-50.

[buncombe]

Looks like gfs and euro still disagree about temps next week

[MichaelJ]

1) We obviously still have no idea about Feb. 2013. So, we don't yet know how warm will be 2012-3's DJF.

 

2)  In terms of just warmest Dec./Jan. in back to back years (say Dec./Jan. averaging 49+) at KATL going back to 1879-80, the only comparable pair to 2011-2/2012-3 would be 1948-9/1949-50.

 

In the Triad, we had 3 consecutive years of a warmer J/F than 2011-12, 2012--13. 1931-32, 32-33, 33-34 were all warmer years indivdually and of course back to back than 2011-12, 2012-13 by about 2 degrees average per year!

 

Of course the numbers could change depending on what happens the remainder of Jan. this year (probably would lower the average though, not raise it)

[GaWx]

In the Triad, we had 3 consecutive years of a warmer J/F than 2011-12, 2012--13. 1931-32, 32-33, 33-34 were all warmer years indivdually and of course back to back than 2011-12, 2012-13 by about 2 degrees average per year!

 

Of course the numbers could change depending on what happens the remainder of Jan. this year (probably would lower the average though, not raise it)

 

 Interesting. I was basing KATL's warmest on Dec./Jan. averages that were 49+ F or 5+ F above the normal of 44 F. Longterm average for 1931-2 was KATL's 3rd warmest Dec./Jan. at 51.3. 1932-3 just missed 49.0 F as it was 48.9 F. 1933-4 was slightly cooler at 48.6 F.

[pcbjr]

Looks like gfs and euro still disagree about temps next week

 

Mobile and get get models to load - please elucidate.

 

Thanks!

[DaculaWeather]

I'm liking this.... it's long so here it is: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1048 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2013VALID 12Z MON JAN 21 2013 - 12Z FRI JAN 25 2013...BITTER COLD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEWENGLAND......ARCTIC CHILL DESCENDS UPON THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...

[eyewall]

Not sure why everyone is so down on the pattern still? Besides the few days of a western trough the cold comes again.

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zensindices.html

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html

 

People are desperate to make up for the bust.

[Bevo]

People are desperate to make up for the bust the last two years.

 

That's more like it.

[strongwxnc]

Na. That is not Franklin style .

People are desperate to make up for the bust.

[Snowacane]

Who the hell knows? Apparently someone broke the sky.

 

 

Damn that was funny. . .thanks 

[DixieBlizzard]

Still no sign of any real cold weather in GA through the end of next week. Highs in the 40s a couple days, lows in the low to mid 20s a couple night. Just a few degrees below normal, which will hardly offset the 30 degrees above normal we saw recently. Usually it gets down to about 12 or 13 degrees a couple of nights every winter here. It STILL has not gotten below 30 in Atlanta and its Jan 18th !!! I'm starting to have doubts if it will even get below 30 at the Atlanta airport next week.

 

What are you basing this on?  You want to wager on temps not making it below 20F on Tuesday night? The normal for your area is highs in the 50's and lows around 34/35F.  I would say you will firmly be below normal for at least two or three days next week. Low 20's and 40's is way below normal for your location and not by just a couple of degrees either.

[Carvers Gap]

HPC Extended Forecast Discussion was interesting today....Will not post it all.  But what exactly are they looking at - just giving the pattern a look from the synoptics perspective?  Srain mentioned this on the MB....I agree, I am not sure what they are looking at...I encourage you to go and read the whole text, but this is the portion that I am curious about:

 

GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONALS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DAY 4.5 (22/00Z)
WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SLOWLY MIGRATING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO MAINE AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE 2 PIECES OF
GUIDANCE WITH THIS OVERALL AREAL SPREAD OF THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH DAY 6 IN THE MIDWEST...EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND
WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY DAY 4...THERE IS REASONABLE
EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ATOP THIS SLOPED ARCTIC
FRONT...AND BENEATH A COMPLEX 250MB JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48
HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO
SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA.
 

[DaculaWeather]

Plan of the Day

000

NOUS42 KNHC 181527

REPRPD

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1025 AM EST FRI 18 JANUARY 2013

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JANUARY 2013

WSPOD NUMBER.....12-049

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

3. REMARKS: MISSION ON TRACK 56 FOR 19/0000Z

WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED ON WSPOD 12-048.

$$

JWP

[tarheelwx]

18z gfs has a threat for next weekend.

TW

[DixieBlizzard]

HPC Extended Forecast Discussion was interesting today....Will not post it all.  But what exactly are they looking at - just giving the pattern a look from the synoptics perspective?  Srain mentioned this on the MB....I agree, I am not sure what they are looking at...I encourage you to go and read the whole text, but this is the portion that I am curious about:

 

GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONALS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DAY 4.5 (22/00Z)

WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SLOWLY MIGRATING

EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO MAINE AND NORTHERN

NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE 2 PIECES OF

GUIDANCE WITH THIS OVERALL AREAL SPREAD OF THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC

BOUNDARY THROUGH DAY 6 IN THE MIDWEST...EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND

WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE

NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY DAY 4...THERE IS REASONABLE

EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ATOP THIS SLOPED ARCTIC

FRONT...AND BENEATH A COMPLEX 250MB JET STRUCTURE EAST OF THE

MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENOUGH SUPPORT/EVIDENCE DURING THE LAST 48

HOURS TO REQUEST A SERIES OF NOAA G4 WINTER RECON FLIGHTS TO

SAMPLE THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA.

 

 

Very interesting Carver!