nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 True cold coming up for next Tuesday 22JAN13: Raysweather.com has the NW NC High Country at a high of 7 degrees on Tuesday for elevations above 5000'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Without a good strong west based NAO, the cold will want to slide east like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The high Tuesday at Snowshoe WV is zero.... according to NWS. That's Fishel cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 It is going to be rough around here for awhile following yesterday's bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 It is going to be rough around here for awhile following yesterday's bust. It's been rough around here going on two years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 It looks like the real cold shots are only going to last a couple of days and then it's back to normal. Allan Huffman wrote about a good look down the road, but of course that is a couple of weeks away and into February, so who really knows. Here is what Huffman said today in his blog. The ensemble guidance wants to pop a –EPO ridge into the Gulf of Alaska and build it into western North America as that week progresses, which should progress the trough out, and at the same time we see continued positive height anomalies over the poles (blocking). The ensembles are in pretty good agreement today that the trough will move into the Plains/Midwest by 1/29-1/30 and cover much of the eastern half of the nation by 1/31 into early February. The look of the ensembles is pretty cold late in the 11-15 day period. We see a –AO, a –NAO, and a ridge over the west coast of North America. This sets up the polar vortex over Hudson Bay and a cold pattern across much of the eastern half of the nation. This is supported by the latest CFS and ECMWF weekly forecasts which keep a cold pattern through mid-February. So perhaps there will be more snow chances for many of us in the month of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The euro is still showing cold conditions for next week with highs in the NC piedmont struggling to crack freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The euro is still showing cold conditions for next week with highs in the NC piedmont struggling to crack freezing. But doesn't that only last a couple of days before we get back to the 50s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Looking ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 There's a cold shot, it moderates for a day and then another cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 But doesn't that only last a couple of days before we get back to the 50s? So you go from below normal to normal? Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Looking ahead... We have had too much rain in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 So you go from below normal to normal? Am I missing something? We're going to have to have temps WAY below normal just to end the month anywhere close to average. Atlanta is running an incredible 10 degrees above average for the month. I'm sick and tired of every winter month being 5+ degrees above normal. It's ridiculous. I don't recall anyone predicting that Arlanta would be 5+ above normal in both Dec and Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 12z GFS does not look bad at all through near to mid-range. Looks like some opportunities might still be there to be had. , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 12z GFS does not look bad at all through near to mid-range. Looks like some opportunities might still be there to be had. , Seems like a brief warm up with the trough digging out west but it comes out quick. For us upper south folks we don't really need much below normal temps to get snow at this time of year. Just a little blocking and some southern stream systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Still think it will be highly unlikely we will see any significant frozen precipitation outside the mountains with the PNA going back negative for what looks to be the extended time frame. The -NAO will help some but a southern storm track with a -PNA is not the norm for us. Clippers coming down here are more unlikely to give us snow than the bowling ball ULL's like we just had so I wouldn't count on them either. Hate to be so negative but until the Pacific changes to create a +PNA for a couple of weeks at a time, I don't like our chances for snow but do think we will get several bouts of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Looking ahead... 6-10 period actually looks decently wet, and then on especially after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The PNA is forecasted to stay neutral to positive, so at least that's a better prog than staying negative for a long period like it did at the end of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Looking ahead... yep looks good but by the time the moisture gets here we will have warmed up most likely so all we see is rain. Go Figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Today is beautiful, sunny and warming up a little. Boy was yesterday disappointing first said asheville would get 1-3 then 3-6 and back last night said 1-2 and here in west asheville we received nothing, very disappointing. I can't figure how just west of me in Canton the ground was covered last night and east of us had snow but we just had rain. Guess it never really got cold enough in time.Lets move on to the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Looking at the 12 run of the GFS shows very little QPF over the next 10 days, with .18" for my area and that is next Saturday the 26th. Cold still looks to come in Tuesday night and keeps this area around to below 32 for 2 days. So looks dry over the next 1 1/2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 6-10 period actually looks decently wet, and then on especially after day 10. Just need the cold to come with the wet. We need the cold air to stay firmly entrenched for a while. Got to make up for yesterday and last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Looking at the 12 run of the GFS shows very little QPF over the next 10 days, with .18" for my area and that is next Saturday the 26th. Cold still looks to come in Tuesday night and keeps this area around to below 32 for 2 days. So looks dry over the next 1 1/2 weeks. It's cold and dry through next Thursday or so before another front drops down from Canada. This front won't be dry, though and could have quite a bit of moisture for the region. Mainly rain ahead of the front and maybe some switchover to snow in the mountains. Hard to say, but it's the next thing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 This is about the best we can hope for and it is as fantasy range begins. Additionally it is classic cold chasing moisture. As of now we likely have to hold on until February. I know that is not what many want to hear in looking for a make up storm but that is the way it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 We're going to have to have temps WAY below normal just to end the month anywhere close to average. Atlanta is running an incredible 10 degrees above average for the month. I'm sick and tired of every winter month being 5+ degrees above normal. It's ridiculous. I don't recall anyone predicting that Arlanta would be 5+ above normal in both Dec and Jan. I'm currently projecting KATL ends up with Jan. near 48.5 F for the month or just over 5 above average. A 50 F would have meant top 10 warmest since 1879. A 48.5 would still be the 18th warmest (~87th percentile warmwise) and barely colder than the 49.1 of 2012. So, still it looks to be a pretty soldly warm month in terms of anomalies. The most favorable warm Dec. analogs for March are actually the ones where Jan. is ~50-51 F. A 50 F is not out of the realm of possiblities but is going to be very hard to attain. However, 48.5 is not that far off and the warm Dec./high 40's Jan. analogs have had some interesting Mar.'s in their own right: very cold mid-month in 1923 and storm of the Century mid-March 1993. Also, the high 40's F Jan.'s suggest a higher than average major ZR threat for CAD areas 1/23-2/10 fwiw though still not anywhere close to being likely and not actually being predicted. Just something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 This is about the best we can hope for and it is as fantasy range begins. Additionally it is classic cold chasing moisture. As of now we likely have to hold on until February. I know that is not what many want to hear in looking for a make up storm but that is the way it is: looks like a frontal passage NEXT LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 looks like a frontal passage NEXT LOL It is. That was my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The Euro weeklies look very seasonable, no cold anomalies for the SE. I think it's the very real possibility that this winter will be very simliar to last winter, it might even be warmer, once we tally up Dec-Feb. It was funny, last week at this time when this brought up it was almost blasphemous to mention something like this as everyone was convinced the cold was coming and the SE ridge would be beaten away. Good news is that next year should be an El Nino (where have we heard that before). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 The Euro weeklies look very seasonable, no cold anomalies for the SE. I think it's the very real possibility that this winter will be very simliar to last winter, it might even be warmer, once we tally up Dec-Feb. It was funny, last week at this time when this brought up it was almost blasphemous to mention something like this as everyone was convinced the cold was coming and the SE ridge would be beaten away. Good news is that next year should be an El Nino (where have we heard that before). But the 384 GFS ensemble mean looks cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 But the 384 GFS ensemble mean looks cold. Actually we will have a couple of days next week that are below normal, but I think we will have several seasonal and a few above average days to finish out January, which I don't mind at all. I will be interested to see where this Dec/Jan ranks as far as all time warmth, I bet it's top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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