January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[toxictwister00]

Are we not going to get much cold air next week after all ? FFC has highs in the 40s for me and lows in the 20s, just slightly below normal. I thought we were going to see a major cold outbreak ?

 

GFS backed off the major arctic cold quite a bit for the SE, however the Euro is still much colder than the GFS in the long range.

[Mr Bob]

Are we not going to get much cold air next week after all ? FFC has highs in the 40s for me and lows in the 20s, just slightly below normal. I thought we were going to see a major cold outbreak ?

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders!

[Mr Bob]

While everyone continues to panic over op gfs runs. The Euro ensembles continue to have a nice pattern into Feb. -AO and  -nao centered over the Davis Straits. Winter is back sound the alarms!

Just not seeing that all that well from Day 11-15 on that run (or the previous ones)...PNA collapses and there is ample room for the SE ridge to pop up again...,

[ncwinterwxman]

Good point...though this *is* still a better look than what we were seeing earlier this winter...

Just not seeing that all that well from Day 11-15 on that run (or the previous ones)...PNA collapses and there is ample room for the SE ridge to pop up again...,

[pcbjr]

LR warming trend continues with the most recent GFS runs. :~(

[calculus1]

LR warming trend continues with the most recent GFS runs. :~(

 

I assume you are referring to the 06Z run of this morning.  It looks pretty seasonable to me.  850s below zero in NC for many frames out past 100 hours.  Plus, there are several fantasy storms that seem to arise from the south and move in a nice path along the gulf and up the coast.  Nothing explicit and potentially lots of rain as currently modeled, but there are definitely other threats in the future from that run, as I see it.

[pcbjr]

I assume you are referring to the 06Z run of this morning.  It looks pretty seasonable to me.  850s below zero in NC for many frames out past 100 hours.  Plus, there are several fantasy storms that seem to arise from the south and move in a nice path along the gulf and up the coast.  Nothing explicit and potentially lots of rain as currently modeled, but there are definitely other threats in the future from that run, as I see it.

 

Yes on 6Z.

 

It just looks like the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro nudges the SE ridge back in some and the PNA looks like it goes neutral to slightly negative and the NAO positive for a while (which some of the teleconnection models seem to be suggesting). The one contrary thing that seems to be at least possible is the MJO getting into Phase 8.

 

Seasonal - I agree. But down here, seasoal ends in about 4 - 5 weeks, so I'm really straining to find some consistent model hope.

[Southern Track]

I'm more positive about the MJO  getting into Phase 8 very soon as has been predicted.  If that's the case the Operationals should come around you would think.

[packbacker]

CFS says seasonal the rest of this month...hopefully we some flakes today/tonight as that maybe it for the year.  So much for this SSW....

 

[SnowNiner]

Yeah, if this cutoff doesn't deliver, we're going to have a long hangover. Real disappointed the ridging seems to be modeled to fade. Maybe Feb will be better, gotta keep hope alive.

[pcbjr]

Hail Mary MJO Phase 8 sustained .....

[franklin NCwx]

It's the op but -ao and west based -nao. Ensembles to follow.

[Cold Rain]

It's the op but -ao and west based -nao. Ensembles to follow.

And right on queue, there's our -PNA!!!!!!

[pcbjr]

Speaks for itself:

 

 

 

 

[ATkeL]

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders!

 

I know never to get engaged in a land war in Asia, but I had no idea they were Cicilian models.

[calculus1]

Speaks for itself:

 

GSP seems to disagree:

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC714 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPSTATE TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHPRESSURE TO PROVIDE DRIER AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THEWEEKEND. THE COLDEST WEATHER IN QUITE A WHILE MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

[GaWx]

 The model consensus is largely now saying "what do you mean we had very cold air slated to push deep down into the bulk of the SE US for a portion of late Jan.?" Sound familiar?

 

 Coldest 850 on latest GFS at KATL now only down to -7 C.What happened to all of those GFS and Euro runs showing teens below zero at 850 at KATL?  The coldest at KATL through the end of January on the latest GFS is only down to 26. Remember all of those runs that had single digits? Just a big psyche? Mirage still in full play. However, this bodes well for March's chances to be interesting.

 

 As of now, it looks like KATL will likely end the month at least ~5 degrees above normal. This is no surprise to me as the warm December analogs sugested a good chance for a mild to warm January as I stated in that thread.

 

 I'm still questioning whether or not the recent SSW is truly a major one because the peak of temperature anomalies at 10 mb was only +18 C. Compare this to some that have been +32+ C. However, I've been told that classifying it as a major doesn't depend on the actual temperatures. 

[pcbjr]

GSP seems to disagree:

THE COLDEST WEATHER IN QUITE A WHILE MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

------

 

Yes - But for 2 days perhaps?

 

PNA going - ; NAO + for a while.....

 

MJO Phase 8 is the redeamer

 

If it happens and sticks.

[tnweathernut]

There is some negativity about where the pattern is heading with some operational support for a - PNA and waning or neutral NAO. I remain optimistic and just think the models are really struggling (where have we heard that before?). The Euro and GGEM ensembles still look good and it would not surprise me a bit to have another threat to track just around the corner. Hang in there guys/gals - winter can still throw us a few bones from now through the first week of March or so.

For those of you that saw snow today, congrats! I hope you took lots of pictures and video. I hope you also got out and spent some time in it. Snow in the south is a rare bird. For those that didn't see it, keep hope and best wishes for the next storm!

[buncombe]

There is significant model disagreement in the 6-10 period.  NCEP weighted its forecast with 75% from the GFS family of models rather than the colder Euro (only 25%) in generating the forecast and those maps.  If the Euro is right, the eastern trough will stick around longer, and the forecast will be wrong. In the longer period forecast 8-14 days, the models are in better agreement, but have been very inconsistent.  

  I don't think it is as bad as it seems.  I would rather have the Euro in my corner than the GFS.

[dsaur]

 The model consensus is largely now saying "what do you mean we had very cold air slated to push deep down into the bulk of the SE US for a portion of late Jan.?" Sound familiar?

 

 Coldest 850 on latest GFS at KATL now only down to -7 C.What happened to all of those GFS and Euro runs showing teens below zero at 850 at KATL?  The coldest at KATL through the end of January on the latest GFS is only down to 26. Remember all of those runs that had single digits? Just a big psyche? Mirage still in full play. However, this bodes well for March's chances to be interesting.

 

 As of now, it looks like KATL will likely end the month at least ~5 degrees above normal. This is no surprise to me as the warm December analogs sugested a good chance for a mild to warm January as I stated in that thread.

 

 I'm still questioning whether or not the recent SSW is truly a major one because the peak of temperature anomalies at 10 mb was only +18 C. Compare this to some that have been +32+ C. However, I've been told that classifying it as a major doesn't depend on the actual temperatures. 

  I sure would like to see some freezing down to the gulf, but at least the more seasonal temps are showing up, and will feel good, after shorts weather.  That just ain't natural   At least at 37 I'm more seasonal now, and looks like tomorrow night might get below normal..after that...how can one be confident?    At least I'm still getting rain, so whenever the cold arrives, there might be a shot.  T

[Shawn]

Without a ton of scientific speak, we are approaching the Jan 20th time frame.  Although many were right about the "chance of a snow storm" around said time and it happened for some tonight, I think something much more widespread should be on the way by the middle of March.

 

Most people think that March is "too warm" etc, but it's produced some of the biggest storms in the SE especially for NC.  When you get that Southern Stream poking it's head up while the Northern Stream is still mostly dominate, you can get quite the surprise.

 

Here in South Carolina Midlands, Climatology loves gulf low track under the Florida Panhandle (further is sometimes better depending if you have cold air in place already) and ride up the coast of SC to minimize warm air advection.  Of course we sometimes still have to worry about convection to our South robbing the moisture.  With that said, I think the SC Midlands may very well see a good shot or two at Wintry weather come next month.

 

To more of a wives' tale, I can say that the warm temps have caused my Japanese Magnolia trees to blossom along with other strange plants that shouldn't be.  There has not been one time I can remember (since 1987) that something hasn't come along to kill every last one of them.  That leads me to look ahead a week or two down this way for a possible hard freeze.  I think they will be okay at 27F for a few hours tomorrow night.

 

EDIT:

One last thing.  After some of us got nothing much Wintry tonight and had the 850 0C line (blue 0 line) through or even below their area; Don't believe that stupid blue line at 850.  Although the 850 is at freezing, it doesn't mean you will get snow.  It's a good reference point to dig deeper and for many of us that really stands out tonight.  Even some of us within the 540 thickness lines within the upper level low saw nothing; Although this system was pretty darn dynamic for some.  Always check soundings and use sensible weather to determine your forecast!

[Marion_NC_WX]

I know for the heart of the southeast this upcoming shot of cold air next week may not be overly impressive but for North Carolina this will easily be the 3 coldest days of the winter coming up.

 

The arctic front slips down into my area late Monday night. The 0z GFS that's now running keeps it in the 20's in Western North Carolina on Tuesday, 33-34 on Wednesday and low 40's on Thursday, all below normal.

[Bevo]

Without a ton of scientific speak, we are approaching the Jan 20th time frame.  Although many were right about the "chance of a snow storm" around said time and it happened for some tonight, I think something much more widespread should be on the way by the middle of March.

 

Most people think that March is "too warm" etc, but it's produced some of the biggest storms in the SE especially for NC.  When you get that Southern Stream poking it's head up while the Northern Stream is still mostly dominate, you can get quite the surprise.

 

Here in South Carolina Midlands, Climatology loves gulf low track under the Florida Panhandle (further is sometimes better depending if you have cold air in place already) and ride up the coast of SC to minimize warm air advection.  Of course we sometimes still have to worry about convection to our South robbing the moisture.  With that said, I think the SC Midlands may very well see a good shot or two at Wintry weather come next month.

 

To more of a wives' tale, I can say that the warm temps have caused my Japanese Magnolia trees to blossom along with other strange plants that shouldn't be.  There has not been one time I can remember (since 1987) that something hasn't come along to kill every last one of them.  That leads me to look ahead a week or two down this way for a possible hard freeze.  I think they will be okay at 27F for a few hours tomorrow night.

 

EDIT:

One last thing.  After some of us got nothing much Wintry tonight and had the 850 0C line (blue 0 line) through or even below their area; Don't believe that stupid blue line at 850.  Although the 850 is at freezing, it doesn't mean you will get snow.  It's a good reference point to dig deeper and for many of us that really stands out tonight.  Even some of us within the 540 thickness lines within the upper level low saw nothing; Although this system was pretty darn dynamic for some.  Always check soundings and use sensible weather to determine your forecast!

 

The 850's can be cold, but your 925's can ruin your evening.

[NC_hailstorm]

GFS is wanting to push the 100hPa PV out of the Hudson Bay area around day 7 into far E.Canada and southern Greenland.That could lead to a relaxation of the cold for a while.There's also the stalled out MJO forecast in p7,it could be picking this up as well.It eventually brings the PV back and moves the MJO to p8 in la la land so we'll see if that holds.

 

Just my opinion.

[HKY_WX]

CFS looks great from week 2-4. Will be interesting to see how February unfolds.

[Shawn]

CFS looks great from week 2-4. Will be interesting to see how February unfolds.

 

Do you happen to have a good link to these? I think wxcaster took down v2, and the ones from NOAA I just looked at for Feb,March were terrible and most likely not updated.

[weatherlover]

Any news on the euro weeklies I hear they have a huge PNA reload starting first of February?

[oconeexman]

There is some negativity about where the pattern is heading with some operational support for a - PNA and waning or neutral NAO. I remain optimistic and just think the models are really struggling (where have we heard that before?). The Euryo and GGEM ensembles still look good and it would not surprise me a bit to have another threat to track just around the corner. Hang in there guys/gals - winter can still throw us a few bones from now through the first week of March or so.

For those of you that saw snow today, congrats! I hope you took lots of pictures and video. I hope you also got out and spent some time in it. Snow in the south is a rare bird. For those that didn't see it, keep hope and best wishes for the next storm!

Without a ton of scientific speak, we are approaching the Jan 20th time frame.  Although many were right about the "chance of a snow storm" around said time and it happened for some tonight, I think something much more widespread should be on the way by the middle of March.

 

Most people think that March is "too warm" etc, but it's produced some of the biggest storms in the SE especially for NC.  When you get that Southern Stream poking it's head up while the Northern Stream is still mostly dominate, you can get quite the surprise.

 

Here in South Carolina Midlands, Climatology loves gulf low track under the Florida Panhandle (further is sometimes better depending if you have cold air in place already) and ride up the coast of SC to minimize warm air advection.  Of course we sometimes still have to worry about convection to our South robbing the moisture.  With that said, I think the SC Midlands may very well see a good shot or two at Wintry weather come next month.

 

To more of a wives' tale, I can say that the warm temps have caused my Japanese Magnolia trees to blossom along with other strange plants that shouldn't be.  There has not been one time I can remember (since 1987) that something hasn't come along to kill every last one of them.  That leads me to look ahead a week or two down this way for a possible hard freeze.  I think they will be okay at 27F for a few hours tomorrow night.

 

EDIT:

One last thing.  After some of us got nothing much Wintry tonight and had the 850 0C line (blue 0 line) through or even below their area; Don't believe that stupid blue line at 850.  Although the 850 is at freezing, it doesn't mean you will get snow.  It's a good reference point to dig deeper and for many of us that really stands out tonight.  Even some of us within the 540 thickness lines within the upper level low saw nothing; Although this system was pretty darn dynamic for some.  Always check soundings and use sensible weather to determine your forecast!

You guys nailed it..forget that blue line!! I'd say parts of Tenn. are long over due more so than us in SC.

The 925 warm bubble killed the upstate once again but for me was no surprise..I think it did catch some of our Lee side brothers in NC off guard esp after they put the whole state in a warning.

Long range does not look bad to me...I don't want the brutal cold because I guarantee it will be dry..give me cold shots and gulf lows with some cad!!

[DaculaWeather]

The majority of the models are showing the MJO moving to phase 8, and possibly a moderately strong 8, in about 8-10 days, 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

 

 

As far as far as teleconnections, http://www.daculaweather.com/4_teleconnections_graphs.php the NAO has been weak and the forecast is slightly positive before heading back negative toward the end of the month. The AO, which was forecast take a dive, now appears to be on a Six Flags ride. A sharp negative dip and then possibly back up the other way. Not sure I'm buying into that part yet. 

 

The PNA takes a rise to positive territory but quickly falls back in the negative side in about 5 days. 

 

EPO... damn EPO.

 

The CFSv2 long range shows below normal for February but not as cold as before. Week 4 even shows an area below normal that looks like a CAD area,