DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks! That was the link I lost! Thank you! As far as the cold, if you're looking at those two, they're all over the place at that distance right now. Read the model diagnostic discussion and you can see what models the HPC is using and what their confidence is in them, http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_model_diag_disco.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Am I the only one that is pumped for this cold air. Snow is always a bonus for me! Bring the cold I'm with you JQ! Bring the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Am I the only one that is pumped for this cold air. Snow is always a bonus for me! Bring the cold You're absolutely not the only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This is the aftn CPC forecast for next Mon-Fri (500mb 5-day mean based on a model blend). It’s chilly obviously, with a mean Eastern U.S. trough. One of the listed analog dates, 01/09/1982, was one day prior to the 2nd coldest NFL football game ever played based on temperatures, and coldest of all-time based on wind chill values. It was dubbed the “Freezer Bowl”, and was the AFC Championship Game in Cincinnati between the Bengals and Chargers. The temperature was -9 F with a wind chill of -27 F (-59 F using the now outdated wind chill formula). Another listed analog date is 01/17/1994. Raleigh had a hi/lo temperature of 21/3 the day prior (01/16/1994). I was a student at NC State living on Brent Rd at the time, and as I recall, we lost power one of those cold nights – we were burning every damn thing we could find in the fireplace. Lastly, I looked at snowfall: For Charlotte, there was accumulating snowfall within 5 days of the listed analog date in 5 of the 10 cases. For Raleigh, there was accumulating snowfall within 6 days of the listed analog date in 7 of the 10 cases, most notably, the clipper that brought 4-7 inches of snow to the Raleigh area on 01/20/2009. It makes sense that the pattern shown would support northern stream clippers. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/809/cpc8.png/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This is the aftn CPC forecast for next Mon-Fri (500mb 5-day mean based on a model blend). It’s chilly obviously, with a mean Eastern U.S. trough. One of the listed analog dates, 01/09/1982, was one day prior to the 2nd coldest NFL football game ever played based on temperatures, and coldest of all-time based on wind chill values. It was dubbed the “Freezer Bowl”, and was the AFC Championship Game in Cincinnati between the Bengals and Chargers. The temperature was -9 F with a wind chill of -27 F (-59 F using the now outdated wind chill formula). Another listed analog date is 01/17/1994. Raleigh had a hi/lo temperature of 21/3 the day prior (01/16/1994). I was a student at NC State living on Brent Rd at the time, and as I recall, we lost power one of those cold nights – we were burning every damn thing we could find in the fireplace. Lastly, I looked at snowfall: For Charlotte, there was accumulating snowfall within 5 days of the listed analog date in 5 of the 10 cases. For Raleigh, there was accumulating snowfall within 6 days of the listed analog date in 7 of the 10 cases, most notably, the clipper that brought 4-7 inches of snow to the Raleigh area on 01/20/2009. It makes sense that the pattern shown would support northern stream clippers. I really think we're gonna get nicked by a clipper with this pattern. It's also a nice pattern for arctic front snow with any reinforcing shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ed Piotrowski shared this photo about how cold the models are for next Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lr 00z gfs was ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The mean 850 temperature across most of NC at hour 180 on the 18z GFS ensembles was -12. There was a small sliver of -15 for the northern 1/4th or so. That's an incredibly cold average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lr 00z gfs was ugly Two words...... Hiccup and truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I actually thought this was a pretty good run. Hints if split flow and -NAO towards the end of the run, no SE ridge. Yeah it wasn't frigid but it never torched either. The cold is close enough that at this range I wouldnt be too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lr 00z gfs was ugly If Goofy doesn't get the cold air into Fla. I can't believe it, especially in the long, or long, long range. The 0 line needs to be around Tallahassee for Macon to get to freezing T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD114 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013VALID 12Z SAT JAN 19 2013 - 12Z WED JAN 23 2013BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERNACROSS THE CONUS MAY START TO BREAK DOWN. THE UPPER VORTEX OVERHUDSON BAY IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH ALLOWSNORTHERN ENERGY TO RIDE THE NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA THROUGHTHE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST... BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OFTHE WINTER TO MANY PLACES. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOODSYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AND HAVE FINALLY COME CLOSER TOGETHER ON THETIMING/DEPTH OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS EARLY NEXT WEEK. QPF POTENTIALSTILL LOOKS LIGHT OVERALL OUTSIDE THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREASINCLUDING UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lr 00z gfs was ugly I really didn't think so.....now if you want the cold air to last and last and last, then yes you are correct. But....there's lots of cold air lurking and possible waves riding along the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I really didn't think so.....now if you want the cold air to last and last and last, then yes you are correct. But....there's lots of cold air lurking and possible waves riding along the southern tier. I really didn't think so.....now if you want the cold air to last and last and last, then yes you are correct. But....there's lots of cold air lurking and possible waves riding along the southern tier. Agree. I think the overall look is a promising one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The OZ and 6Z both significantly backed off any cold way down here. Yesterday we were showing freezes. Today only a couple mid-30's. If it's a hiccup or truncation, it's infected 2 straight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Post Script to #1035 - 12Z continues the deep south lack of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z euro looks good in the lr. nice pna out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z euro looks good in the lr. nice pna out west pna yes; nao no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 While everyone continues to panic over op gfs runs. The Euro ensembles continue to have a nice pattern into Feb. -AO and -nao centered over the Davis Straits. Winter is back sound the alarms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yep...strongly agree...and note how far EAST the SE ridge is...slam out by the leeward and windward islands!!! While everyone continues to panic over op gfs runs. The Euro ensembles continue to have a nice pattern into Feb. -AO and -nao centered over the Davis Straits. Winter is back sound the alarms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Still going. FJXN20 RJTD 160500STRATALERT TOKYO 16 JAN2013 0500 UTC30-HPA ANALYSIS 1200UTC 14 JAN1. COLD MINUS 80 58N 117W, COLD MINUS 68 48N 67E, WARM MINUS 33 70N 90E, LOW 230 68N 102W, LOW 250 58N 75E, HIGH 372 62N 9W, HIGH 364 70N 170E.2. CONDITIONS AT 30-HPA HEIGHT FEILD, POLAR VOLTEX SPLIT INTO TWO NEAR NORTHERN CANADA AND OVER WESTERN SIBERIA. COLD AIR LIES OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND OVER CENTRAL ASIA. WARM AIR LIES OVER CENTRAL SIBERIA. IN THE ZONAL MEAN FIELD, EASTERLY WIND IS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE STRATOSPHERE OVER THE POLAR REGION.3. STRATALERT EXISTS. MAJOR WARMING HAS CONTINUED AT 30-HPA. TEMPERATURE OVER NORTHERN EUROPE INCREASED WITH MAXIMUM 24 DEGREES FROM 7 JAN TO 14 JAN 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yep...strongly agree...and note how far EAST the SE ridge is...slam out by the leeward and windward islands!!! CPC is not on board: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Where can I access the High-resolution NAM? I didn't want to post in the storm thread because I didn't want to clog it up. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Where can I access the High-resolution NAM? I didn't want to post in the storm thread because I didn't want to clog it up. TIA http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif I don't recommend looking if your in SC or the foothills of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif I don't recommend looking if your in SC or the foothills of NC. Thanks, I'm in the north metro area of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 CPC is not on board: 814temp.new.gif Wow, that stinks. That would make the Euro Weekiies and CFSv2 wrong I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not what CFSv2 says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 And even farther out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Lets hope CPC is drunk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Are we not going to get much cold air next week after all ? FFC has highs in the 40s for me and lows in the 20s, just slightly below normal. I thought we were going to see a major cold outbreak ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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