bingcrosbyb Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Through HR 60, NAM is a tad south of 18z location with ULL. Looks like it's going straight through north-central AL as opposed to 18z through north AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 @75 Eastern TN is getting crushed. SW NC also getting in on the action and low looks like it's heading due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This run is going to have some fun snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thanks for the update. Question..... Is it not silly to look at a potential miller a almost three weeks away??? Just seems funny to me. We cant get the next three days right lol. I was just wondering what kind of weight should we put into that. Climo, not maps. If a preponderance of things have occured in a specific time frame, under similar circumstances to present circumstances, then the balance is weighted by some percentage to maybe tip one way or the other.. I'm looking with interest at that time frame now, because I've seen Ice Cream Zen Man do his thing before, and it can instruct and amaze. Of course, it's weather, and it's weeks away....but watch anyway I feel like the Savannah snow boogie woogie might be cranking up again T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 LOL the NAM is certainly trying isn't?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 @78 WNC gets in on the action from about CLT west though CLT may be a close call. I-40 def. gets it. Good trend with the NAM by this time Wed. CLT will be the money spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This run might also have some descent snow for central NC although the SV snow maps only give snow to the mountains of NC and practically all of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 LOL the NAM is certainly trying isn't?? You said it...the NAM is worthless outside 48 hours. It looks pretty though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 LOL the NAM is certainly trying isn't??everyone is riding the nam train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 why does the nam have to come out and do that... luckily I have been through this rodeo before as have a lot of you all. Nam is all alone as it has been many times before, and lost. sure is fun to follow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 You said it...the NAM is worthless outside 48 hours. It looks pretty though.... Then it's probably better than the GFS. Check out 18z GFS @54 at 5h vs. NAM 00z @48. NAM is totally plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Oh, 00z NAM. Giving TN a foot of snow. Gotta love the NAM folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Just to clarify I don't think the NAM has the end solution down...I do however think someone will bank big in the SE with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Then it's probably better than the GFS. Check out 18z GFS @54 at 5h vs. NAM 00z @48. NAM is totally plausible. I think so too...even though it's not great this far out, it's not worthless IMO...it's a good tool for trends, precip, etc. you should just not take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Oh, 00z NAM. Giving TN a foot of snow. Gotta love the NAM folks. More conservative and pretty trustworthy SV maps give central TN around 3 with east and west TN around 1 - 2. I should say though based on just the SFC you would think someone would really lollipop and get what the clown map is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I believe that was a clipper that ended up having a low form off the coast of SC/NC. Went to bed thinking 1-2" in the foothills and woke up to 8-9" I'm pretty sure that's the same storm. Jan 23 2003. I think there is a case study on it..... Incredible liquid to snow ratios (something along the order of 49:1). It was a Lee-trough set-up from a clipper type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 A lot of fantasy with this run of the NAM but you have to like the trends vs the 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 2.00-2.50 inches of QPF in all of SE TN............................lol. Cut it in half and divide by two and maybe you'd be closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nam keeps it closed all the way to the NC coast. showing some -5C 850 temps as well, that will get it done if correct. That's a huge huge if though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Then it's probably better than the GFS. Check out 18z GFS @54 at 5h vs. NAM 00z @48. NAM is totally plausible. Not sure that's saying a whole lote, which model would you go with 84 hours out? Nam or Euro or GFS? Atleast the GFS is in the same vicinity as the Euro. I will say this, if you tone down the NAM it's probably a good solution for NC. But we will see in 3 days which model verifies closest. It's probably somewhere between GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I don't think the NAM is worthless at 54hrs, getting close to being fairly reliable. And you have to love that it keeps it potent and is trending south with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Not sure that's saying a whole lote, which model would you go with 84 hours out? Nam or Euro or GFS? Atleast the GFS is in the same vicinity as the Euro. I will say this, if you tone down the NAM it's probably a good solution for NC. But we will see in 3 days which model verifies closest. It's probably somewhere between GFS and Euro. The old golden rule was to have the Nam and Euro match up inside 84 and it was almost like money in the bank. Need the euro to get in the NAM choir tonight and pinch off and slow down some. Robert made a great point about looking at water vapor in 24 hours, we would be able to compare model initilization to what we actually would bei seeing with naked eye. The ULL should be pinching off in TX by Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Sure is an impressive southern system that is being modeled -- great run for Tennessee. Unfortunately for those of us east of the mountains, BL issues remain. It's actually in the 50s in the CLTmetro region, per the 0z NAM, when precip breaks out. Maybe a changeover at the very end, but a decent 850 mb profile is wasted by surface temps struggling to drop below 40. Waiting on the soundings, but we need to start seeing the models show SOME recognition of dynamic cooling and an infiltration of low level cold air. Pretty cool to see an 850 low pop, though -- nice trend to start just in time for our arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thanks for the update. Question..... Is it not silly to look at a potential miller a almost three weeks away??? Just seems funny to me. We cant get the next three days right lol. I was just wondering what kind of weight should we put into that. It is not silly at all. He is one of our best! His contributions are phenomenal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Not bad for the NAM. Middle TN really wins on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS is running....closed ULL over TX so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 A rare deltadog PBP? It's kind of like when Spock raises his eyebrow ... GFS is running....closed ULL over TX so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 3 Closed Contour over central LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 NAM and GFS look pretty similar with the placement at 5h. GFS might be a little stronger at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Maybe a 4th contour closed? DEF 3 at hour 60 over South Central MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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