January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[Jonesing for a chase]

Looks to me like the difference between 12z and 0z on the Euro is that the ridge up in Alaska is a little higher on the 0z, therefore a little more arctic plunge.  12z though does have the more potent wave as pointed out, so a mixed bag.  Small changes at this time make huge differences at the surface obviously.  Should hopefully be something to track atleast.

[DaculaWeather]

I think specifics are going to be pretty far off right now, I would only focus on the general pattern. I think it will be at least another week before the models begin to get a handle on the pattern change. 

[burgertime]

There are a few ENS members that slam the SE with snow mainly in SC/TN/NC from the 12z.. 

[franklin NCwx]

There are a few ENS members that slam the SE with snow mainly in SC/TN/NC from the 12z.. 

 

Are you talking about the gfs? I noticed the mean had some warm 850 temps, I bet there are a few amped solutions in there.

[beanskip]

Can someone describe what happens between hour 192 and 216 on the Euro? Looks like an apps runner, but then the low seems to be off the NC/SC coast -- some sort of Miller B hybrid?

[msuwx]

Can someone describe what happens between hour 192 and 216 on the Euro? Looks like an apps runner, but then the low seems to be off the NC/SC coast -- some sort of Miller B hybrid?

 

Not not an apps runner..... weak low just heads basically due E from E Alabama at 192 to working off the Carolina coast at 204. 

 

I always flip the 500 vort charts first when looking at a new model run, and I like the overall 500mb look off of the 12z Euro. 

 

System is far less beaten down by the polar vortex than the 0z run....

 

12z:

 

0z:

[beanskip]

Thanks - yeah, that 12z map is a bit of a hottie -- better tilt and much stronger.

 

I remember last year Robert talking about the trend to hold together the ULLs long as the models wore on -- hope that is the case this time.

 

Hard to believe cold air would be an issue with that big PV.

 

 

Not not an apps runner..... weak low just heads basically due E from E Alabama at 192 to working off the Carolina coast at 204. 

 

I always flip the 500 vort charts first when looking at a new model run, and I like the overall 500mb look off of the 12z Euro. 

 

System is far less beaten down by the polar vortex than the 0z run....

 

12z:

12z500vty_f204_bg_US.png

 

0z:

0z500vty_f204_bg_US.png

[franklin NCwx]

Not not an apps runner..... weak low just heads basically due E from E Alabama at 192 to working off the Carolina coast at 204. 

 

I always flip the 500 vort charts first when looking at a new model run, and I like the overall 500mb look off of the 12z Euro. 

 

System is far less beaten down by the polar vortex than the 0z run....

 

12z:

12z500vty_f204_bg_US.png

 

0z:

0z500vty_f204_bg_US.png

 

You can see the vortex on the 12z is much farther north and east compared to the 0z run.

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

while the SE ridge has certainly been a stalwart during the last two weeks, it was not nearly as strong or even much of a player at all prior to the last two weeks... the fast-moving pacific keeping wavelengths as short as two days apart in a W to WNW flow with hardly any west coast ridging was the problem much of December

 

the strong SE ridge is about to exit stage right

 

it's not news to anyone that higher pressure anomalies are present over the Caribbbean basically through the duration of winter and if that ridge wasn't there we would see Cuban divers for storms 75% of the time... there has to be a ridge there and their normally is, again... nothing to see here and move along

 

****************

 

as for the current arctic plunge we are focusing on... with the orientation of the PV and the associated confluence coming south on the western side of the vortex, any system cruising through the southern branch has virtually no chance at surviving

 

yeah, we will likely see some models throw us a bone or two, but focus should be paid more so to the confluence winning the battle over the southern stream... nobody wants a teaser flizzard and 1020mb low dampening out underneath the PV anyway right? ... at least I don't ... only wild-card would be if somehow the confluence takes on a slightly different orientation (flatter base)

 

the main thing is that this airmass on the 17th-19th may do some work in setting up a good 500mb flow for something the week of the 20th... this is especially valid if we can get that Greenand block to hold firm or strengthen and have the weakening vortex roll over on itself causing another piece of arctic air to push south in our direction

 

the next cold push and potential southern stream energy underneath that is what we should keep a close eye on during the week of the 20th (even then it will take precise timing, but again... preaching to the choir)

 

I try to post without a lot of fancy words like "interrelated" which I saw thrown out above... makes for easier reading

 

 

[burgertime]

Are you talking about the gfs? I noticed the mean had some warm 850 temps, I bet there are a few amped solutions in there.

 

Yea sorry the individual GFS ENS members for 12z. 

[BrierCreekWx]

while the SE ridge has certainly been a stalwart during the last two weeks, it was not nearly as strong or even much of a player at all prior to the last two weeks... the fast-moving pacific keeping wavelengths as short as two days apart in a W to WNW flow with hardly any west coast ridging was the problem much of December

 

the strong SE ridge is about to exit stage right

 

it's not news to anyone that higher pressure anomalies are present over the Caribbbean basically through the duration of winter and if that ridge wasn't there we would see Cuban divers for storms 75% of the time... there has to be a ridge there and their normally is, again... nothing to see here and move along

 

****************

 

as for the current arctic plunge we are focusing on... with the orientation of the PV and the associated confluence coming south on the western side of the vortex, any system cruising through the southern branch has virtually no chance at surviving

 

yeah, we will likely see some models throw us a bone or two, but focus should be paid more so to the confluence winning the battle over the southern stream... nobody wants a teaser flizzard and 1020mb low dampening out underneath the PV anyway right? ... at least I don't ... only wild-card would be if somehow the confluence takes on a slightly different orientation (flatter base)

 

the main thing is that this airmass on the 17th-19th may do some work in setting up a good 500mb flow for something the week of the 20th... this is especially valid if we can get that Greenand block to hold firm or strengthen and have the weakening vortex roll over on itself causing another piece of arctic air to push south in our direction

 

the next cold push and potential southern stream energy underneath that is what we should keep a close eye on during the week of the 20th (even then it will take precise timing, but again... preaching to the choir)

 

I try to post without a lot of fancy words like "interrelated" which I saw thrown out above... makes for easier reading

I pretty much disagree with every part of this post, the ridge has been a player in preventing Arctic air from moving southward several times this season. Out to 384 hours it it still present on the GFS, not sure about your reasoning or optimism to be honest.

[GaWx]

 Good news for those who like the 0Z Euro better than the 12Z for the storm modeled for 1/18-9: the 12Z Euro ensemble mean is very similar to the 0Z Euro ensemble mean.

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

I pretty much disagree with every part of this post, the ridge has been a player in preventing Arctic air from moving southward several times this season. Out to 384 hours it it still present on the GFS, not sure about your reasoning or optimism to be honest.

 

You disagree with every part of the post, yet only focus on the strong SE ridge mention?  This must mean that you agree with the rest of my post.  I won't try to expand on the fact that you are hesistant to remain optimistic about the SE ridge disapperaing, yet you mention a 384 panel...

 

Again, a strong SE ridge has not been the driving force behind our entire meteorological winter so far (Pacific was before) and our mid-late December rains are evidence to this.  Think about it, if a strong SE ridge had been there during mid-late December, all of our shortwaves (rain-makers) would have dampened out/weakened rapidly once hitting the confluence of said ridge and there would have been very little rain for many SE towns.  That's it... myth busted.  If you are arguing the fact that I stated weaker ridges are normally always present in the Caribbean (further south or out east of the Bahamas) during a northern hem. winter then I agree with you. Yet, I have a feeling you didn't read that far down or you would have understood my post.

 

The point is, it's low-hanging fruit and an easy argument to make - the notion that some sort of ridging is present down close to Cuba during winter.  Yet, that ridging has just began to dominate during the last 2 weeks (not even that - week and a half).

 

Also, you make mention of the reason arctic air hasn't flowed south.  Again, the Pacific has been the driving force until recently keeping wavelengths short (no spacing for arctic intrusion)... thus, arctic air is locked to the north.  It's just now that we are seeing a more longwave pattern evolution on forecast models within 7-days.  Any ridging south of us has had little do, until next week that is, with keeping arctic intrusions coming southeast.

 

We seemed to have hit a snag on dwelling on the past here.  For the sake of other readers and members, it's not about arguing and not about us.  I can agree to disagree with you and we'll look ahead rather than behind.

[NC_hailstorm]

Having not studied warming episodes in detail, can anyone comment on multiple warmings (in the course of a month or so) and if that is common or not so much?

 

There cannot be a SSW within 20 days of the original SSW.There can be minor warmings I believe.

[BrierCreekWx]

You disagree with every part of the post, yet only focus on the strong SE ridge mention?  This must mean that you agree with the rest of my post.  I won't try to expand on the fact that you are hesistant to remain optimistic about the SE ridge disapperaing, yet you mention a 384 panel...

 

Again, a strong SE ridge has not been the driving force behind our entire meteorological winter so far (Pacific was before) and our mid-late December rains are evidence to this.  Think about it, if a strong SE ridge had been there during mid-late December, all of our shortwaves (rain-makers) would have dampened out/weakened once hitting the confluence of said ridge and there would have been very little rain.  That's it... myth busted.  If you are arguing the fact that I stated weaker ridges are normally always present in the Caribbean (further south or out east of the Bahamas) during a northern hem. winter then I agree with you. Yet, I have a feeling you didn't read that far down or you would have understood my post.

 

The point is, it's low-hanging fruit and an easy argument to make - the notion that some sort of ridging is present down close to Cuba during winter.  Yet, that ridging has just began to dominate during the last 2 weeks (not even that - week and a half).

 

Also, you make mention of the reason arctic air hasn't flowed south.  Again, the Pacific has been the driving force until recently keeping wavelengths short (no spacing for arctic intrusion)... thus, arctic air is locked to the north.  It's just now that we are seeing a more longwave pattern evolution on forecast models within 7-days.  Any ridging south of us has had little do, until next week that is, with keeping arctic intrusions coming southeast.

 

We seemed to have hit a snag on dwelling on the past here.  For the sake of other readers and members, I can agree to disagree with you and we'll look ahead rather than behind.

You obviously have a problem analyzing the past if you think the ridge has not been a factor behind our winter warmth. Were we not dry through the first half of December, only to have a brief rainy spell? Your argument of "it's the Pacific's fault" is "low-hanging fruit" and doesn't provide any better explanation. The southeast ridge is a factor in every winter event we have in the southeast, deny it all you want. H5 ridging prevented the Polar Vortex from driving further southward on several occasions during December. 

 

Further, your point about confluence is flawed. The southeast ridge can provide a moist feed from the Atlantic and GOM, thus enhancing moisture transport into the southeast. Your reasoning is quite sketchy, to say the least.

[burgertime]

Euro EPS control run says get your sleds ready. It had an I-85 special. 

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

You obviously have a problem analyzing the past if you think the ridge has not been a factor behind our winter warmth. Were we not dry through the first half of December, only to have a brief rainy spell? Your argument of "it's the Pacific's fault" is "low-hanging fruit" and doesn't provide any better explanation. The southeast ridge is a factor in every winter event we have in the southeast, deny it all you want. H5 ridging prevented the Polar Vortex from driving further southward on several occasions during December. 

 

Further, your point about confluence is flawed. The southeast ridge can provide a moist feed from the Atlantic and GOM, thus enhancing moisture transport into the southeast. Your reasoning is quite sketchy, to say the least.

 

your argument was formerly a strong SE ridge... you have changed your argument to just "southeast ridging" (which is always present in different areas of the caribbean or bahamas during winter) ... what is your point?  as stated in the post above, my point is that a strong SE ridge (if in place) will always dominate and dampen out shortwaves trying to move over the top of them and will also totally prevent arctic intrusion, but that this "strong SE ridge" has only been a factor recently and a fast-moving Pacific has been the rule until recently

 

look at the H5 map today... the shortwave is dampening out over the top of the ridge, thus the rain is having a hard time pushing east (to my point in the last post)... that is sketchy somehow to you?

 

your arguemnt keeps changing... strong SE ridge has dominated winter... or a ridge has been present this winter?  which is it?

 

I have been advised this sort of arguing thing is your "M-O".  Again, this board isn't here for us to argue over past events, but it's hard for me to stomach exaggerations.  I will let this end here.

[tnweathernut]

I pretty much disagree with every part of this post, the ridge has been a player in preventing Arctic air from moving southward several times this season. Out to 384 hours it it still present on the GFS, not sure about your reasoning or optimism to be honest.

 

Why in the world would a anyone look to the GFS at 384 to make a point? I am not attacking here, only offering a counter opinion and wanting more of an explanation from someone with infinitely more knowledge than me.  Are you rooted against a meaningful change simply because it's been like pulling teeth for two years to get cold and the SE ridge appears to come back at 384 on the GFS?

 

The ensembles are pretty much in agreement that the SE ridge is going bye bye, that the PNA is rising, that the NAO, along with the AO is going negative and some of the coldest air on the planet is coming into southern Canada in the next week or so.   

 

Euro ensemble at Day 10 shows an alleutian low, a west coast ridge, no SE ridge and a cold vortex in SE Canada. Other than nitpicking the alignment of the trough and ridge axis, what looks even remotely similar to anything we have seen in the last two years?

 

 

[BrierCreekWx]

your argument was formerly a strong SE ridge... you have changed your argument to just "southeast ridging" (which is always present during winter) ... what is your argument?  as stated in the post above, my argument is that a strong SE ridge (if in place) will always dominate and dampen out shortwzves trying to move over the top of them

 

look at the H5 map today... the shortwave is dampening out over the top of the ridge, thus the rain is having a hard time pushing east (to my point in the last post)... that is sketchy somehow to you?

 

your arguemnt keeps changing... strong SE ridge has dominated winter... or a ridge has been present this winter?  which is it?

 

I have been advised this sort of arguing thing is your "M-O".  Again, this board isn't here for us to argue over past events, but it's hard for me to stomach exaggerations.  I will let this end here.

Congratulations! You proved my point by bringing up today's weather. Let's all go look at the H5 map and notice where the rains are located...between the H5 cutoff over Texas, and the H5 ridge out in the Atlantic. You know, the moist return flow that you claimed didn't exist, but now you've back pedaled on? The only reason we got rain the second-half of December is because the ridge relaxed some, but we were still under it's influence. The theme is that it has continued to build back, stronger than a normal winter, time and time again. 

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

Congratulations! You proved my point by bringing up today's weather. Let's all go look at the H5 map and notice where the rains are located...between the H5 cutoff over Texas, and the H5 ridge out in the Atlantic. You know, the moist return flow that you claimed didn't exist, but now you've back pedaled on? The only reason we got rain the second-half of December is because the ridge relaxed some, but we were still under it's influence. The theme is that it has continued to build back, stronger than a normal winter, time and time again. 

 

the focus of this debate is a strong SE ridge, yet you cant seem to stay task here...your argument has now migrated all over the road to different points... you enjoy making up words other people do not voice in order to try and give yourself a back-handed pat on the back?

 

the only back-pedaling is your argument of a strong SE ridge compared to your change to just "ridging"... & the fact that a strong-SE ridge has just now been present enough to thwart any cold that could move southeast... instead of your point that it has been strong all along... it has not

 

yes, the 500mb vort is dampening out... I said nothing about return flow in my earlier post which you stated I denied existed around a high.... of course there will be a nice little Brier Creek flow around a high in the Gulf of Mexico... are you reading all of what I type or making up as much as possible? 

 

it may be time to get on your alter-ego screen name and go to work backing yourself up on this argument you have made between a strong SE ridge and basic ridging which is always present, but not strong

[Cold Rain]

Euro EPS control run says get your sleds ready. It had an I-85 special.

But, but I don't live near I-85!

Anyone want to take a guess on the Euro Weeklies? I'll go. I think they will look seasonal.

WRT the SE ridge, when it is large and strong as it has been at times lately, is IT the feature that's driving the rest of the NH pattern? Or are other things in the pattern forcing/creating a strong SE ridge? I would guess that other factors have created the environment for a strong SE ridge to manifest and would be inclined to blame those things moreso than the ridge itself. I may be completely wrong about this though. Just wondering more than anything.

[GreensboroWx]

But, but I don't live near I-85!

Anyone want to take a guess on the Euro Weeklies? I'll go. I think they will look seasonal.

WRT the SE ridge, when it is large and strong as it has been at times lately, is IT the feature that's driving the rest of the NH pattern? Or are other things in the pattern forcing/creating a strong SE ridge? I would guess that other factors have created the environment for a strong SE ridge to manifest and would be inclined to blame those things moreso than the ridge itself. I may be completely wrong about this though. Just wondering more than anything.

 

I live near I-85...so there!

 

I think the "SE Ridge" thing is being well overplayed!  It's nearly ALWAY present in some form throughout winter, thus as one said, all of the systems would otherwise dive down to Cuba. There are MANY other things which contribute to the rise and fall of said ridge, like longwave lengths, etc. The ridge is playing a strong hand now, but is going to be beaten to a pulp during the next couple of weeks. 

 

I think the main reason we've haven't had a significant winter storm in the SE, as is most often the case, there hasn't been a system to phase during this fast flow. 

[packbacker]

But, but I don't live near I-85!

Anyone want to take a guess on the Euro Weeklies? I'll go. I think they will look seasonal.

WRT the SE ridge, when it is large and strong as it has been at times lately, is IT the feature that's driving the rest of the NH pattern? Or are other things in the pattern forcing/creating a strong SE ridge? I would guess that other factors have created the environment for a strong SE ridge to manifest and would be inclined to blame those things moreso than the ridge itself. I may be completely wrong about this though. Just wondering more than anything.

HAH, RDU does very well on the EPS control run, of course it's 8 days away and the control run is just one member.

[FallsLake]

But, but I don't live near I-85!

Anyone want to take a guess on the Euro Weeklies? I'll go. I think they will look seasonal.

WRT the SE ridge, when it is large and strong as it has been at times lately, is IT the feature that's driving the rest of the NH pattern? Or are other things in the pattern forcing/creating a strong SE ridge? I would guess that other factors have created the environment for a strong SE ridge to manifest and would be inclined to blame those things moreso than the ridge itself. I may be completely wrong about this though. Just wondering more than anything.

Yes you do... it's a buffer basically from upstate SC to Charlotte to the Triangle and then northward. I quess you could also include Atlanta but not sure it this look would extend that far south.

[Bevo]

Is there not a banter thread?

 

Why would this exchange be considered "banter"?

 

It's actually extremely helpful for two reasons:

 

(1) It demonstrates the fact that forecasting is not a black and white science.  Mets are responsible for interpreting what is shown - there is no way to completely remove the different perspectives from this practice.  This, in turn, is an ironic benefit.  When we start to see agreeing, solid trends coming from the interpretations of Mets who look at the data differently, wouldn't you think that those trends have more weight? (the current exchange is not necessarily an example of this, but I digress)

 

(2) Having a window into the different philosophies can help draw out an answer to the weather riddles.  If we truly want to know what has been responsible for these last two winters, we have to look at the obvious culprits first.  In the current exchange, there are two obvious issues that are in play -The Pacific and the SE Ridge.  Now that we have a place to start (which I would presume we all pretty much knew this to begin with), we can focus our research to within a specific time frame using the two features and determine exactly how each one has affected our pattern (good ole' hindsight).  Taking each issue and gleaning their specific contributions from say, November 20 to yesterday, it should be possible to come to a concise explanation as to which feature carried the most responsibility. Now you have some degree of precedent for future similar patterns.

 

A debate amongst Mets is almost always a great learning opportunity, not banter.

[DaculaWeather]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/page-15#entry1990638

[Cold Rain]

I live near I-85...so there!

I think the "SE Ridge" thing is being well overplayed! It's nearly ALWAY present in some form throughout winter, thus as one said, all of the systems would otherwise dive down to Cuba. There are MANY other things which contribute to the rise and fall of said ridge, like longwave lengths, etc. The ridge is playing a strong hand now, but is going to be beaten to a pulp during the next couple of weeks.

I think the main reason we've haven't had a significant winter storm in the SE, as is most often the case, there hasn't been a system to phase during this fast flow.

So how does it feel knowing the 200 hour jackpot will never, ever verify?! . I'll post a picture of my snow though when the jackpot shifts east to Raleigh.

I think you're spot on about the fast flow. It's hard to get cold air in with a fast flow and like you pointed out, it's hard to get phasing down here. The Pacific has just been abysmal, like my Str8Cashhomey pointed out. What a train wreck so far. I'm encouraged by what I've seen over the last couple of days though.

[metalicwx366]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/page-15#entry1990638

 

Reading that thread is like trying to read something in another language.

[WilkesboroDude]

A debate amongst Mets is almost always a great learning opportunity, not banter.

 

Yes. I hate one sided Met agreements on everything about winter. I want to hear everything. There is so much on the table to deal with both are right and wrong in their own ways.

[Cold Rain]

HAH, RDU does very well on the EPS control run, of course it's 8 days away and the control run is just one member.

Awesome! Isn't it so much more fun when there are at least some possibilities on the table? And, Brick, it's inside of 10 days! I'm waiting to see what Fishel decides to tweet next...