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January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

New Euro weeklies for SE US (issued 1/14/13) (weeks are same as those of Thu 1/10 release): fourth good run in row

 

- Summary: overall still pretty good news with week 4 (2/4-10) looking like most interesting potential for Miller A winter storm

 

- Weeks 2-4 all keep the impressive -AO/-NAO though not quite as impressive as Thu run

 

- Weeks 2-4 pretty much keep the +PNA once again

 

- Two meter temp.'s:

-week 2 (1/21-7) solidly colder than normal vs. slightly colder normal in Thu run; makes sense as medium range models have gotten cooler overall

-week 3 (1/28-2/3) near normal temp.'s vs. colder than normal of Thu run

-week 4 (2/4-10) remains colder than normal

 

- Precip.:

-week 2 (1/21-7) quite dry vs. somewhat dry in Thu run

-week 3 (1/28-2/3) still near normal precip.

-week 4 (2/4-10) still near normal precip; more importantly, a suggestion of a Miller A storm track with slight wet anomalies going NEward from N FL pen. to offshore in the Atlantic. Based on rainfall distribution, some suggestion the possible Miller A is toward the middle of that week (~2/6-8). Should there actually be a Miller A then, that together with the forecasted colder than normal temperatures across the SE US could make for a winter storm for many in the SE ~2/6-8 including POSSIBLY some folks pretty close to the SE coast. Fwiw, longterm climo (going back 200+ years) appears to support a bit of a peak in Feb. for quite far south tracking Miller A's.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

Understanding everyone north of me is in ice/flake mode, could I pose a question about my "lower back 40 acres" deep SE location?

 

Specifically, the models are not showing any sort of cold air getting into N. Fla. At all. Transient or otherwise.

 

What is the reason? We have the SE ridge getting shunted, a +PNA shown, generally a -NAO, a deep trough, MJO going into 7, 8 ....  Usually that means cool days and lots of minor freezes down here.

 

What is the "block" to cool/cold air getting into N. Fla (and SE GA)?

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Understanding everyone north of me is in ice/flake mode, could I pose a question about my "lower back 40 acres" deep SE location?

 

Specifically, the models are not showing any sort of cold air getting into N. Fla. At all. Transient or otherwise.

 

What is the reason? We have the SE ridge getting shunted, a +PNA shown, generally a -NAO, a deep trough, MJO going into 7, 8 ....  Usually that means cool days and lots of minor freezes down here.

 

What is the "block" to cool/cold air getting into N. Fla (and SE GA)?

 

At the end of the Euro it does sneak some freezing sfc temps close to Gainsville. If it gets that close I would that it probably would send some cold air into N. Fla. Andy on here has mentioned that a lot of times the models can have trouble with the thickness of the cold air...so it could seep down if it's close. As for the block I think it's just the PV not pushing south enough to really get it down there.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

At the end of the Euro it does sneak some freezing sfc temps close to Gainsville. If it gets that close I would that it probably would send some cold air into N. Fla. Andy on here has mentioned that a lot of times the models can have trouble with the thickness of the cold air...so it could seep down if it's close. As for the block I think it's just the PV not pushing south enough to really get it down there.

Thanks!

 

Even last "winter" (which wasn't) we were colder than this. On a typical winter here, we burn a good bit of firewood. Occasionally get a flake or a zr.

 

I study weather hard. I just can't figure out why, with what is on the table, the models are consistently skipping just north of here. It's almost zonal anywhere north of central GA.

 

Looking for a teleconnection or other scientific reason to explain it.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Thanks!

 

Even last "winter" (which wasn't) we were colder than this. On a typical winter here, we burn a good bit of firewood. Occasionally get a flake or a zr.

 

I study weather hard. I just can't figure out why, with what is on the table, the models are consistently skipping just north of here. It's almost zonal anywhere north of central GA.

 

Looking for a teleconnection or other scientific reason to explain it.

 

Interestingly enough Robert actually covers your exact question in his latest post on Wxsouth.com he says it's due to tight packing of the isotherms and thickness. 

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bhamwx205

bhamwx205

Posted
Posted

New Euro weeklies for SE US (issued 1/14/13) (weeks are same as those of Thu 1/10 release): fourth good run in row

- Summary: overall still pretty good news with week 4 (2/4-10) looking like most interesting potential for Miller A winter storm

- Weeks 2-4 all keep the impressive -AO/-NAO though not quite as impressive as Thu run

- Weeks 2-4 pretty much keep the +PNA once again

- Two meter temp.'s:

-week 2 (1/21-7) solidly colder than normal vs. slightly colder normal in Thu run; makes sense as medium range models have gotten cooler overall

-week 3 (1/28-2/3) near normal temp.'s vs. colder than normal of Thu run

-week 4 (2/4-10) remains colder than normal

- Precip.:

-week 2 (1/21-7) quite dry vs. somewhat dry in Thu run

-week 3 (1/28-2/3) still near normal precip.

-week 4 (2/4-10) still near normal precip; more importantly, a suggestion of a Miller A storm track with slight wet anomalies going NEward from N FL pen. to offshore in the Atlantic. Based on rainfall distribution, some suggestion the possible Miller A is toward the middle of that week (~2/6-8). Should there actually be a Miller A then, that together with the forecasted colder than normal temperatures across the SE US could make for a winter storm for many in the SE ~2/6-8 including POSSIBLY some folks pretty close to the SE coast. Fwiw, longterm climo (going back 200+ years) appears to support a bit of a peak in Feb. for quite far south tracking Miller A's.

Thanks for the update. Question..... Is it not silly to look at a potential miller a almost three weeks away??? Just seems funny to me. We cant get the next three days right lol. I was just wondering what kind of weight should we put into that.
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DixieBlizzard

DixieBlizzard

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the update. Question..... Is it not silly to look at a potential miller a almost three weeks away??? Just seems funny to me. We cant get the next three days right lol. I was just wondering what kind of weight should we put into that.

 

Larry is speculating on pattern recognition in the longer range. Is he saying conclusively there will be a Miller A system during that time frame? Nope. He is saying, based on his understanding of climatology and statistics that that period remains favorable. What's funny about that? You may put as much weight into his observations that you desire, I suppose.

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

The 18Z GFS keeps the rain train mainly to the west of the Apps until you reach northern NC and up into VA.  Not too much precip is likely to break across the spine of the Apps.  But for those of you currently getting rain, it's going to continue to rain for quite some time.  Impressive totals on tap.

 

IIwgL.gif

 

Nearly 4 inches right on top of us. Looks like my indoor plants will get some fresh rain over the next day or so.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the update. Question..... Is not a silly to look a potential miller a almost three weeks away??? Just seems funny to me. We cant get the next three days right lol. I was just wondering what kind of weight should we put into that.

 

1) What's funny and silly about posting what I did in a forecast discussion thread? Obviously very little weight can be put on any details that far out. However, it is what the model is suggesting. The overall pattern being suggested is more useful...a pattern that just MAY be conducive to a Miller A winter storm in early Feb. The goal of my post is to post the Euro weekly data (due to requests) in enough detail to make it useful. I'm just quoting model data as well as interpreting the overall patterns/indices based on my knowledge. People want to know temp.'s and precip. for the SE US. I could have just said that week #4 is showing below normal temp.'s and near normal precip., similar to what I do for most weeks. However, I thought it would be appreciated by some if I also noted that there are wet anomalies during week #4 not too far to our S and E, thus suggesting a storm track to our SE (which is consistent with a Miller A track). The idea is that IF week #4 happens to be somewhat reflecting the actual pattern to be for early Feb. (impressive -AO/-NAO; +PNA; cold SE; possible far south storm track), we should consider the realisitic chance for a significant Miller A winter storm then, especially since it wouldn't at all be unusual in Feb. based on climo. I'm utilizing my knowledge of historical patterns and climo here.

 

2) Greg, thanks for explaining it well!

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bhamwx205

bhamwx205

Posted
Posted

1) What's funny and silly about posting what I did in a forecast discussion thread? Obviously very little weight can be put on any details that far out. However, it is what the model is suggesting. The overall pattern being suggested is more useful...a pattern that just MAY be conducive to a Miller A winter storm in early Feb. The goal of my post is to post the Euro weekly data (due to requests) in enough detail to make it useful. I'm just quoting model data as well as interpreting the overall patterns/indices based on my knowledge. People want to know temp.'s and precip. for the SE US. I could have just said that week #4 is showing below normal temp.'s and near normal precip., similar to what I do for most weeks. However, I thought it would be appreciated by some if I also noted that there are wet anomalies during week #4 not too far to our S and E, thus suggesting a storm track to our SE (which is consistent with a Miller A track). The idea is that IF week #4 happens to be somewhat reflecting the actual pattern to be for early Feb. (impressive -AO/-NAO; +PNA; cold SE; possible far south storm track), we should consider the realisitic chance for a significant Miller A winter storm then, especially since it wouldn't at all be unusual in Feb. based on climo. I'm utilizing my knowledge of historical patterns and climo here.

2) Greg, thanks for explaining it well!

Larry,

Maybe I used the wrong words. I was not making fun of what you said at all. I know nothing about the weeklies I was trying to grasp how much weight to put into them. my comment was obviously taken the wrong wrong. next time ill phrase it better. Thank you for the explination

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AirNelson39

AirNelson39

Posted
Posted

I believe that was a clipper that ended up having a low form off the coast of SC/NC. Went to bed thinking 1-2" in the foothills and woke up to 8-9" I'm pretty sure that's the same storm.

;)

I think those of us who have been around a long time will never forget that event. We all thought it had a chance of busting on the positive side but that was just 2, maybe 3 inches. 10" and a couple of hours of thundersnow later..

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Larry,

Maybe I used the wrong words. I was not making fun of what you said at all. I know nothing about the weeklies I was trying to grasp how much weight to put into them. my comment was obviously taken the wrong wrong. next time ill phrase it better. Thank you for the explination

 

 You're welcome. I guess we're all cool now that we're on the same wavelength (I think).

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

so even though the potential has been there and again we get a little excited and now looks like we're be lucky to get anything, its been the same old same old all winter something looks good and then when it gets to be game time it doesn't pan out.  no snow no cold  i think threading a needle is one thing but this is ridiculous.  why is it so hard to get a decent snow storm .  I grew up here and we use to have snow all the time in the mtns of nc. back in the 60's 70's, and 80's.  What has happened.

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ncwinterwxman

ncwinterwxman

Posted
Posted

Give Al Gore a call...he might be able to answer your question... :ee:  Hockey sticks and all aside, I think clearly SOMETHING is going on but that is another topic for another day and another thread...

so even though the potential has been there and again we get a little excited and now looks like we're be lucky to get anything, its been the same old same old all winter something looks good and then when it gets to be game time it doesn't pan out.  no snow no cold  i think threading a needle is one thing but this is ridiculous.  why is it so hard to get a decent snow storm .  I grew up here and we use to have snow all the time in the mtns of nc. back in the 60's 70's, and 80's.  What has happened.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

so even though the potential has been there and again we get a little excited and now looks like we're be lucky to get anything, its been the same old same old all winter something looks good and then when it gets to be game time it doesn't pan out.  no snow no cold  i think threading a needle is one thing but this is ridiculous.  why is it so hard to get a decent snow storm .  I grew up here and we use to have snow all the time in the mtns of nc. back in the 60's 70's, and 80's.  What has happened.

I feel your pain, as i'm sure others do as well. Tomorrow is basically the halfway point of met winter and it's been blah at best minus a few upslope events. We have only had one minor synoptic winter weather event in the past winter and a half and that was last February which left several shutout with nada the whole season. It's time for a rubber-band theory snap back in the other direction. Atleast we have decent looking potential heading into the back half of this winter, which is a 100 x's better than the view we had at this time last year. I do miss the average 8.9 inches and aveage D/J/F temps. Synoptic snows are always a tight rope in NC even in a good pattern.

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MichaelJ

MichaelJ

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Posted

so even though the potential has been there and again we get a little excited and now looks like we're be lucky to get anything, its been the same old same old all winter something looks good and then when it gets to be game time it doesn't pan out.  no snow no cold  i think threading a needle is one thing but this is ridiculous.  why is it so hard to get a decent snow storm .  I grew up here and we use to have snow all the time in the mtns of nc. back in the 60's 70's, and 80's.  What has happened.

This is the kind of regime we see in a cold PDO and warm AMO, much like the 50's. When the AMO goes cold in 4-5 years (and the PDO will still be cold) then the pattern will change to one similar to the 1960's. Each flip of the Oscillations brings something different to the weather patterns and should be used as a general guide but individual years will still vary quite a bit depending on other indices  like the NAO, AO, and PNA. Good example in the 1950 is the non winters on 51-52-52-53 and then the cold winter's of 57-58 and 58-59

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