burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 lol NAM takes an abrupt turn north in AL and starts heading for TN...this thing is potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Given the GFS and Euro it's hard to buy that hard turn to the north. It's a positive sign though that NAM is slowing inching south and stronger with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 NAM :rainstorm: Somebody hit me up with the emoticon for that little dude pointing at the map with rain on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 lol NAM takes an abrupt turn north in AL and starts heading for TN...this thing is potent. Still three contour at hr 72, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 And of course, folks out west yet again have a better chance of snow than we do. Is it the southeast ridge that is making it so hard for us to get wintry precip compared to places like MS, LA, TX ? Probability comparisons are irrelevant when comparing TX to NC. Areas west will have higher chance since the storm comes through there first with that type of map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 NAM :rainstorm: Somebody hit me up with the emoticon for that little dude pointing at the map with rain on it! If it keeps it's bearings straight and stays south I think we would be in the money...it needs to make that turn north around GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 NAM :rainstorm: Somebody hit me up with the emoticon for that little dude pointing at the map with rain on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Still three contour at hr 72, interesting I thought it might take a more easterly north turn but instead it just goes north and kind of stalls out....NAM being the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Has anybody looked at the Euro Ensembles? Burger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Has anybody looked at the Euro Ensembles? Burger? EPS control run which I have access to appears to be rolling now. It usually doesn't come out until around 4 - 4:15....weeklies control run is usually around 4:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I thought it might take a more easterly north turn but instead it just goes north and kind of stalls out....NAM being the NAM. Does the Nam have a bias of over-playing these contoured lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 EPS control run which I have access to appears to be rolling now. It usually doesn't come out until around 4 - 4:15....weeklies control run is usually around 4:30 Gotcha. Thanks for all of the play-by-play that you do. Let the record show that the first BOOM of the year happened during yesterdays 12z Euro run. Hopefully there are plenty more to follow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro EPS control run looks a lot like the OP. Basically just "Meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Does the Nam have a bias of over-playing these contoured lows? It has a bias of overplaying everything past 48 hours. Every time I've tracked one they go all over the map and you don't know where it's going until about a day before. One thing needs to be remembered especially with this. Everything has to pretty much go right. Little to no wiggle room for variance. As Matty East has pointed out a few times little changes cause major differences in outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Thanks! The 84 hour nam serves little purpose other than to allow one to try out various emoticons. I'd feel a lot better if the northern stream was such that strong, cold HP was working in, but that doesn't really appear to be happening here, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I can't recall ever getting any snow of any consequence from a clipper in north GA. Maybe it's just my poor memory and someone will correct me. I've seen clipper perform decent in TN and NC though many times. LOL...I will be rooting for that one for sure. We got 1.5" in 1999 from one and 1" in 2003 from another in Cherokee County. Other than that nothing of consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Clippers suck. Correct me if I am wrong, but that snow is DRY. I have see many 1-3 inch clippers...sometimes its limited to a strip of counties. Probably more rare in Georgia if that was the original question...much more favorable in northern NC but does sometimes miss south into NWS Greenville area. That is correct. Because of the usual NW flow GA is left out of any accumulation unless in the mountains or far NW counties usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Does the Nam have a bias of over-playing these contoured lows? List of reported model bias http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Clippers suck. Correct me if I am wrong, but that snow is DRY. I have see many 1-3 inch clippers...sometimes its limited to a strip of counties. Probably more rare in Georgia if that was the original question...much more favorable in northern NC but does sometimes miss south into NWS Greenville area. Are you not old enough to remember 1/23/03? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Are you not old enough to remember 1/23/03? LOL!!!! I have a hard time remembering yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 LOL!!!! I have a hard time remembering yesterday! I think those of us who have been around a long time will never forget that event. We all thought it had a chance of busting on the positive side but that was just 2, maybe 3 inches. 10" and a couple of hours of thundersnow later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Are you not old enough to remember 1/23/03? I'm sure most of us were out of our diaper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro ENS do not look warm through the period. I still have no ideas about any specific storm threats. But the SE ridge is on vacation with a general trough in Central/East and a ridge out West, although weakening in the mean over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro ENS do not look warm through the period. I still have no ideas about any specific storm threats. But the SE ridge is on vacation with a general trough in Central/East and a ridge out West, although weakening in the mean over time. The 45 day CFSv2 run is very very cold, has -12C 2m temp anomalies end of January. It's essentially cold from Jan 21-Feb 5th and than torches, but the LR has been flip/flopping alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I believe the CFSv2 has a better handle on the changes than everyone else, and probably as it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 45 day CFSv2 run is very very cold, has -12C 2m temp anomalies end of January. It's essentially cold from Jan 21-Feb 5th and than torches, but the LR has been flip/flopping alot. Yeah, that sounds chilly. Can you see the precip anomalies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Can't wait to see a DGEX map. Looks like it hammers the mountains and gives the Piedmont a descent hit as well. It of course is the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yeah, that sounds chilly. Can you see the precip anomalies? No, weatherbell does snowfall estimate thing, which is worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 From the NWS Raleigh Afternoon Discussion (sounds about right to me): PARTIAL THICKNESSES HOVER IN THE WINTRY MIXTURE PORTION OF THENOMOGRAM -- IN THE 1305/1545 METER RANGE -- A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTHVERSUS NORTH. SINCE SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOHOLD IN THE MIDDLE 30S ON AVERAGE...MAINLY A COLD RAIN...WITH A FEWWET FLAKES OR PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET DURING THE EVENING AS THELOWER LEVELS COOL VIA SUBLIMATION/EVAPORATION...IS EXPECTED.HOWEVER...THE WINTRY MIXTURE PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM IS INDICATIVEOF CASES WHERE BOTH DEEP (NEAR) FREEZING ISOTHERMAL PROFILES AREIMPORTANT (WHICH WE WILL HAVE IN THIS CASE)...AS WELL ASPRECIPITATION RATES. THE PATTERN OF THE DEAMPLIFYING WAVE ALOFTSUGGESTS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DEFORMATIONZONE AS IT PIVOTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IF HIGHERPRECIPITATION RATES ARE INDEED REALIZED...CLOSER TO THE...AT PRESENTNORTHERN AND WET OUTLIER SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE 12Z GFS...ALIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVEFREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE FAVORABLEOVERNIGHT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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