GreensboroWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I know it's only a small chance and only for >1" but I wanted to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's starting to look like it was underplayed. Jackson was reporting freezing rain, and Vicksburg was reporting snow earlier (and now freezing rain at 31F). Memphis looks pretty rough right now as on the TDOT webcams all the bridges and overpasses are starting to ice over. There's still plenty of traffic out there but it's slowing down and dwindling. Nashville might get some freezing rain/snow/sleet in the next few hours as this slog of moisture moves north over the cold air. Yup...can see some icing on the bridges...roads look mostly wet... http://ww2.tdot.state.tn.us/tsw/smartmap.htm?city=Memphis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I will wait for tomorrows 12Z before I get excited or write it off. With this current fast flow, lots of things can change in a hurry and I think Matt has the right take here, let's wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I know it's only a small chance and only for >1" but I wanted to share. Thread worthy when you near the 80% mark...these maps are good for showing the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Not sure what year but we did have a couple minor events from clippers. Maybe Larry would know? Getting any snow from a clipper is difficult for the SE to say the least, but not unheard of. I'm not sure about N Ga but in NW NC I've seen many clippers give several inches of snow. I really depends on the strength of the vort max and its path. If you are directly underneath the system and it's strong enough, then yes, you can get accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'm new to the forums... And have enough knowledge to be a danger to myself and those around me... But I have to ask... With the models jumping around so much is there reason to be concerned that this event might be rain for the NC piedmont and SC upstate, and an Icing event for the SC and NC mountains?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'm new to the forums... And have enough knowledge to be a danger to myself and those around me... But I have to ask... With the models jumping around so much is there reason to be concerned that this event might be rain for the NC piedmont and SC upstate, and an Icing event for the SC and NC mountains?? It doesn't really look like ice is a major possibility with this system. It's more than likely either going to be rain or snow due to warm sfc temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 As for the cold, it that map of the EURO is correct, it is suppression city for most of us with little precip anywhere near us. Matter of fact if the trough comes that far East/South, Florida may get the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'm new to the forums... And have enough knowledge to be a danger to myself and those around me... But I have to ask... With the models jumping around so much is there reason to be concerned that this event might be rain for the NC piedmont and SC upstate, and an Icing event for the SC and NC mountains?? From everything I have seen, nothing suggests that the surface temperatures will be conducive of a significant icing event. Also, no strong damming high pressure to funnel down the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 NAM already looks further south and much stronger than 12z...who knows where it goes in the LR though. @54 it has a three contoured low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'm new to the forums... And have enough knowledge to be a danger to myself and those around me... But I have to ask... With the models jumping around so much is there reason to be concerned that this event might be rain for the NC piedmont and SC upstate, and an Icing event for the SC and NC mountains?? Yes. HPC snow map posted above for that reference. Here is the ice potential. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hicez_ge.01_2013011500f072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yup...can see some icing on the bridges...roads look mostly wet... http://ww2.tdot.state.tn.us/tsw/smartmap.htm?city=Memphis They probably brined them, but with temps falling in the upper 20s it may not be enough. I just wouldn't drive through Memphis right now if I could choose not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 15z sref just came in very moist for this Friday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I say it in some confidence, but not that much no. Nobody can say anything with full confidence. The problem is, the snow thing is going to have to depend on who/where/when sees the heaviest QPF. Your going to need help pulling cold air down from above. With OUT a very strong look at 500mb, this looks very unlikely to happen. (snowfall for most/many of us) If we kept that H5 look longer, ie closed with more vorticity, then yes, I could see more people getting snow out of this one. Its just my opinion and I really can't see many getting snow in this setup *as of now* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Getting any snow from a clipper is difficult for the SE to say the least, but not unheard of. I'm not sure about N Ga but in NW NC I've seen many clippers give several inches of snow. I really depends on the strength of the vort max and its path. If you are directly underneath the system and it's strong enough, then yes, you can get accumulating snow. East TN and the mountains can do well sometimes. I've seen clippers give us 1-3" in Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 NAM already looks further south and much stronger than 12z...who knows where it goes in the LR though. @54 it has a three contoured low. Maybe it's my eyesight, but it appears the NAM has failed to show the correct placement of the cold air over the Tn valley. In other words, the cold air has worked farther east than shown on the initial maps. It might be under estimating the cold air and its seepage south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Not much out of MRX with the system later this week: .(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL SHIFTEAST OF THE MRX CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILLDROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. RELEASING CUT OFF LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVESTHROUGH GA ON THURSDAY. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTH TOEXTREME SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THUESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MRX CWA. FREEZING LEVEL DROPS THU NIGHT.PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AFTERMIDNIGHT. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING BEGINS TAKING SHAPE INTO THE OH ANDTN VALLEYS INTO NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LINGERIN THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. SON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Getting any snow from a clipper is difficult for the SE to say the least, but not unheard of. I'm not sure about N Ga but in NW NC I've seen many clippers give several inches of snow. I really depends on the strength of the vort max and its path. If you are directly underneath the system and it's strong enough, then yes, you can get accumulating snow. Yeah we rarely get anything but flurries from clippers so it is rare for here. I have seen it happen before where one produced a couple inches when we had a good arctic outbreak in the 80s I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 We need to keep rooting for the NAM trends. It's slowly going more south and keeping that energy stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Maybe it's my eyesight, but it appears the NAM has failed to show the correct placement of the cold air over the Tn valley. In other words, the cold air has worked farther east than shown on the initial maps. It might be under estimating the cold air and its seepage south and east. I guess that would allow that energy in Texas to be less dampened if it's underestimating the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 We need to keep rooting for the NAM trends. It's slowly going more south and keeping that energy stronger. The nam at 60 hours is about to go nuts with the qpf. looks like its about to go - tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yeah we rarely get anything but flurries from clippers so it is rare for here. I have seen it happen before where one produced a couple inches when we had a good arctic outbreak in the 80s I believe. I've seen a couple of good events with Clippers in the Upstate of SC. They just ride that cold, dry boundary and we squeeze a couple of very dry, powdery inches. You get good ratios because its so darn cold and it sticks in contact. Moisture is always limited though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I know it's only a small chance and only for >1" but I wanted to share. And of course, folks out west yet again have a better chance of snow than we do. Is it the southeast ridge that is making it so hard for us to get wintry precip compared to places like MS, LA, TX ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 NAM is really amped up. It's getting out there in lala land but this run looks to be a winner for some parts of GA...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 New CVS2 for February 2013: I like the looks of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's the nam but....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'm new to the forums... And have enough knowledge to be a danger to myself and those around me... But I have to ask... With the models jumping around so much is there reason to be concerned that this event might be rain for the NC piedmont and SC upstate, and an Icing event for the SC and NC mountains?? Yes. HPC snow map posted above for that reference. Here is the ice potential. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hicez_ge.01_2013011500f072.gif[/quot Thanks everyone... With 23 years living in Saluda NC I've always listened to the old timers and paid attention to the signs... Animals panicked getting food stores and the like... Not very scientific but for the most part correct... The activity the past week or so tells me either one heck of an ice storm or cold we haven't seen in years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Clippers suck. Correct me if I am wrong, but that snow is DRY. I have see many 1-3 inch clippers...sometimes its limited to a strip of counties. Probably more rare in Georgia if that was the original question...much more favorable in northern NC but does sometimes miss south into NWS Greenville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 And of course, folks out west yet again have a better chance of snow than we do. Is it the southeast ridge that is making it so hard for us to get wintry precip compared to places like MS, LA, TX ? Yeah, it's getting absurd now how states in the deep south are getting more wintry events than NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 A 3 contour in east TX and/or west LA at 66 looks good for someone in the coming frame or two............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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