burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 @96 bulk of the moisture is from CLT south. Not really sure if it's cold enough for anyone outside of the core of that low. Soundings should be interesting for folks just north of ATL and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Great run, if that ticks a hair NW, it's just like the 0z. The nice thing to see was the low staying closed longer than the 0z run, hopefully that keeps trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Great run, if that ticks a hair NW, it's just like the 0z. The nice thing to see was the low staying closed longer than the 0z run, hopefully that keeps trending that way. I can already tell this is going to be one of those that comes down to the line with someone just 20 miles in either direction cashing in while someone is left holding the bag with a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Seems clear the Southern s/w is going to hold together long enough to bring some solid precip -- now it's going come down to "nose-pressed-up-against-the-window" white knuckler on BL temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I can already tell this is going to be one of those that comes down to the line with someone just 20 miles in either direction cashing in while someone is left holding the bag with a cold rain. Agree, the best thing about that run is the vort staying closed for much longer, hopefully that holds and gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Some good things as far as strength and track on the 12z gfs but I just think temps are going to be an issue. 850's are decent but sfc temps are terrible. I know, too early to pay attention to 2m temps but we need to start seeing some trends to colder sfc. temps if this is going to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I like the look better as far as sfc temps potentially trending colder. Some hints of HP trying to build in over the midwest beforehand. Would love to see this cutoff trend stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Here's the snowfall on the 12Z GFS through 96 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Decent run for sure. and definitely keeps the vort max going longer. No closed contours at 500mb but the upper wave passes through SC. The issue is the cold air and if it can drain in enough, and in time. We will be riding the line without question. A key to watch is the transient high as it moves through NY and off shore. That is our source for a hybrid transitioning to an in-situ CAD. Notice the 850 line begins to retreat a bit in the model as precip begins to exit. I guess the good news there is the GFS can weaken CAD too quickly. Watch the track of course of the 850 and 700mb lows/waves as well. As of now they seem to track through the NC/SC border region on this run (maybe more northern SC). The problem is they are weakening as they go just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 We need the ULL to trend stronger in the upcoming runs. All of the snowfall maps are a little overdone I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Would like to see HP trend stronger, but decent run fo sho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 How does that map look for the upstate of South Carolina? It's not bad as that weak 850 low goes over. Of course just based solely on surface maps it's still borderline. This is a classic "wait and see" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 How does that map look for the upstate of South Carolina? If you click on the map, it will show you the entire US. I can't see any of the East Coast states until I click on the map. Should work for you also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 How does that map look for the upstate of South Carolina? I believe that map - although likely way overdone - correlates with what eyewall just explained. If I were to call any snow for SC, in my opinion it would only be the northern upstate (if SC is truly situated correctly in the first place). Northern upstate in this case really only being northern Oconee, Pickens and possibly Greenville counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Brad Panovich just posted this image over on his FB page.. http://sphotos-d.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/736523_432407170165078_1694829192_o.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Burger, and others, it looks too warm at all levels *from the BL to 850* I say this is an ALL rain event E of the MS river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Burger, and others, it looks too warm at all levels *from the BL to 850* I say this is an ALL rain event E of the MS river That's probably the safer bet. I'm still gonna be though and hope for the best. Anyone see any soundings to back up if there is any snow falling in GA? I'm curious about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Completely disagree with Brad there. Temps in the mid to upper 30's and 850's that are above 0c are not going to get 1-2" of snow on the ground. Now, there is a little bit of room for some dynamic and evap cooling, but its not much, and will be HIGHLY localized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 My thoughts right now would be a 1" pasting at most (most likely less) for the Piedmont/Triad of NC with perhaps a little over that in the 1-2" range for CLT and areas just to the north if this run were to prove mostly accurate. I would expect more in the way rain/sleet south of RDU through the Sandhills and mostly rain south and east of there. We have those pesky soil temps to contend with as well (yes I said it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Its going to be a close call for snow/rain Thursday nights. Many factors come into play including strength of low, track, and BL conditions. Upper levels are looking good but the BL may be an issue. Arctic blast ready to invade after the low exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=33.7243&sounding.lon=-84.4189&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=12&fhour=84¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y Thats 00z Friday for ATL *or near there* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 STRONGLY agree...outside of a few inches in the mountains, this will likely be a non-event IMO...that's why I haven't really said anything about it... Regarding the cold shot this weekend into next week, it is looking more and more like a transient shot of cold air before a more sustained period of cold comes in by early February... Burger, and others, it looks too warm at all levels *from the BL to 850* I say this is an ALL rain event E of the MS river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Its going to be a close call for snow/rain Thursday nights. Many factors come into play including strength of low, track, and BL conditions. Upper levels are looking good but the BL may be an issue. Arctic blast ready to invade after the low exits. Northern stream taking over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Its going to be a close call for snow/rain Thursday nights. Many factors come into play including strength of low, track, and BL conditions. Upper levels are looking good but the BL may be an issue. Arctic blast ready to invade after the low exits. Just about to say the latter. Cold air is coming in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Brad Panovich just posted this image over on his FB page.. http://sphotos-d.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/736523_432407170165078_1694829192_o.jpg Allan's map has those darker areas as 3", as well as some on wxcaster...just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 At 180, that Arctic high is so pretty sitting up in just a PERFECT location for a huge SE snowstorm. But there is absolutely no southern stream energy to be found anywhere. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Burger, and others, it looks too warm at all levels *from the BL to 850* I say this is an ALL rain event E of the MS river Here's HKY at 12Z Friday (~7 AM): Date: 4 day AVN valid 12Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: KHKYLatitude: 35.73Longitude: -81.38-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 222 SFC 977 411 1.9 -0.7 83 2.6 0.8 25 7 276.9 277.5 275.2 287.1 3.71 2 950 637 2.0 -4.0 65 5.9 -0.4 39 15 279.2 279.7 275.4 287.6 3.00 3 900 1071 -1.0 -5.2 73 4.2 -2.6 47 18 280.5 281.0 275.9 288.6 2.89 4 850 1526 -1.5 -6.3 70 4.7 -3.3 53 16 284.6 285.0 278.0 292.6 2.81 5 800 2010 -0.8 -5.5 71 4.7 -2.7 61 10 290.3 290.8 281.1 299.5 3.16 6 750 2525 -1.4 -3.8 84 2.4 -2.4 75 3 295.1 295.8 284.0 306.5 3.85 7 700 3074 -2.9 -4.5 89 1.6 -3.6 50 2 299.3 300.0 285.7 311.2 3.93 8 650 3659 -5.4 -7.2 87 1.8 -6.1 75 4 302.8 303.5 286.5 313.4 3.43 9 600 4283 -8.6 -12.0 76 3.4 -9.8 55 6 306.2 306.7 286.8 314.2 2.54 10 550 4954 -11.6 -15.8 71 4.2 -13.0 352 8 310.3 310.7 287.7 316.9 2.03 11 500 5678 -16.3 -18.6 82 2.3 -17.0 285 10 313.2 313.5 288.4 319.0 1.76 12 450 6461 -23.1 -23.5 97 0.4 -23.1 243 15 314.2 314.5 288.3 318.6 1.28 13 400 7311 -29.9 -30.1 98 0.2 -29.9 198 25 316.2 316.3 288.4 318.9 0.78 14 350 8249 -36.6 -39.2 76 2.7 -36.8 231 14 319.4 319.5 289.0 320.8 0.36 15 300 9305 -41.7 -51.2 35 9.5 -42.2 282 20 326.6 326.6 290.9 327.1 0.12 16 250 10524 -48.4 -63.5 16 15.0 -48.8 263 38 334.0 334.0 292.9 334.2 0.03 17 200 11958 -58.1 -66.8 32 8.6 -58.3 259 52 340.7 340.7 294.5 340.8 0.02 18 150 13746 -62.6 -69.7 38 7.1 -62.7 254 67 362.2 362.2 299.1 362.3 0.02 19 100 16225 -65.2 -76.7 19 11.5 -65.3 259 58 401.8 401.8 305.5 401.9 0.01TRP 0 WND 0 Sounding variables and indices1000-500 mb thick: 5456.58 mFreezing level: 917.05 mb = 923.02 m = 3028.24 ftWetbulb zero: 958.50 mb = 565.11 m = 1854.03 ftPrecipitable water: 0.65 inches I think this sounding would indicate snow could make it to the ground. Wet bulb below zero all the way down to 950 mb, just above the surface. A nice grassy event perhaps, and elevated surfaces, but the BL temps could always change for the better or worse between now and then. But, the issue up here is the lack of precip on the latest run. It will all work itself out, eventually, but being further north has the upside of better temps but the downside of lower precip totals. Being further south has the opposite situation. Thread the needle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I would say maybe CLT to RDU *IMO, the only shots at snow at this point* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Snow map on SV shows nothing for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I would say maybe CLT to RDU *IMO, the only shots at snow at this point* I'd say the upstate of SC too. The sounding data for GSO looks very favorable for snow at this point! Not sure about amounts yet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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