franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yep. It's hard to put a finger on any storm threats though. Maybe there's something there after 1/20....we'll have to see how the pattern evolves. I'm not too excited about the system this week yet. That bowling ball coming through could pick up a spare for some folks, but it could just as easily be a gutter ball too. Not quite enough evidence to get totally onboard yet, but also not enough to poo poo it either. It'll be fun to see how the next couple of cycles trend. Yeah, I always figured it would be suppressed. The op models seem to be back and forth from run to run on the storm. I still think we are headed for a below normal period for at least a few weeks. The ensembles have been consistent in showing this. I am not too concerned with the +nao as the lower heights from the vortex are playing with the nao index. We are in prime climo time now so slightly below average is great for the upper south. The op models seem to take things to extremes a lot, hard to trust them beyond 100 hours. The last thing I want is a major arctic outbreak and storms too far south. Time will tell as it always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 HPC is discounting the deterministic models that far out right not because of no consistency. Models will be wrong for another week to a week and a half. I saw that Dacula, it will be interesting to see how all of this goes in the coming weeks. Any stratospheric updates for us today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 As of this morning, all levels above 30hPa are cooling again. However, the heat is propagating downward, all levels below 30 hPA are warming. All the graphs haven't updated yet. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Cold or Not Cold: Point: Euro Ensembles maintain a ridge-west/trough-east look from D5-D10. Doesn't look warm at all. Latest CFS looks C O L D too. MJO looks to go into Phase 7-8. Also, the lag for effects felt by the recent Strat warming would tilt the scale toward cold. Lastly, the latest Euro Weeklies support a colder than normal pattern (we'll see what they have to say this evening). Counter Point: Operationals show an amplified followed by zonal look. There is no real west-based -NAO showing up in the modeling. The PDO is still negative. Plus, factoring in how winter has gone so far, might give some pause for believing a sustained cool-down. I'd lean in the direction of a sustained cool period coming. But I'm a big weenie and maybe only seeing what I want to see. But even though there are no guarantees, I think the evidence points more strongly in that direction as of this morning. Good morning. The 6-10 on the ensembles looks really good for cold weather. Ridging west and troughing east. Nice looking PNA signature on the ensembles for this time period. It will be interesting to see if the ensembles are correct for the 11-15 period in breaking down the PNA rather quickly. It will also be fascinating to see how the SSW affects the modeling going forward. I am wondering if what we are seeing in the 6-10 is b/c of this warming or if it's just the appetizer before the main course. One thing is for certain..................A LOT to be ironed out over the coming 4-6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 New video from DT: You know, granted the guy is a bit of an a-hole, but I find his videos very informative and pretty funny. Thanks for posting that. I think we should all chip in and buy him a new microphone though. My ears are bleeding from all that crackling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Interesing run of the 12z NAM -- the main players now getting in its range in the 48-60 hour time period where it is more reliable. Main change from 0z to 12z run is that all the main features are slightly (but not insignificantly) further south. The SE ridge is slightly farther south, the southern 500 closed low and the push of cold air. (At least through 63 hours). Southern system might be a touch weaker as well. The 0z NAM at 75 hours had a tiny closed off 850 low, a feature not apparent on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 As of this morning, all levels above 30hPa are cooling again. However, the heat is propagating downward, all levels below 30 hPA are warming. All the graphs haven't updated yet. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_temp_time_series.php This is what makes me wonder about the relationship between SSW's and actual weather. I understood it to be that these SSW's didn't really have an affect at our latitude until the downwelling process to the lower levels occurred. I am guessing the arctic air shown with the vortex moving toward Hudson's Bay IS a part of this process, but what has come throught the plains into arkansas, tennessee, and other parts of the south is not.............. fascinating stuff and much of it we have just begun to scratch the surface about what it all means and how it affects the sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Interesing run of the 12z NAM -- the main players now getting in its range in the 48-60 hour time period where it is more reliable. Main change from 0z to 12z run is that all the main features are slightly (but not insignificantly) further south. The SE ridge is slightly farther south, the southern 500 closed low and the push of cold air. (At least through 63 hours). Southern system might be a touch weaker as well. The 0z NAM at 75 hours had a tiny closed off 850 low, a feature not apparent on the 12z run. If you extrapolate the NAM, which is always dangerous to do, it looks no bueno for areas east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The nam is north way home north with the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Then late in the run, the NAM takes a strong closed low NE -- more of a Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley/Northern Tenn. Valley hit. Becoming more apparent that SOMEBODY is going to get a big hit from this system -- but who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The rest of the graphs updated: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_strat_details.php Here, you can see the cooling above and start to see the warming below The anomalies are beginning to show below normal temps at the lower levels: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Just peaking at RaleighWX's maps, but it looks like the 12z NAM lays down about 6-7" of snow in northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas through 72 HR, but the ULL cuts north after that period.Still, a very dynamic system in place for the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The nam is north way home north with the upper low. Yes, but not compared to 0z run in the earlier hours of the run. Much more interested in trends now than what the NAM actually ends up showing at hour 84. Through 72, the 500 low was south of the 0z position at every frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 This is what makes me wonder about the relationship between SSW's and actual weather. I understood it to be that these SSW's didn't really have an affect at our latitude until the downwelling process to the lower levels occurred. I am guessing the arctic air shown with the vortex moving toward Hudson's Bay IS a part of this process, but what has come throught the plains into arkansas, tennessee, and other parts of the south is not.............. fascinating stuff and much of it we have just begun to scratch the surface about what it all means and how it affects the sensible weather. Yes, several weeks (generally 2-3) have to pass after the main warming to see changes a the surface and we are seeing the downward propagation of the temperatures. The wind reversal was the big piece we needed in order to "break" and displace the vortex, and that has happened. There have been rather large pressure changes in the upper atmosphere that will make themselves known over the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yes, but not compared to 0z run in the earlier hours of the run. Much more interested in trends now than what the NAM actually ends up showing at hour 84. Through 72, the 500 low was south of the 0z position at every frame. I'd like to see it hang back a little bit...we'd be walking a fine line then with a more suppressed solution, but we need the cold to press a bit more before the ULL comes in...otherwise, it might very well end up more north and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Then late in the run, the NAM takes a strong closed low NE -- more of a Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley/Northern Tenn. Valley hit. Becoming more apparent that SOMEBODY is going to get a big hit from this system -- but who? Thanks for the play by play. I peeked b/c I have many friends in northern middle Tennessee. Looking at 500, there would be no chance at a northern tn valleysnow hit. That baby is more of a northern arkansas, southern missouri, western Kentucky snow. All that said, it is the NAM from 72 on so......................not really worth dissecting all that much would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Thanks for the play by play. I peeked b/c I have many friends in northern middle Tennessee. Looking at 500, there would be no chance at a northern tn valleysnow hit. That baby is more of a northern arkansas, southern missouri, western Kentucky snow. All that said, it is the NAM from 72 on so......................not really worth dissecting all that much would be my guess. May just be my geographic ignorance, but I thought the Tennessee River flowed up into southwestern KY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 May just be my geographic ignorance, but I thought the Tennessee River flowed up into southwestern KY? Part of the Tennessee river is a divider between west and middle Tennessee, but it does run north into southwest Kentucky. When the term northern TN valley is used most people in middle Tennessee take that to mean the area just north, northeast, and northwest of Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I think the long range Nam is just over amping the shortwave as it often will do contributing to it being further NW than all other current guidance and is probably an outlier. Of course it could be setting up a new trend. Lets hope its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 May just be my geographic ignorance, but I thought the Tennessee River flowed up into southwestern KY? It does. Kentucky Dam is the last dam before the Ohio river where it flows into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 @66 our energy in TX is slightly south of 6z and 00z GFS looks stronger as well. It looks like it's about to head more towards a northern path though. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 12z GFS should be more like the 0z run than the 6z, it's definitely stronger at 12z, just a smidge south when compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 this might be a good run...gonna be better than the 6z that's for sure. It's colder at the surface compared to the 6z and 00z out to 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Wow this one is keeping it's strength and rolling south....GA looks to get in on the game with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Colder and farther south than the Nam at 72. Also has weak HP to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 @84 it appears to be making the turn. The low is just southeast of central AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 @87 possible snow in ATL...probably BL issues but it's gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 I think it stays south. The cold is pressing pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks like the bulk of the precip is going to be GA and SC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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