January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[HKY_WX]

GFS looks pretty good until you get down the sfc. I'm hoping with such a cold comlun, we could get some really good dynamic cooling potential in this situation. Otherwise we would burn up a lot on cooling down the sfc. But still, it drops close to 1.25 in charlotte with 850's pretty much at 0c. That's enough precip to warrant a few inches of snow at least. Basic meteorlogy though, tells you the model is probably too warm at the sfc w/ such low thickness numbers and that much QPF.

[DopplerWx]

euro at 96, 850s are cold.

[Huffwx]

It's dry-- like .10 at CLT-- nothing back towards HKY

euro at 96, 850s are cold.

[GaWx]

The 0Z Euro has no real deep plunge of Arctic air into the SE US as it has had on at least one run yesterday and it has none suggested for soon after day 10 as the pattern is suggested to become a little more zonal fwiw.

 

 Also, recent GFS runs have really reduced the magnitude of any Arctic air deep plunges into the SE US (say, below NC/TN) vs. earlier runs.

[dsaur]

The 0Z GFS does show a ZR storm for at least some of the main CAD areas of NC/SC/GA 1/25-6 fwiw, which is next to nothing. The only reason I'm mentioning it is that the warm Dec. analogs suggest a somewhat heightened risk for ZR around this time. I'm not saying the analogs say it is likely, however.

That's not a bad scenario for  us is it?  Cold lining up along a stalled boundary, and buckling from time to time, with a chance for some rain to be moving up.  Cold enough to fight the waa, but no such a hard push it drives off the rain.  I'm thinking things could begin to look interesting over time at least for some better cold, and thus better chances.  Of course, as long as I'm not in my flannel shirt, I can't get overly up for cold coming, though I've seen it several  times in normal winters. 70's today, and snow in a few more, lol.  As long as some cold hovers around to the nw there's chances.  Tony

[GaWx]

That's not a bad scenario for  us is it?  Cold lining up along a stalled boundary, and buckling from time to time, with a chance for some rain to be moving up.  Cold enough to fight the waa, but no such a hard push it drives off the rain.  I'm thinking things could begin to look interesting over time at least for some better cold, and thus better chances.  Of course, as long as I'm not in my flannel shirt, I can't get overly up for cold coming, though I've seen it several  times in normal winters. 70's today, and snow in a few more, lol.  As long as some cold hovers around to the nw there's chances.  Tony

 

Tony,

 Yes, not bad for better wintry precip. chances. However, just after becoming more optimistic, I'm now starting to get concerned again about the models pulling back on their Arctic plunges deep into the SE US vs. what they showed in recent days. I still said yesterday that I didn't have a lot of confidence in the bulk of the SE US getting a big Arctic plunge in late Jan. despite the model consensus then leaning that way because of recent experience. I'm not giving up by any means. However, I do think the chances are starting to drop again (at least for now) for late Jan. strong cold. We'll see.

[dsaur]

Tony,

 Yes, not bad for better wintry precip. chances. However, just after becoming more optimistic, I'm now starting to get concerned again about the models pulling back on their Arctic plunges deep into the SE US vs. what they showed in recent days. I still said yesterday that I didn't have a lot of confidence in the bulk of the SE US getting a big Arctic plunge in late Jan. despite the model consensus then leaning that way because of recent experience. I'm not giving up by any means. However, I do think the chances are starting to drop again (at least for now) for late Jan. strong cold. We'll see.

Sure would like to see a good strong pac ridge cement in for a while, but at least I don't think I'll be having the fan on while watching the Falcons in the Super Hype, lol.  Glad you're still providing your thoughts!!  T

[Shawn]

I think the 00z Euro will be correct with it's solution besides the most WNC area.

[DaculaWeather]

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1225 AM EST MON JAN 14 2013VALID 12Z THU JAN 17 2013 - 12Z MON JAN 21 2013THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY LOCKED IN THE SAME PATTERNFOR DAYS 3 THRU 7... WITH STRONG RIDGING CENTERED ALONG THE PAC NWCOAST AND DEEP TROUGHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THENORTHEAST. AFTER ENERGY IN THE SHORT TERM OVER THE SOUTHERNROCKIES SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BY FRI/D4... THE NORTHERNSTREAM WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER. THE MODELS ANDENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIANVORTEX CREEPING TOWARD SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WITH EMBEDDEDSHORTWAVES STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS EAST OF THEDIVIDE... BRINGING IN COLDER AIR AND LIGHT QPF WITH EACH ONE...BUT ENHANCED DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF THESEINDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS CHALLENGING BEYOND A FEW DAYS AND THEDETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTSOLUTION WITH EACH RUN. THE 18Z/13 GFS ALIGNED A BIT BETTER WITHTHE 12Z/13 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 18Z/13 GEFS MEAN FOR THE FIRSTCOUPLE DAYS OF THE FORECAST BEFORE THE 12Z/13 ECMWF CAME AROUND TOA MORE AGREEABLE FORECAST. OPTED TO SHY AWAY FROM ANY OVERLY DEEPSFC HIGH OR LOW IN LIGHT OF POOR CONTINUITY IN RECENT RUNS...WHERE THEY HAVE COME AND GONE. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINSCONSISTENT AND CORRELATES WELL WITH THE GEFS MEAN... SERVING ASTHE BASE FOR THE FORECAST.FRACASSO

[FallsLake]

RAH not excited about this Thursday. Their thinking is the storm will stay south, but if it does end up north it will be more of a mixed event with little problems. long range discussion from last night:

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT:
EXPANDING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE POLAR
VORTEX SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL
EJECT THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INVOF TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY...EXITING THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE INCREASING NORTHERN STREAM
INFLUENCE...A MORE SOUTHWARD/SUPPRESS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THICKNESSES AND
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING ALL RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. A LESS
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION WOULD BRING PRECIP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WOULD SUPPORT A BRIEF(NUISANCE-NON ADVISORY)
WINTRY MIX THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY DRYING OUT BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER FOR NOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DOMINATE VORTEX
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH DEEP NWLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
...WITH MODELS INDICATING A PLUNGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

 

[burgertime]

Probably being a little weenish here but we're within five days and the Euro/GFS are going south all of the sudden with the Canadian catching on. Sign me up. This is typical of the models. Let start trending to a more north solution by Wed. Personally I'm rooting for something like the Euro just a hair north so I like my chances. 

[DaculaWeather]

Like the HPC said, no continuity in the runs right now which is typical for a pattern change, especially a big one. I think it will be next week before we start to see a general agreement among the models. I still say the 20-24 will be when the first big push south will be. 

[nchighcountrywx]

Updated MJO Forecasts from Sunday 13JAN13

 

[DaculaWeather]

Yes, except for the Canadian, they're all headed for 8

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

[Jon]

06z GFS has the storm FWIW...low precip amounts but a good area of 1" widespread through NC with a localized area of 2"...despite the non-excitement from RAH we do have our first storm to track it seems. Lets hope this thing trends to something for some real excitement!

[FallsLake]

06z GFS has the storm FWIW...low precip amounts but a good area of 1" widespread through NC with a localized area of 2"...despite the non-excitement from RAH we do have our first storm to track it seems. Lets hope this thing trends to something for some real excitement!

Right now, I would be excited to see a snow flurry. So I say lets track this...

 

Looking ahead the 6z GFS does not show an actual storm but (to me) it looks very interesting at day 8. The next frame has a storm forming too far off the coast but this can change as we get closer.

[WilkesboroDude]

06z GFS has the storm FWIW...low precip amounts but a good area of 1" widespread through NC with a localized area of 2"...despite the non-excitement from RAH we do have our first storm to track it seems. Lets hope this thing trends to something for some real excitement!

 

6z did not add any confidence for me. No to little qpf foothills and mountains. Each run comes up different. On to 12z which I will not be here for. 

[Tacoma]

It's funny but our local guys are calling for nothing, not even a rain drop this Thursday/Friday (wjhl). Both major models show measurable precipitation. Good call guys, good call. smh.

yea its crazy with what all the models are showing even 13 wlos tv is showing partly cloudy and 46 for the mtns. of nc thursday and friday.  Talk about being on the conservative side I would think at least 30% chance of a mix.

[DaculaWeather]

You can't base a forecast off what the models are doing right now... they are all over the place. Everyone is going to play climo until a clear pattern emerges. 

[deltadog03]

The doc came in and just smashed all hopes and dreams last night. Not really cold in the mid/long range either.

[Srain]

Folks need to pay close attention to the mid week time frame. We have Winter Weather Advisories this morning for Central/E Texas as sleet has developed with the over running precip and a jet streak passing our Region. The models are converging on a much stronger short wave/closed core 5H low developing in W Texas Tuesday into Wednesday and we here to your W may see Winter Storm Watches or at least Winter Weather Advisories hoisted again with this potent upper air feature. The models are not handling this situation well at all.

[packbacker]

0z Euro Ensemble mean was wetter than the Op, still showed a lot of spread though for a 4-5 day for forecast.

[burgertime]

Folks need to pay close attention to the mid week time frame. We have Winter Weather Advisories this morning for Central/E Texas as sleet has developed with the over running precip and a jet streak passing our Region. The models are converging on a much stronger short wave/closed core 5H low developing in W Texas Tuesday into Wednesday and we here to your W may see Winter Storm Watches or at least Winter Weather Advisories hoisted again with this potent upper air feature. The models are not handling this situation well at all.

 

Thanks for the update. Always enjoy when you drop by to post. If that low can get strong enough it should look even better than what some of the models were showing earlier. We just need it to trend more west to east as opposed to west to north east. Folks out in Texas are having a great winter this year. My relatives in west TX. posted some great pictures from that last winter storm.

[NavarreDon]

GSP overnight afd:

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 2 AM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST BEGINS AT 12Z ONTHURSDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUSAND A CLOSED H5 LOW TRYING TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT APPROACHES THECAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. HOW LONG THIS H5 LOW CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF ASIT TRACKS EASTWARD REMAINS DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS POINT WITH THELONG RANGE MODELS FAILING TO BE VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. THELATEST RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE H5 WILL BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF...BUT ITDOESNT COMPLETELY GET SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN UPPER FLOW.OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARDS THE END OFTHE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VERY BROAD UPPER TROFFINGREMAINING IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.AT THE SURFACE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP A LOW OVERTHE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURS AND MOVE IT OVER THE FCST LATETHURS INTO FRI. THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCLEARAT THIS TIME WITH THE LATEST GFS RUN TAKING IT ON A MORE NLY TRACKTHAN THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE CWFA THURSAFTERNOON THRU FRI MORNING. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT WE COULD SEEFROZEN PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THEY WILL BE COLD ENUFEARLY FRI. FOR THE TIME BEING...I CAPPED POPS AT SOLID CHANCE FROMROUGHLY 18Z THURS THRU 6Z FRI UNTIL WE SEE BETTER CONSISTENCYBETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

 

Many highs & lows still to come for sure but I would advise people to go back and read post #503 in the thread.

[Nraleigh]

New video from DT:

 

[DaculaWeather]

Folks need to pay close attention to the mid week time frame. We have Winter Weather Advisories this morning for Central/E Texas as sleet has developed with the over running precip and a jet streak passing our Region. The models are converging on a much stronger short wave/closed core 5H low developing in W Texas Tuesday into Wednesday and we here to your W may see Winter Storm Watches or at least Winter Weather Advisories hoisted again with this potent upper air feature. The models are not handling this situation well at all.

 

Thanks as always Steve. I enjoy reading your thoughts. 

[Cold Rain]

Cold or Not Cold:

Point: Euro Ensembles maintain a ridge-west/trough-east look from D5-D10. Doesn't look warm at all. Latest CFS looks C O L D too. MJO looks to go into Phase 7-8. Also, the lag for effects felt by the recent Strat warming would tilt the scale toward cold. Lastly, the latest Euro Weeklies support a colder than normal pattern (we'll see what they have to say this evening).

Counter Point: Operationals show an amplified followed by zonal look. There is no real west-based -NAO showing up in the modeling. The PDO is still negative. Plus, factoring in how winter has gone so far, might give some pause for believing a sustained cool-down.

I'd lean in the direction of a sustained cool period coming. But I'm a big weenie and maybe only seeing what I want to see. But even though there are no guarantees, I think the evidence points more strongly in that direction as of this morning.

Good morning.

[franklin NCwx]

Cold or Not Cold:

Point: Euro Ensembles maintain a ridge-west/trough-east look from D5-D10. Doesn't look warm at all. Latest CFS looks C O L D too. MJO looks to go into Phase 7-8. Also, the lag for effects felt by the recent Strat warming would tilt the scale toward cold. Lastly, the latest Euro Weeklies support a colder than normal pattern (we'll see what they have to say this evening).

Counter Point: Operationals show an amplified followed by zonal look. There is no real west-based -NAO showing up in the modeling. The PDO is still negative. Plus, factoring in how winter has gone so far, might give some pause for believing a sustained cool-down.

I'd lean in the direction of a sustained cool period coming. But I'm a big weenie and maybe only seeing what I want to see. But even though there are no guarantees, I think the evidence points more strongly in that direction as of this morning.

Good morning.

Most on here live and die by the op euro and fail to look at ensembles. This is the nature of the board. To your point the euro ensembles have been consistent on showing a colder pattern in the east.

[Cold Rain]

Most on here live and die by the op euro and fail to look at ensembles. This is the nature of the board. To your point the euro ensembles have been consistent on showing a colder pattern in the east.

Yep. It's hard to put a finger on any storm threats though. Maybe there's something there after 1/20....we'll have to see how the pattern evolves.

I'm not too excited about the system this week yet. That bowling ball coming through could pick up a spare for some folks, but it could just as easily be a gutter ball too. Not quite enough evidence to get totally onboard yet, but also not enough to poo poo it either. It'll be fun to see how the next couple of cycles trend.

[DaculaWeather]

HPC is discounting the deterministic models that far out right not because of no consistency. Models will be wrong for another week to a week and a half.