jburns Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Jburns gets the 9 inch lollipop. Not happening. I expect the R/S line to shift north as we get closer. Of course I'll take it if it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 SV snow map only showing snow for the mountains and one little strip around RDU. Nothing in between. This matches well with the ptype maps. Not sure why the snow depth maps always seem to be inflated when the ptype maps aren't showing snow. There's not a single ptype map that shows snow in central NC (which looks realistic), yet the snow depth maps have 2-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Can somebody provide me a sounding for KMRN for 99-102? I would love to see it. 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 18Z 17-JAN 8.5 2.4 1019 57 96 0.01 567 551 FRI 00Z 18-JAN 2.1 -0.6 1021 99 98 0.52 565 547 FRI 06Z 18-JAN 0.8 -1.1 1023 96 59 0.31 562 543 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Enembles, ensembles, ensembles coming in a bit guys! Lets see if Euro holds to some form of Wintry event also! The look of the 00z GFS for NC is okay, but of course as said the 2m temps are kinda warm with no 540 thickness.. but heavy rates can definitely help to cure that issue. WNC look pretty set for this event per this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I wouldn't worry at all about the 2m temps at this point. That vort is strong enough it should bring the temps crashing. GFS might be having a hard time with this....BUT as Robert said it's still a thread the needle storm especially for any of us on the edges. If the GFS were correct whoever cashes in is gonna get dumped on. I'm not worried. I'm enjoying the ride! Some had inquired about the 2m temps, so I simply obliged by posting the maps. You never know what might happen, but I continue to like being on the NW side of this thing. There have been occasions when storms have slipped by and dumped on Charlotte to Raleigh while missing the NW piedmont, but those are small in number compared to the reverse. Anyway, it's the first decent chance in two years to follow. Whether it comes to fruition or not, I just like the fact that it's a possibility inside 100 hours. It's been so long... This run of the GFS continues to print out the heavy rainfall potential. East TN to west NC looks to pick up some very nice rain totals over the next 72 hours with the stalling frontal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 18Z 17-JAN 8.5 2.4 1019 57 96 0.01 567 551 FRI 00Z 18-JAN 2.1 -0.6 1021 99 98 0.52 565 547 FRI 06Z 18-JAN 0.8 -1.1 1023 96 59 0.31 562 543 Geez...talk about being close. Not for the weak at heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Wow...This is really going to sting if this event falls apart.... Looks like the snow runs into a brick wall at the GA/AL border. I thought that only happened with severe weather ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Geez...talk about being close. Not for the weak at heart. This is how it looked for CAE from 12z. Here's hoping you guys get a real shot instead of it "trending North" into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Not happening. I expect the R/S line to shift north as we get closer. Of course I'll take it if it comes. Enjoy your trophy. It'll be in someone else hands by 6z. Always thread needle, but this would take major precesion. Best to hope for is the cold to speed up &/or storm be delayed 6 hrs as pointed out a few post ago. Atleast we have a storm to track that has survived a few model cycles now, unlike the other instance a few weeks back that bit the dust within 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Sure is nice to have something to track. However, very, very wary of storms that must rely on dynamic cooling. We remember the times it pans out, but for every one that pans out, 10 don't. The 850 low is very weak -- only closes off on one frame -- to get really strong dynamic cooling, we need that thing to trend stronger. The 500 low had better tilt this run. Only one thing worse than a thread-the-needle storm chance -- NO storm chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Enjoy your trophy. It'll be in someone else hands by 6z. Always thread needle, but this would take major precesion. Best to hope for is the cold to speed up &/or storm be delayed 6 hrs as pointed out a few post ago. Atleast we have a storm to track that has survived a few model cycles now, unlike the other instance a few weeks back that bit the dust within 6 hours. Well I am interested enough to take a look at the Euro tonight. First time this year I am interested enough to bother. I have trouble getting reved up by the GFS alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well, seems like the NOGAPS says not no, but "hell" no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Can we book this now? I am in orange county and would like hat GFS run verbatim. Either way we have something legit all of a sudden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Frigid weather in Southern Canada and the Northern US at 168...the leading edge of the arctic air will be invading the Ohio Valley by then. These big arctic outbreaks are usually book-ended by snows on its southern and eastern edges, I'm now officially sold on this cold coming on the 20th and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Sure is nice to have something to track. However, very, very wary of storms that must rely on dynamic cooling. We remember the times it pans out, but for every one that pans out, 10 don't. The 850 low is very weak -- only closes off on one frame -- to get really strong dynamic cooling, we need that thing to trend stronger. The 500 low had better tilt this run. Only one thing worse than a thread-the-needle storm chance -- NO storm chance! blah blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's funny but our local guys are calling for nothing, not even a rain drop this Thursday/Friday (wjhl). Both major models show measurable precipitation. Good call guys, good call. smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 That's a little disappointing. Tried to have good balance on that comment -- some good (something to track, tilt) and some not so good (obvious BL issues). Are we just supposed to ignore that surface temps -- at least in my neck of the woods -- are in the upper 30s for the big slug of moisture? Yes, I know the models could be underplaying the draw down of cold air, but it's a point worth discussing, no? Ended with an upbeat sentence repeating that it's nice to have something to track. I sure didn't type "blah blah blah" when you were honking the "event" a few weeks ago the ended up tracking west of the Applachians. Man, I barely know this board any more -- either be a lemming for the best case scenario or get "blah blah"ed. blah blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's funny but our local guys are calling for nothing, not even a rain drop this Thursday/Friday (wjhl). Both major models show measurable precipitation. Good call guys, good call. smh. WLOS (Asheville) has it dry also from Thursday and beyond. I don't have much faith in some of the weekend TV folks anyway. I would say starting tomorrow with Jason and others in this specific market, you'll see some acknowledgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 For some reason I don't think this will be the last shift north we see. I can recall several 5 day storms shifting northward into VA...only to give the NC/VA border area winter precip. Something to watch. Maybe it won't. But seeing the dramatic shift north already, and 5 days to go...this is far from set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 WLOS (Asheville) has it dry also from Thursday and beyond. I don't have much faith in some of the weekend TV folks anyway. I would say starting tomorrow with Jason and others in this specific market, you'll see some acknowledgement. Not much difference between dry and almost an inch or inch plus of qpf with temps close enough to provide a major snow chance......right? The local guy at wjhl IS a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I don't see it snowing anywhere with this system except for maybe in the mountains of western North Carolina. Threading the needle never works anywhere in the southeast but there. Might be a good time to go skiing or snowboarding if you're into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 0Z GFS does show a ZR storm for at least some of the main CAD areas of NC/SC/GA 1/25-6 fwiw, which is next to nothing. The only reason I'm mentioning it is that the warm Dec. analogs suggest a somewhat heightened risk for ZR around this time. I'm not saying the analogs say it is likely, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I don't see it snowing anywhere with this system except for maybe in the mountains of western North Carolina. Threading the needle never works anywhere in the southeast but there. Might be a good time to go skiing or snowboarding if you're into that. Crazier things have happened in regards to NC snowstorms. You never really know how the close to call storms work out until it's nowcast time. It's happened time and time again in central NC. The majority of the viewing public believe the weatherman is wrong when it comes to snow every storm and you wonder why...they have one tough job here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I believe the argument is...given qpf maker the latent heat usually pushes it a little north with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 0z Canadian has rain to mix to snow across most of the carolinas north of I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 there's also a mix for places like Atlanta and Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Taken verbatim (14JAN12 0Z GFS) there still is the SE pig ridge around on January 27. Is the deterministic model right? Can't say for sure. Toss of coin just as accurate 14 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Charlotte I like the graphics on that sounding (even better than Bufkit) what is that from? Also, if you can check the wetbulb temp/humidity for that time. It may be heavy enough precip to cool it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 That CLT sounding is actually not that bad...for this far out, it's just surface temps that make that not an ALL SNOW sounding...I wouldn't let that get you down. I wouldn't even pay attention to sounding, it's fun for the weenies if it shows a lot of frozen QPF but other than that it's obviously too far out to matter what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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