burgertime Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 12z is bringing the cold air into the SE a little quicker and thus it looks like it's going to squash out the storm chance around 200. We wanted the cold air...well it looks like we're gonna get it on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 MAJOR Arctic surge again on 12Z GFS Midwest Which hour you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Notice on some of the graphs how the forecast are starting to loop. They were headed one direction and making an about face. The transition into Phase 8 would roughly match the time frame of the onset of the cold weather pushing south. We've got a couple of weeks but I like the direction things are headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 You really do have a quality site my friend. I am curious though - primarily because I am not well educated on the MJO - as to what would be interpreted as "hints" when looking at those models. I'm seriously serious. I really don't know. Look at the squigilies...I believe the more they point north that means it probably will not die out at 7 and should continue into 8. Many of them are going further into 7 as opposed to diving south into the circle of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I agree with this statement, and with the key being in the ifs. This has been modeled several times this winter at this time range, but never verified. Why? The southeast ridge. Unless the MJO trends stronger, I don't see anything to drive a pattern shift to a different result. Yes, this has been the story all winter. The players on the field might be better than last winter, but they are still getting their butts kicked by that ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 As much as I would love to get some cold air this far south and have a typical shot at southern snow, this trend has consistently trumped the long to mid range trends. I do see the possibility of much denser air sinking far enough to affect it, but as I have stated before - it's hard to ignore the one trend that continues to beat the house. For the record, I'm rooting madly to see it happen. But I wouldn't forecast a cold turn at this point - not yet. That is just me, of course. This is really all I am saying too, and I'm right there with you. If we are still seeing the same signs in the models at 120-144 hours out, then I'll be as excited as anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I also strongly agree that suppression might be our bigger concern. The look of the pattern on the ensembles would take care of our SE ridge and although the trough and ridge axis isn't perfect to allow something to blossom in the SE I think someone would at least have an opportunity for at least a minor event within the 10 day time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Look at the squigilies...I believe the more they point north that means it probably will not die out at 7 and should continue into 8. Many of them are going further into 7 as opposed to diving south into the circle of death. Okay - so you want to see those pasta noodles continue to trek around and through Phase 7 (which I do see a few throwing that suggestion out there). What you don't want to see are those pasta noodles nose diving into a large plate of spaghetti sitting on top of the big meatball. Close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Which hour you looking at? Next Tuesday hour 120 2nd Arctic surge again showing up and poised to come down late next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Wow, 2nd massive Arctic surge even colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 Look at the squigilies...I believe the more they point north that means it probably will not die out at 7 and should continue into 8. Many of them are going further into 7 as opposed to diving south into the circle of death. That, my friend, is the Cold Rain Anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 GFS is the LR doesn't look great but it might be playing catch up. That northern energy interacted just enough to not allow anything to get steam in the south. Either way the colder air is coming the question is how cold and for how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Notice about halfway through the GFS run how the SE 588 high gets suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 There's some really, really cold members in the 6z ensemble suite. One has a wave developing on the arctic front with snow falling in -15 air in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 There's some really, really cold members in the 6z ensemble suite. One has a wave developing on the arctic front with snow falling in -15 air in NC. I wonder what the 12Z ens will show...didn't look at good to me on the OP with dry and supressed but I guess the models will struggle a bit with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 OK... back to the correct thread! like I said over there, the CPC has been slow to update the strat graphs today, as soon as I get those I'll post them here. Here are two images from the latest GFS. The first one (33 hours) shows the SE high sitting over south Florida and Cuba with a 582 line passing through North Georgia. The next image is a few frames later in the run (174 hours). Notice that as soon as the cold air arrives how the SE high pushes NE of it's earlier location and the 582 line is now in south Florida. That SE high location would help keep the cold air flowing south instead of trying to push off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Looks to me like there is a pretty wide spread with a storm around 200 once the cold air gets here on the GFS ENS...probably more members showing it squashed than one being there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 cmc leaves the energy back in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Some of the JFM strat stuff has updated (except of course for temps). I still find it amazing that the night polar jet went from 170 mph to zero, reversed, then back to 40 mph the other direction, all within 10 days. The wind anomalies are pretty stiff too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I guess there are two big questions on my mind right now: 1) How long does this event last? And by that I mean how long will we have a polar vortex that is displaced far to the south? With the QBO on the rise, you have to wonder... 2) Will we get a second period of warming later in the month and perhaps again in February? If we don't see a second or third period of warming that propagates down into the troposphere, you have to wonder how long any cold period would last... I guess both of these are interrelated...just thinking out loud...carry on Some of the JFM strat stuff has updated (except of course for temps). I still find it amazing that the night polar jet went from 170 mph to zero, reversed, then back to 40 mph the other direction, all within 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Both the GFS and ECMWF fairly agree a 100hPa(close to the surface)piece will drop close to Hudson Bay around day 6 or 7. Still have major differences in what to do with the 10hPa level PV.GFS is dropping it SE into SE Canada,ECMWF still has it up on the Yukon/Alaska border at day 10. Also noticing more reversal at 30hPa,usually a good sign of a fairly strong event.PV's are taking a beating with the warming,both models show them weakening. GFS is going for another warming in la la land close to Alaska,not as strong as this current one but not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Both the GFS and ECMWF fairly agree a 100hPa(close to the surface)piece will drop close to Hudson Bay around day 6 or 7. Still have major differences in what to do with the 10hPa level PV.GFS is dropping it SE into SE Canada,ECMWF still has it up on the Yukon/Alaska border at day 10. Also noticing more reversal at 30hPa,usually a good sign of a fairly strong event.PV's are taking a beating with the warming,both models show them weakening. GFS is going for another warming in la la land close to Alaska,not as strong as this current one but not bad. Having not studied warming episodes in detail, can anyone comment on multiple warmings (in the course of a month or so) and if that is common or not so much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 It's looking like a case of "be careful what you wish for". Not such a moisture rich environment showing. That's why I alway want the gom rain train established first and hope for some surprise cold, like a good cad, rather than having massive cold push down, and hoping for some surprise rain to fight it's way up into it. Now if the first cold can nudge the se ridge away, and allow a low to form up between the shots of intense cold, I'm all for that, but reenforcing shots of dry cold, just leaves you with lots of dry cold. I love cold air, but dry cold can leave you wanting something more I like my chances in a marginal setup...33 and rain gives you a chance.... 15 and sunny, doesn't, though it feels great messing around outside. I'd rather have marginal temps when the rain moves in, and get the 15 the next night to freeze the goodies down, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Unfortunately, the 12Z Euro doesn't plunge the Arctic air as far south. As a result, I expect it to not show a winter storm in the SE unlike recent Euro runs since I don't think it will be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Euro has a potent ULL in west TX on this run. Temps are close to the same maybe a hair cooler on the western edge of the east @168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 @186 due to it not being as cold as Larry pointed out it's sending our moisture up the apps it appears. Something tells me after this run DT will mysteriously do a 180 on his thoughts. @192 cold air is coming in and it looks like VA might get a nice hit in the next few frames. If that ULL can hold up coming across the east someone is going to get a nice surprise per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 We could have a large discussion on SSW events, and there is still a lot to be learned about how SSW events work. The initial temperature rise in the NH is believed to be started by planetary waves that propagate to the stratosphere from the troposphere. The complex processes that occur can cause additional heating, but each instance is different. but yes, you could have a stratosphere in a state of imbalance and that state can trigger additional warming. Some of the pauses you see in the graphs are due to those complex interactions going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Unfortunately, the 12Z Euro doesn't plunge the Arctic air as far south. As a result, I expect it to not show a winter storm in the SE unlike recent Euro runs since I don't think it will be cold enough. This turned out to be the right analysis for MS/AL/GA/SC but there's actually much more snow for NC/TN. As a result of the Arctic air not being as far south, the low tracks considerably further north and isn't a GOM Miller A. Temp.'s are much warmer for most and MS/AL/GA/SC get no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Euro is ever so close for folks in NC but the cold air just doesn't make it in time. My weenie side says to like this run since it shows how if we get a few things right this could be a big one. However it's 200 hours out so there is plenty of time for it to totally become non existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 This turned out to be the right analysis for MS/AL/GA/SC but there's actually much more snow for NC/TN. As a result of the Arctic air not being as far south, the low tracks considerably further north and isn't a GOM Miller A. Temp.'s are much warmer for most and MS/AL/GA/SC get no snow. It might be some rain to snow for those on the northern fringes and maybe some on the backside but it looks iffy on the surface for NC. Still not a bad look for so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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