Shawn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Here's the deal for Columbia SC people. The 12z GFS did show snow, as did the 12z Euro. The 12z Euro was so borderline, it would most likely be a bit of sleet/wintry mix if we were lucky. Basically, the 12Z runs were okay for CAE if you want snow, but I don't think it will continue to show this. Looking at 1000-500mb thickness values, it is not even worth it. 850's looked fine, but that's the nature of this upper level low, any change in track can really screw you in CAE. The ensemble from the 12Z GFS showed rain for CAE, along with the 18z OP run. The track and intensity of the ULL on these model runs really aren't very conductive for a good snow around most of SC, much less CAE IMO. We may be lucky to even see a flake or sleet pellet in the midlands. The TwisterData maps are notoriously terrible at snowfall output, which lead me to the barely cold enough sounding at 120hrs on the 12z GFS (for pure snow). The problem with the sounding from the GFS is between 114-120HRS on the 12z GFS, the precip was going to accumulate and by 120, the surface temps are still a tad above freezing, and in Bufkit, the soundings looked almost too warm for much other than a couple flakes/pellets if that mixed with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 ok I'm at 66 Degrees Burger is at 63 and Shawn is at 66 This is way to good not to be excited about the weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 hour 21 Going to need the ice storm warnings... north MS area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 00z is a little quicker with the energy out west out to 75. Looks like it might be a tad south of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Just comparing maps at 5h it looks like the 12z GFS with placement of the energy just faster and stronger. We'll see where it goes out to 81 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 This might be a good run. It's potent and pulling down some cold air with it. It looks to be taking a good path for NC. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 @96 850 line runs along the NC/SC border to CLT to RDU with the bulk of precip moving in. Just on the SFC it looks too warm but there might be enough energy with it to be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Wow, destroys the mtns/foothills.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 WNC cashes in big time at 99hrs....holy moly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 @99 lots of qpf gonna be around 1.25 in WNC with 850's cold enough. That energy is just south of CLT @102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Yeah, the 540 line isn't there but the 850s are def there with heavy precip for WNC and over to CLT northward at 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Per GFS this looks to be all frozen in NC. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 If the 0z Euro shows something similar, this board will probably explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/62/gfs99.png/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 2M temps at hour 99 for aren't too great for central NC (0c atleast). Heavy rates can change that of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 RDU seems to just squeeze this one out and cash in on all frozen precip from 99-108hrs...and by RDU I literally mean the airport. Of course the 0c line is dancing around between frames so it will be interesting to see the soundings of this run....snow line looks to be basically RDU to CLT and points north, for a rough estimate. Of course not falling as snow entirely for the boarder counties throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Can somebody provide me a sounding for KMRN for 99-102? I would love to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 RDU seems to just squeeze this one out and cash in on all frozen precip from 99-108hrs...and by RDU I literally mean the airport. Of course the 0c line is dancing around between frames so it will be interesting to see the soundings of this run....snow line looks to be basically RDU to CLT and points north, for a rough estimate. Of course not falling as snow entirely for the boarder counties throughout. We're probably both in the same boat. I'll wait for the soundings to get overly excited with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I haven't looked at the soundings yet but the 2m temps don't look good for central NC. I believe that WNC looks good per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 CLT is right on the 850 line during the heaviest precip. Would be really close. I wouldn't worry about surface temps at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It always seems to be North and west of Charlotte, Or IN THE MOUNTAINS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 We're probably both in the same boat. I'll wait for the soundings to get overly excited with this run. The Instant maps look like CLT will see something. I guess paying attention to just the 540 line is a bad idea (along with the 2m) temps. North Central NC into Southern VA looks wonderful on that map. Far West NC look to really have a chance at something big with this system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 We're probably both in the same boat. I'll wait for the soundings to get overly excited with this run. I agree burger...It's gonna be close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 RDU seems to just squeeze this one out and cash in on all frozen precip from 99-108hrs...and by RDU I literally mean the airport. Of course the 0c line is dancing around between frames so it will be interesting to see the soundings of this run....snow line looks to be basically RDU to CLT and points north, for a rough estimate. Of course not falling as snow entirely for the boarder counties throughout. Verbatim, the I-40 and north would be snow/mix, just south would be mostly rain. If the vort would hold on 6 hours longer it would have been better. The surface temps are crashing, if this comes in 6 hours later too that would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 SV snow map only showing snow for the mountains and one little strip around RDU. Nothing in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Here's the minimum 2m temps for hour 96. Not too bad for points north and west of I-85. Allan's site doesn't have hour 99, but hour 102 is also provided below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Here's the minimum 2m temps for hour 96. Not too bad for points north and west of I-85. Allan's site doesn't have hour 99, but hour 102 is also provided below. I wouldn't worry at all about the 2m temps at this point. That vort is strong enough it should bring the temps crashing. GFS might be having a hard time with this....BUT as Robert said it's still a thread the needle storm especially for any of us on the edges. If the GFS were correct whoever cashes in is gonna get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Wow...This is really going to sting if this event falls apart.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Jburns gets the 9 inch lollipop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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