LithiaWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 As for the arctic blast late next week, again I see nothing that locks it in and we end up with a transient shot. It seems to have moderated slowly with each subsuquent run of the GFS. I know there are other models but that is an easy model to follow the trend on due to IPS Meteostar and at least for my area it has moderated slowly with each run. That isn't a good sign based on the history of the GFS over the last year +. Again, I am hopeful with the SSW event taking place that we could be headed towards a much better pattern but folks need to wait it's not here yet and it can take some time for that event to have an impact on sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The situation is extremely borderline even for folks like Wilkesboro. I have looked at soundings for the last few runs of the GFS and other parameters such as 850 and 925 mb temps on many runs. If anyone gets wintery weather from what I'm seeing it would be folks like Wilkesboro in the extreme northern part of the state or perhaps the mountains. There aren't many posters residing in those areas. I'm already feeling a snarky tone from one poster about my comments and they do have merit. I can't post the sounds for every poster on the forum or every meteogram from every poster but I have yet to see one poster post a sounding that shows snow. Wilkesboro would be close for a touch of something wintery but in the end I think they come up just short. Things are just too darn warm for this to work out. MArginal is the best word I can come up with and my experience of living in the south for my entire life has shown me those setups rarely and I mean once in a blue moon work out. I don't have the ability to have good luck with pattern recognition so unless these models trend colder and wetter there are going to be many disappointed posters if you are expecting snow from where we are right now. I don't see how this can trend better with what we are working with right now. I could easily be wrong but we have some work to get folks into something other than a novelty event. The models don't show a serious threat imo it plain and simple. My original comment was that for most posters in the forum there isn't a legitimate threat. I stand by that 100%. A sliver of NC and the mountain areas don't make up a large portion of the posters in here by any stretch. Someone show me a sounding that gives you snow, I'd love to see it. I did a a quick search of the most northern areas where our posters reside and all I saw was borderline and marginal conditions that don't look promising imo. I hate to poo poo this threat but we are grasping at straws here. The whole event has big time fail wirtten on it for many reasons, lack of precip, lack of cold and just too darn borderline and marginal and I know most folks on here know how those events end up. If I could post pay maps here for the euro I would nip this in the bud pretty quickly. You're just wrong. Whether or not is snows is a different story, but there's certainly a threat and there are plenty of euro sounding/snow maps I could post to show you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 If I could post pay maps here for the euro I would nip this in the bud pretty quickly. You're just wrong. Whether or not is snows is a different story, but there's certainly a threat and there are plenty of euro sounding/snow maps I could post to show you. I don;t have access to paid Euro soundings but I have a hard time believing that it still isn't a very marginal setup which is the base of my case. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, I beleive what your saying but again for how many people, are we talking about the border of NC and VA? And how much precip do they show? I can't imagine it being much. What am I wrong about exactly? I've never said there is a 0% chance of snow. You bolded one comment and I don't know how I can be wrong when there was nothing there to be wrong about. I was asking to see a sounding that showed snow. I'm sure I'll get flack for this but you have been touting snow and cold and good pattern possibility all season with nothign to show for it. You have been quite wrong on many occasions this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Mariettawx, The 12z GFS had an all snow sounding for Columbia, SC Friday morning during peak of precipitation as seen below. Was the 18z GFS much warmer.... Yes, but that in no way means we should dismiss this threat. I think you’re being a little too negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 That's the problem... the threat doesn't exist right now for most posters in this forum. I'm hopeful we are headed towards a better pattern but I don't see it coming this week. Ill post my thoughts tonight. I've been super busy and life has been hectic but I feel my comments deserve some backing. The overall pattern is changing for the better. Last winter we could not but a 2-4 inch rain event to stop the 70 degree weather. We can now. Back to winter this week. I agree there is problems...hence no thread...there will always be potential problems...not sure about the soundings...but we know there will be problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Mariettawx, The 12z GFS had an all snow sounding for Columbia, SC Friday morning during peak of precipitation as seen below. Was the 18z GFS much warmer.... Yes, but that in no way means we should dismiss this threat. I think you’re being a little too negative Come on now. There is no way it is going to snow in Columbia this week. No threat at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I don;t have access to paid Euro soundings but I have a hard time believing that it still isn't a very marginal setup which is the base of my case. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, I beleive what your saying but again for how many people, are we talking about the border of NC and VA? And how much precip do they show? I can't imagine it being much. There's accumulating snow for most of far northern ga into NW SC into most of NC. The 600mb-850mb profile is very cold under this 5h vort and the precip rates mix the cold layer down fairly rapidly as the UL moves across the SE. So upper levels aren't marginal at all, the boundary layer is in the 34-35 degree range. But again that's irrelevant this far out. The only thing that matter is there is a 500mb low. If the models trend towards a strung out feature again, it will turn back into a frontal boundary like they were showing a few days ago. We want this trend of leaving back a cutoff to continue. There's certainly something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Mariettawx, The 12z GFS had an all snow sounding for Columbia, SC Friday morning during peak of precipitation as seen below. Was the 18z GFS much warmer.... Yes, but that in no way means we should dismiss this threat. I think you’re being a little too negative I am possibly being too negative about this setup and that does look like a snow sounding but its a blip I'm my eyes till it gets more support. I guess how one defines threat is the issue here. I think the chances are very slim for anyone to see snow but the odds go up towards the nc/va border but imo they are still very very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Just to give a quick example, here is the euro profile at 6z friday for friday at hickory. Notice 500-1000mb thickness value and the 850 temp FRI 06Z 18-JAN SFC TEMP=1.4 850MB TEMP = -3.3 SFCPRESS = 1026 QPF = 0.51 1000-500MB THCK = 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I am possibly being too negative about this setup and that does look like a snow sounding but its a blip I'm my eyes till it gets more support. I guess the how one defines threat is the issue here. I think the chances are very slim for anyone to see snow but the odds go up towards the nc/va border but imo they are still very very low. Well it is nice now that both the GFS and Euro show the cut off and doesn't weaken it to a wave. I do agree we (outside of the mountains) don't have great track records with marginal events. In about 4 hours we will see what the 0z Euro shows, since the models have been waffling there is a good chance we won't see a repeat of the 12z run. But, we are talking about a 4-5 day event and the fact that the ensembles agree with the Op does bode well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Just to give a quick example, here is the euro profile at 6z friday for friday at hickory. Notice 500-1000mb thickness value and the 850 temp FRI 06Z 18-JAN SFC TEMP=1.4 850MB TEMP = -3.3 SFCPRESS = 1026 QPF = 0.51 1000-500MB THCK = 542 That looks very close but I wonder how long a period that .51 falls and what 925 temps look like. Do you have that info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I don;t have access to paid Euro soundings but I have a hard time believing that it still isn't a very marginal setup which is the base of my case. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, I beleive what your saying but again for how many people, are we talking about the border of NC and VA? And how much precip do they show? I can't imagine it being much. What am I wrong about exactly? I've never said there is a 0% chance of snow. You bolded one comment and I don't know how I can be wrong when there was nothing there to be wrong about. I was asking to see a sounding that showed snow. I'm sure I'll get flack for this but you have been touting snow and cold and good pattern possibility all season with nothign to show for it. You have been quite wrong on many occasions this season. How often in a winter storm scenerio do we NOT have borderline variables here in the southeast? This isnt the upper midwest, canada, or northeast. It's a consistent variable here in the south. Someone will have to endure the rain, while someone else smelling the rain will have half dollar size heavy snowflakes. If you give me .5 to .75 of qpf with the potential to cool the column a degree or two and I will take my chances everytime...........jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 That looks very close but I wonder how long a period that .51 falls and what 925 temps look like. Do you have that info? 925mb temps are near -2. in fact the 0c 925mb line is in far s-central ga into eastern SC/eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 925mb temps are near -2. in fact the 0c 925mb line is in far s-central ga into eastern SC/eastern NC. Thank you for posting this. I still have my concerns I guess because we haven't had snow in two years folks are going to be interested in a borderline event. I would like to see the gfs come on board but again this storm chance is riddled with pitfalls that would yield nothing in the end. I love snow and sure hope someone gets some action. I'm not a negative nancy. Two years ago I had a history of posts talking up storm chances I just don't see it this go around but I've been wrong many times before and could be wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Again, I don't want to sound snarky, but I feel this board is poo pooing everything right now b/c we've had a bad stretch the last year. But last winter is over, let it go. Group counseling session over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 What's interesting is there a piece of energy that drops down from the northern stream and phases on the backside of the southern vort of the 12z run Euro run, that piece of energy is there on the 0z run but doesn't phase, not sure which is right, but that is one reason why the low was stronger on the 12z run...I wish I could find my plymouth links as it would show better there, it shows great on the AccuW site but can't post those... 12z/18z GFS is similar to the 0z Euro which I am guessing is why we are seeing a stronger southern vort. 0z run (no phase) 12z run (late phase) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 brandon, where are you finding those numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 brandon, where are you finding those numbers? I have the same exact numbers from AccuPro...I think he has the same, just typed in the values after copying & pasting, that's not the true format. Could be wrong though. BTW to Marietta, RDU has about 6" frozen, mostly snow per this run as well...plenty of snow soundings to be had. If you don't have access to paid Euro data it's kinda hard to tell that by free maps, so I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 GSP long range forecast, last paragraph states that they may have to jump on board with other forecast offices about Friday's weather. they'll wait another run or two. GSP says depending on how the early Friday system works out Expect Changes......Possibly Big Changes to Friday's Forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well, I was just about to check out the forecast for MS, since I'm from there originally and my family is there, but seriously, 90% of the regular contributors on this forum are from NC/SC/GAor so it seems. Like they said, post away with MS discussion. There is another WX forum out there that is more AL/MS centric. I'd say this forum is more like 80% contributors from NC/SC. That other forum is better for GA/AL/MS. AL weather is very important for those of us in GA since they are right next door, so that's why I usually pay more attention to the other forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 GSP long range forecast, last paragraph states that they may have to jump on board with other forecast offices about Friday's weather. they'll wait another run or two. GSP says depending on how the early Friday system works out Expect Changes......Possibly Big Changes to Friday's Forecast. Big changes indeed...did you see the new NAM? Not sure what to make of that but it is the NAM so all the usual caveats apply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I have the same exact numbers from AccuPro...I think he has the same, just typed in the values after copying & pasting, that's not the true format. Could be wrong though. BTW to Marietta, RDU has about 6" frozen, mostly snow per this run as well...plenty of snow soundings to be had. If you don't have access to paid Euro data it's kinda hard to tell that by free maps, so I get it. yeah, never mind. I thought he had extracted data for the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Here is CLT from the 12z Euro 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 00Z 18-JAN 4.3 -0.4 1023 96 99 0.22 568 549 FRI 06Z 18-JAN 1.3 -2.5 1026 97 99 0.62 564 543 FRI 12Z 18-JAN -2.5 -1.1 1028 94 14 0.24 566 543 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'd say this forum is more like 80% contributors from NC/SC. That other forum is better for GA/AL/MS. AL weather is very important for those of us in GA since they are right next door, so that's why I usually pay more attention to the other forum. There would be several in the potential target area...if it came to fruition. -burgertime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Big changes indeed...did you see the new NAM? Not sure what to make of that but it is the NAM so all the usual caveats apply It looked like if you extrapolated the NAM it would be north with that energy. IRRC the NAM is horrible with ULLs especially out past 60 hours. It will have it all over the place the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Here is CLT from the 12z Euro 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 00Z 18-JAN 4.3 -0.4 1023 96 99 0.22 568 549 FRI 06Z 18-JAN 1.3 -2.5 1026 97 99 0.62 564 543 FRI 12Z 18-JAN -2.5 -1.1 1028 94 14 0.24 566 543 hopefully the darn snow triangle will not live up to it's name that's alot of QPF mann. sorry for the weenie moment XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ok, Who is doing the PBP ? My vote is for Burger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ok, Who is doing the PBP ? My vote is for Burger. Def. not the Euro tonight. I have a long work week this week. I'm trying to make it for the GFS but I'm loosing steam fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ok, Who is doing the PBP ? My vote is for Burger. Just want to say, that the lazy (and cheap) among us do appreciate these play by plays, good work Burger and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Def. not the Euro tonight. I have a long work week this week. I'm trying to make it for the GFS but I'm loosing steam fast. ok at least the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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