January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[dsaur]

I like the evolution of the moisture.  18z gives me a half inch for the front then the Ull brings me another half in a few days later.  Will all that cold air around the chances for fun go up.  And it looks to stay a while, even if it isn't the bitter cold showing previously in here.  I've lost my .06 with temps cold enough in la la land, and the 850's in general are much warmer, but still cold enough around the edges for it to come on down with some help.  Looks good to me... something could spin up over the next few weeks, or at least to get me back into a flannel shirt....the way Jan. was meant to be, lol. 

  As for Miss..... I wouldn't wish anyone  near an inch of ice! T

[WilkesboroDude]

I was going to create a thread for the ice potential in Mississippi...but lets face it...no a lot of posters there. Looks like Louisiana has beat the NC Piedmont/foothills on a Winter Storm Watch this winter.

 

After seeing the 6z,12z, I knew today was going to continue special stuff. Need to wait until after the rain event for another thread, which in fact, we may need a thread for the rain event not sure. Looks like there is a tornado warning out in TN with this.

[david30]

I personally am from NW/MS and was hoping for anything but an ice storm, up to .75 of ice would be bad, weve had upwards of 5-8 inches of rain in areas since the rain started the otherday and this would potentially be disaster waiting to happen.

[dsaur]

I personally am from NW/MS and was hoping for anything but an ice storm, up to .75 of ice would be bad, weve had upwards of 5-8 inches of rain in areas since the rain started the otherday and this would potentially be disaster waiting to happen.

 Amen!  I've thought this winter had zr written all over it for a while, and I sure hope you don't get the first smashing, but if you do, I doubt you will be the last!  T

[david30]

 Amen!  I've thought this winter had zr written all over it for a while, and I sure hope you don't get the first smashing, but if you do, I doubt you will be the last!  T

Im hoping for a denser push of air to at least be mostly sleet if it cant snow, but all discussions ive read indicate anything but.

[burgertime]

Euro ensemble looks even better than the op version. Really spitting out a strong comma head-deformation band over NC as this 5h vort exits.

 

Thanks for the update. EPS control run has over an inch of QPF for the CLT area and an inch for areas north and west of here. Still worry for this area it being too arm aloft.  On the EPS control run 850's are just cold enough with that heavy of qpf it would cool the column enough? Either way if that was all snow then we would be buried. 

[eyewall]

Wow this winter has driven this place into the ****ter (especially the current torch). It is understandable though. I think everyone needs to step away for just a bit . This includes me.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Thanks for the update. EPS control run has over an inch of QPF for the CLT area and an inch for areas north and west of here. Still worry for this area it being too arm aloft. 

GFS paints an inch of QPF through our neck of the woods but temps are WAY too warm.... both at the surface and aloft. Looks like the Euro is the outlier right now. I would love to see the GFS trend colder...... but it seems like a stretch at the moment.

[QC_Halo]

Well, I was just about to check out the forecast for MS, since I'm from there originally and my family is there, but seriously, 90% of the regular contributors on this forum are from NC/SC/GAor so it seems.

Like they said, post away with MS discussion. There is another WX forum out there that is more AL/MS centric.

[tnweathernut]

Thanks for the update. EPS control run has over an inch of QPF for the CLT area and an inch for areas north and west of here. Still worry for this area it being too arm aloft.  On the EPS control run 850's are just cold enough with that heavy of qpf it would cool the column enough? Either way if that was all snow then we would be buried. 

Burger,

Is the QPF and track on the EPS control run similar to the 18z GFS?  It sounds like this one is juicing up considerably as we get closer to the event. Heck, the 18z GFS had a decent little snowfall for much of east TN.

[burgertime]

Burger,

Is the QPF and track on the EPS control run similar to the 18z GFS?  It sounds like this one is juicing up considerably as we get closer to the event. Heck, the 18z GFS had a decent little snowfall for much of east TN.

 

At 5h the track is further south and looks more wound up. Eastern TN gets in on the fun. Check your PM

[WilkesboroDude]

This gets cranking at hour 90 in east Texas...tonight's runs will be interesting for sure...it either holds or it doesn't. Could be 1 emotional run coming up.

[Marion_NC_WX]

After seeing the 6z,12z, I knew today was going to continue special stuff. Need to wait until after the rain event for another thread, which in fact, we may need a thread for the rain event not sure. Looks like there is a tornado warning out in TN with this.

Look...I know you are new to the forums but we don't need a special thread for a 2-4 inch rainstorm in parts of the South. People will just post and update totals in the general obs thread.

[NCBlizzard]

At 5h the track is further south and looks more wound up. Eastern TN gets in on the fun. Check your PM

To me the EPS, at 108 when the bulk of the precip is falling, looks colder than the GFS. It has the 540 line running from the Upstate to CLT to RDU.

[burgertime]

To me the EPS, at 108 when the bulk of the precip is falling, looks colder than the GFS. It has the 540 line running from the Upstate to CLT to RDU.

 

Yea we want that run to be what happens. The big worry of course is sfc temps but we'll worry about that when we get there.

[dsaur]

Im hoping for a denser push of air to at least be mostly sleet if it cant snow, but all discussions ive read indicate anything but.

Yeah, we need a push of cold air all the way into the gulf coast to get deep enough cold in the column....to break the ice, so to speak   So far all we get is nipping and barking around the edges, and not a deep enough push...ice stuff.  Anyway, glad you're posting!  Need to beat back these obnoxious Carolina folks with their snow every winter..... while us important Ga. Ala. and Miss folks languish forgotten, lol.  Don't know why us deep south folks don't get posters who love winter weather.. might be something to do with the fact Carolina actually gets winter weather, on occasion, lol.  T

[valkhorn]

This gets cranking at hour 90 in east Texas...tonight's runs will be interesting for sure...it either holds or it doesn't. Could be 1 emotional run coming up.

The last time I checked, the ptypes were not all snow across TN - with a good bit of that falling as a mixed bag of rain/sleet/zr

 

Twisterdata often overdoes snowfall accumulations.

 

The ensemble members don't look all that conclusive either for 18z. The Euro at 12z put it further south.

 

I could be wrong though, but I'm not altogether sold on this.

[BullCityWx]

The EPS is much warmer at the surface than the Euro.

[packbacker]

The EPS is much warmer at the surface than the Euro.

Really, they aren't out yet on AccuW, it still has 0z run for the 2m temps. You get them somewhere else?

[packbacker]

The 12z EPS control is much colder and just as wet when compared against the 0z run. For NC that is...

[LithiaWx]

I don't know what the heck folks are getting excited about. There are so many issues with the upcoming "storm" and the upcoming "arctic blast" I don't even know where to start. But if folks really want to know ill take the time to detail it. Although it would take a while to present it I'd be open to doing it.

[WilkesboroDude]

I don't know what the heck folks are getting excited about. There are so many issues with the upcoming "storm" and the upcoming "arctic blast" I don't even know where to start.

 

Yep we just got to start somewhere. We know the potential is real when parts of our region go from 70s to Winter Storm Watches and another threat pops up inside of hour 100. Will be a fun week of change.

[FoothillsNC]

The Euro ensembles have been pretty good lately, compared to operational runs and GFS. So I'll be interested to see how it does on tonights and tomorrow's runs. Considering how most SW cutoffs have almost always been stronger than progged by operationals, I think tonights run will keep that trend alive. I think this bodes very well for Tenn, western NC and southern VA , and possibly extreme northern Alabama and north GA mountains at the end, considering how this 5H evolves. It doesnt' get to neutral point in time to do much for western TN, or MS most likely (but the 5H cutoff will bring its own cold air there) but the moisture really blossoms once it taps the gulf around Ga, eastern Alabama, eastern TN and the Carolinas. Then we have to see how the temps work out Any furth north and the warm advection will bring rain to most of SC and lower NC, but if we thread the needle just right , then some dynamics can work out and we have evaporational and dynamic cooling to eventually bring snow to the surface in I-85 corridor, I'm just not sure yet. Usually, this Does NOT work out for that region between Gainesville, Spartanburg, Forest City, Shelby Charlotte, but in this case, the ECMWF says it will. So if it does, kudos to that  model. But I won't be surprised if it lifts its dynamic cooling a little more north toward I-40.  Remember 2 weeks ago under 5 days it, and GFS had a pretty big ICE and SNOW event for SC, NC and Va, then suddenly lost it. But we're in a changing pattern so all bets are off.  Still, I'd rather see cold air and HP firmly established around this region before any precip arrives. 9 out of 10 times it ends up a "cold chasing precip" deal.  If you recall living in the 85 corridor, many times it will snow or mix on your north, east and southwest (relative to GSP to CLT  corridor) thanks to a bubble of warm 950 temps. I kind of see some hints of that today, but this is a little bit different setup. Rare setup, so I don't know.  Sometimes, dynamics will work in favor in that region, and in this particular case, a nighttime event, and the possibility that the 5H system has better dynamics than shown (recall a couple 5H systems this Fall that were very strong in Ala, Ga, SC) in just 72 hours out...and who knows yet. There are some possibilities. I think AVL to GSO to maybe RDU have a decent shot at seeing snow fall, and if it can get just a little stronger, maybe reaching the 3 contour cutoff level in ECMWF, then TN  and southern half of VA will end up under the gun at the expense of SC, NC and GA. (still would be good for nw NC and NC mtns).

Since this is mostly a nighttime event, snow accums will be ok, but after 70 to 80 degreee wx, melt quickly of course.  Still, snow is snow and nothing fell in some of these areas last year.

 

After this temps moderate to near normal, until the next big front. I analyze this more in detail at my site. I'll be very interested to see if the CFS is over done with its very cold look for late January and most of February. For the most part it's been adamant on a cold one, but the operationals don't really look that way. It's pretty obvious on the operational runs that something big is afoot..sometimes Cross Polar flow shows up, and sometimes they break down the western  ridge. I don't know which will be right. A happy medium means that some parts of TN valley to Apps stilll end up with above normal snowfall this season. And there's always the chance that MJO will work fully toward a phase 8, and if that happens, I think we end up with a much more widespread snow season before all is said and done. I dont' relally trust the models at this point but put more emphasis on the pattern and where it usually goes. Something big could happen later on.  This is a pretty strong SSW event and the models may just be catching on. The fact the operationals change so much is a big clue. Lots of possibilites, but never any guarantee. However, I still stand by my negative AO study...and will analyze it completely after Winter ends. If much of the upper southeast from northern MS to eastern VA isnt' above normal snowfall, I'll be surprised, just based on that study.  Even in a warm Winter.

[LithiaWx]

Yep we just got to start somewhere. We know the potential is real when parts of our region go from 70s to Winter Storm Watches and another threat pops up inside of hour 100. Will be a fun week of change.

That's the problem... the threat doesn't exist right now for most posters in this forum. I'm hopeful we are headed towards a better pattern but I don't see it coming this week. Ill post my thoughts tonight. I've been super busy and life has been hectic but I feel my comments deserve some backing.

[tnweathernut]

I don't know what the heck folks are getting excited about. There are so many issues with the upcoming "storm" and the upcoming "arctic blast" I don't even know where to start. But if folks really want to know ill take the time to detail it. Although it would take a while to present it I'd be open to doing it.

I won't speak for everyone, but since it's been 2 years since we have had a legitimate threat, that's kind of exciting (borderline details aside).

[HKY_WX]

That's the problem... the threat doesn't exist right now for most posters in this forum. I'm hopeful we are headed towards a better pattern but I don't see it coming this week. Ill post my thoughts tonight. I've been super busy and life has been hectic but I feel my comments deserve some backing.

 There's certainly a threat here. Especially for someone like wilkesboro who lives near the NC/VA border in NW north carolina. GA is a different story. You need to qualify your remarks.

[tnweathernut]

The Euro ensembles have been pretty good lately, compared to operational runs and GFS. So I'll be interested to see how it does on tonights and tomorrow's runs. Considering how most SW cutoffs have almost always been stronger than progged by operationals, I think tonights run will keep that trend alive. I think this bodes very well for Tenn, western NC and southern VA , and possibly extreme northern Alabama and north GA mountains at the end, considering how this 5H evolves. It doesnt' get to neutral point in time to do much for western TN, or MS most likely (but the 5H cutoff will bring its own cold air there) but the moisture really blossoms once it taps the gulf around Ga, eastern Alabama, eastern TN and the Carolinas. Then we have to see how the temps work out Any furth north and the warm advection will bring rain to most of SC and lower NC, but if we thread the needle just right , then some dynamics can work out and we have evaporational and dynamic cooling to eventually bring snow to the surface in I-85 corridor, I'm just not sure yet. Usually, this Does NOT work out for that region between Gainesville, Spartanburg, Forest City, Shelby Charlotte, but in this case, the ECMWF says it will. So if it does, kudos to that  model. But I won't be surprised if it lifts its dynamic cooling a little more north toward I-40.  Remember 2 weeks ago under 5 days it, and GFS had a pretty big ICE and SNOW event for SC, NC and Va, then suddenly lost it. But we're in a changing pattern so all bets are off.  Still, I'd rather see cold air and HP firmly established around this region before any precip arrives. 9 out of 10 times it ends up a "cold chasing precip" deal.  If you recall living in the 85 corridor, many times it will snow or mix on your north, east and southwest (relative to GSP to CLT  corridor) thanks to a bubble of warm 950 temps. I kind of see some hints of that today, but this is a little bit different setup. Rare setup, so I don't know.  Sometimes, dynamics will work in favor in that region, and in this particular case, a nighttime event, and the possibility that the 5H system has better dynamics than shown (recall a couple 5H systems this Fall that were very strong in Ala, Ga, SC) in just 72 hours out...and who knows yet. There are some possibilities. I think AVL to GSO to maybe RDU have a decent shot at seeing snow fall, and if it can get just a little stronger, maybe reaching the 3 contour cutoff level in ECMWF, then TN  and southern half of VA will end up under the gun at the expense of SC, NC and GA. (still would be good for nw NC and NC mtns).

Since this is mostly a nighttime event, snow accums will be ok, but after 70 to 80 degreee wx, melt quickly of course.  Still, snow is snow and nothing fell in some of these areas last year.

 

After this temps moderate to near normal, until the next big front. I analyze this more in detail at my site. I'll be very interested to see if the CFS is over done with its very cold look for late January and most of February. For the most part it's been adamant on a cold one, but the operationals don't really look that way. It's pretty obvious on the operational runs that something big is afoot..sometimes Cross Polar flow shows up, and sometimes they break down the western  ridge. I don't know which will be right. A happy medium means that some parts of TN valley to Apps stilll end up with above normal snowfall this season. And there's always the chance that MJO will work fully toward a phase 8, and if that happens, I think we end up with a much more widespread snow season before all is said and done. I dont' relally trust the models at this point but put more emphasis on the pattern and where it usually goes. Something big could happen later on.  This is a pretty strong SSW event and the models may just be catching on. The fact the operationals change so much is a big clue. Lots of possibilites, but never any guarantee. However, I still stand by my negative AO study...and will analyze it completely after Winter ends. If much of the upper southeast from northern MS to eastern VA isnt' above normal snowfall, I'll be surprised, just based on that study.  Even in a warm Winter.

Robert,

Thank you for your contributions to this board.  I have enjoyed a premium membership at your wxsouth.com site and learn something almost every time I read one of your well thought out posts or watch your videos.  I agree it will be interesting to see what happens later this month and into February.

Any guesses on blocking that should show up with the ongoing MWW?  I thought blocking was almost a given, but we are yet to see it really showing up on the models at this point.

[burgertime]

That's the problem... the threat doesn't exist right now for most posters in this forum. I'm hopeful we are headed towards a better pattern but I don't see it coming this week. Ill post my thoughts tonight. I've been super busy and life has been hectic but I feel my comments deserve some backing.

 

I strongly disagree with that statement. Just look at my map where the threat is most likely to occur is actually where the majority of our posters live. Now the argument certainly could be made if this is a legitimate threat. The fact is though the models for awhile now have said yes. This includes ENS models which have done very well with recent systems. Threat for GA? No. For NC? Yes. 

[FoothillsNC]

Robert,

Thank you for your contributions to this board.  I have enjoyed a premium membership at your wxsouth.com site and learn something almost every time I read one of your well thought out posts or watch your videos.  I agree it will be interesting to see what happens later this month and into February.

Any guesses on blocking that should show up with the ongoing MWW?  I thought blocking was almost a given, but we are yet to see it really showing up on the models at this point.

I really don't know. Usually a negative AO will lead to that blocking but operationals aren't showing any signs yet. A cold Greenland is usually not good for the Southeast, but then again this has been a strange set of indices so far ( long period of neg. AO, and mostly NAO) and we are roasting.  For the last 2 years, the cold has gone to Europe, Asia and Russia.  Just now the models have been hinting we will. But we need to get and KEEP that western  ridging. If not, zonal flow will take over again in 2 weeks, with more above average air.

What's interesting is with such a long lived neg AO, neg NAO we still end up above normal down here. I dont' know for sure it changes. The big western ridge needs to materialize....much futher east and a cold Greenland could do us in. But the CFS is adamant and so is some other models, so we just have to wait and see. Sometimes (many times) the models bring the cold too early and I could see the first round only dropping us to normal, but an unseen later round gets us really cold. Too early to know. Atleast we have some fantasy GFS runs to look at this seaon, they didn't even exist last seaon. This SSW could  turn the tables in a big way.

[LithiaWx]

The situation is extremely borderline even for folks like Wilkesboro.  I have looked at soundings for the last few runs of the GFS and other parameters such as 850 and 925 mb temps on many runs.  If anyone gets wintery weather from what I'm seeing it would be folks like Wilkesboro in the extreme northern part of the state or perhaps the mountains.  There aren't many posters residing in those areas. I'm already feeling a snarky tone from one poster about my comments and they do have merit.  I can't post the sounds for every poster on the forum or every meteogram from every poster but I have yet to see one poster post a sounding that shows snow.  Wilkesboro would be close for a touch of something wintery but in the end I think they come up just short.  Things are just too darn warm for this to work out.  Marginal is the best word I can come up with and my experience of living in the south for my entire life has shown me those setups rarely and I mean once in a blue moon work out.  I don't have the ability to have good luck with pattern recognition so my comments are based on my ability to read models verbatim which I do feel I have some skill in doing.  Unless these models trend colder and wetter there are going to be many disappointed posters if you are expecting snow from where we are right now. I don't see how this can trend better with what we are working with right now.  I could easily be wrong but we have some work to get folks into something other than a novelty event. The models don't show a serious threat imo it's plain and simple.  My original comment was that for most posters in the forum there isn't a legitimate threat.  I stand by that 100%.  A sliver of NC and the mountain areas don't make up a large portion of the posters in here by any stretch.

 

Someone show me a sounding that gives you snow, I'd love to see it.  I did a a quick search of the most northern areas where our posters reside and all I saw was borderline and marginal conditions that don't look promising imo. I hate to poo poo this threat but we are grasping at straws here.  The whole event has big time fail wirtten on it for many reasons, lack of precip, lack of cold and just too darn borderline and marginal and I know most folks on here know how those events end up.