BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Alright thanks. I am too cheap to pay for AccuPro. Can anyone tell me how much qpf it is spitting out near Norfolk? You can do a free 30 day trial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Alright thanks. I am too cheap to pay for AccuPro. Can anyone tell me how much qpf it is spitting out near Norfolk? Not much probably around .10 - .20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Well you gotta love that we have this possible solution on the table only 4/5 days out instead of 7/8. Will be fun to watch this week. New NAM is out and it is not on-board at all. Shows the ULL much stronger and farther north. Also shows the SE ridge much stronger than the GFS....but it's the NAM at 84 hours so take it for what it is worth......(not much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 RAH is still in a watch mode in this afternoon's long range discussion: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT IN THEMEAN...IN THE FORM OF A S/W TROUGH AMPLIFYING THROUGH NEVADA THISAFTERNOON...WILL SHEAR EASTWARD IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE BASEOF A DEVELOPING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY INVOF HUDSON BAY/SE CANADA.THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS S/W ISONLY AVERAGE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACEREFLECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED OUT TO SEA AND NOT GAIN LATITUDE UPTHE EAST COAST...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SE CANADAVORTEX. WHILE SUCH A SCENARIO WILL FREE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTICAND NORTHEAST OF ANY COASTAL STORM THREAT...IT WILL SPREAD A SWATHOF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES --INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS -- THU-FRI...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHICHWOULD BE IN THE FORM OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. CURRENT 20-30 POPACROSS THE NC SOUTHERN TIER THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL NEED UPWARDADJUSTMENTS AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...BUTSHY OF NC LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TO GET THIS ARCTIC AIR TO OURLATITUDE...HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE UPSTREAM FLOW AMPLIFICATION THATTHE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS INSISTED WILL OCCUR WITH THEDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGING (POSITIVE PNA) EARLY-MIDWEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Wow, shocked RAH mentioned that this far out. They are usually conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Wow, shocked RAH mentioned that this far out. They are usually conservative. Second day in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 New NAM is out and it is not on-board at all. Shows the ULL much stronger and farther north. Also shows the SE ridge much stronger than the GFS....but it's the NAM at 84 hours so take it for what it is worth......(not much). It doesn't matter because it's the 84 NAM but at 84 hours and 84 hours on the Euro it actually lines up pretty well just from my amateur eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 GSP acknowledges potential... THE REAL PROBLEM COMES TO LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY ASTHE LONG WAVE UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOTHTHE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME MEASURE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM ORPHANUPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...WHICH DAMPENS AS ITIS BEING REABSORBED INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF BY FRIDAY. AS THESYSTEM COMES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...FAVORABLE MID/UPPER SUPPORT ANDMOISTURE WOULD FORCE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HASFAVORABLE THICKNESS AND PROFILES ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NEGEORGIA SUCH THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD BE SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN. THEGFS APPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER UNTIL THE 12Z RUN OF THEECMWF CAME ON BOARD WITH THE SAME GENERAL IDEA. BECAUSE THIS IS ARELATIVELY NEW DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTYWITH STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A WEAKENING SYSTEM...THINK IT BEST FORNOW TO NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR THISCYCLE. IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...THEN WE CAN HOP ON BOARDWITH THE NEXT CYCLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I don't blame GSP for being conservative, they don't want to get burned... again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 It looks like the Euro ensembles beat down the PNA late in the period. It would be nice to get into a period where we can keep that for an extended period of time, but with the cold PDO we might have a hard time getting a PNA to sustain itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I don't blame GSP for being conservative, they don't want to get burned... againlol i have no idea why they put us in that advisory last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 It doesn't matter because it's the 84 NAM but at 84 hours and 84 hours on the Euro it actually lines up pretty well just from my amateur eyes Hmmm. I was just extrapolating the NAM, and I could not imagine that we could have a snowstorm with the 582dm height up that far north in advance of the storm. It must really crash in the next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I don't blame GSP for being conservative, they don't want to get burned... again RAH is doing the same thing. I don't blame; as long as they state the chance in the discussions it covers them in case it does happen, The official release forecast will not mention wintery precip. That's fine for the 99% of the people looking at next weeks forecast. The 1% (us weenies & weather sensitive organizations) are being satisified with the mention of the possibilities. I have a hard time at work telling people that there is chance of snow when the offical NWS forecast has rain at 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 No Wilkes, Cold Rain needs to do the hononrs......How many more runs before we start a dedicated storm thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 New NAM is out and it is not on-board at all. Shows the ULL much stronger and farther north. Also shows the SE ridge much stronger than the GFS....but it's the NAM at 84 hours so take it for what it is worth......(not much). The NAM has showed a much stronger ULL for several runs now. If the NAM went past hour 84 it looks like the ULL would hold together alot better on its trek eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 No Wilkes, Cold Rain needs to do the hononrs......How many more runs before we start a dedicated storm thread? Me personally...I would wait another 24 hours before starting a thread specific to the Thurs/Friday threat. Start it Tuesday morning after the 0z suite. For now keep the conversation in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 No Wilkes, Cold Rain needs to do the honors......How many more runs before we start a dedicated storm thread? you are $&%! right about that! hence, why I chose the board name I did also, 18z goof is more stout with our 500mb system @ 72-84 compared to the 12z was at the same times I have a feeling this upper low ends up tracking slightly farther north and NC scores Thursday night... hopefully the ULL can produce some -2 to -3Cs within the cold core at 5,000ft... we would also sustain some heavier rates with more lift if this thing can stay stronger longer / somewhat bundled at 500mb longer it is going to take heavy, consistent precip rates to overcome low-level warmth and soil temps edit: now that I've seen the news frames - stronger surface system draws a bit warmer air at 925mb and even 850mb... this is so marginal it will go back and forth on each model run I bet catch 22 again... we either want this to stay weak and go right over our heads or trend stronger and further south, but I doubt the upper energy can go much further south can happen based on the flow upstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 18z NAM & GFS may be showing snow for Dallas,TX. Good signs for the SE imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 If this ULL can stay heading more east than northeast NC is gonna get something good on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 18z says congrats for MS and far eastern TN. For NC/SC it looks like it's not going to cut it cold wise. @111 we've got enough moisture but the cold is staying in the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 This event has really ramped up the QPF over the last couple runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 If the 500mb vort was about 50-60 miles to the south, Western North Carolina would have been in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 If I'm reading them right the 12z ensembles didn't have too much especially for SC. Maybe these 18z enembles will be different. Although, I think using the 12 and 00z runs are the smartest option forecasting this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 No Wilkes, Cold Rain needs to do the hononrs......How many more runs before we start a dedicated storm thread? Good Call Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Well...another run of some serious cold in the mid to long range...1048 HP at 162 and it will slide east of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS316 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>042-140530-/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0001.130114T1200Z-130115T0600Z/ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...GREENVILLE...BELZONI...ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...YAZOO CITY316 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGHMONDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAYEVENING.* TIMING: FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO START AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.* MAIN IMPACT: ICE ACCUMULATION OF O.25 TO 0.5 INCH IS EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.75 INCH POSSIBLE.* OTHER IMPACTS: SUCH ICING WILL CAUSE VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS ELEVATED SURFACES WILL ICE OVER ALONG WITH SOME ICING ON ROADS. ADDITIONALLY...ACCUMULATING ICE ON TREES AND POWER LINES WILL CAUSE THEM TO FAIL...RESULTING IN DOWNED LINES AND POWER OUTAGES. Can;'t believe everyone here leaves Miss out and just talks about IMBY.Unreal for a SE board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 18z has the sustained cold coming in around 192 for those North of I-20 and it stays through 288, there's an actual clipper system that slides down by 288...could put down some rare "clipper snows" in KY, VA, TN maybe parts of NC. It finally moderates @ 312...however truth be known if this does indeed drop down, I'm willing to bet there will be additional pieces dropping out of Canada that's not being picked up in the fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS316 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>042-140530-/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0001.130114T1200Z-130115T0600Z/ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...GREENVILLE...BELZONI...ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...YAZOO CITY316 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGHMONDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAYEVENING.* TIMING: FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO START AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.* MAIN IMPACT: ICE ACCUMULATION OF O.25 TO 0.5 INCH IS EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.75 INCH POSSIBLE.* OTHER IMPACTS: SUCH ICING WILL CAUSE VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS ELEVATED SURFACES WILL ICE OVER ALONG WITH SOME ICING ON ROADS. ADDITIONALLY...ACCUMULATING ICE ON TREES AND POWER LINES WILL CAUSE THEM TO FAIL...RESULTING IN DOWNED LINES AND POWER OUTAGES. Can;'t believe everyone here leaves Miss out and just talks about IMBY.Unreal for a SE board Its nothing sinister. There's just a lack of MS posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Euro ensemble looks even better than the op version. Really spitting out a strong comma head-deformation band over NC as this 5h vort exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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