BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 GFS is VERY close to showing some snow over SC. 2m temps are somewhat of an issue though, as always, about 36 (ish) prolly some rain/snow mix Actually, this run it does show snow in Columbia. It's almost for sure wrong but it does: Date: 5 day AVN valid 12Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: KCUBLatitude: 33.97Longitude: -81.00-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1020 99 0.2 -0.4 96 0.6 -0.0 34 13 271.8 272.4 272.1 281.6 3.63 1 1000 255 -1.1 -1.6 96 0.6 -1.3 35 22 272.1 272.7 271.9 281.2 3.39 2 950 663 -2.6 -3.2 96 0.6 -2.9 34 30 274.5 275.0 273.0 283.2 3.18 3 900 1094 -0.5 -1.3 94 0.8 -0.9 31 26 281.0 281.7 277.6 291.8 3.86 4 850 1551 -0.9 -1.8 94 0.9 -1.3 31 20 285.2 285.9 279.7 296.4 3.94 5 800 2035 -0.8 -1.9 93 1.0 -1.3 10 13 290.3 291.0 282.3 302.3 4.17 6 750 2550 -1.7 -2.4 95 0.7 -2.0 291 11 294.8 295.5 284.3 307.4 4.27 7 700 3098 -3.8 -4.3 96 0.5 -4.0 228 19 298.3 299.0 285.4 310.2 3.98 8 650 3681 -5.9 -6.2 98 0.3 -6.0 200 37 302.3 303.0 286.6 313.6 3.71 9 600 4306 -8.0 -8.3 98 0.3 -8.1 208 55 306.9 307.6 287.9 317.6 3.42 10 550 4979 -11.2 -11.6 97 0.4 -11.4 222 59 310.8 311.3 288.7 319.9 2.85 11 500 5705 -15.9 -16.4 96 0.5 -16.0 235 57 313.7 314.1 288.9 320.7 2.13 12 450 6491 -21.2 -21.5 97 0.3 -21.2 239 61 316.6 316.9 289.3 321.8 1.53 13 400 7349 -28.0 -28.7 94 0.7 -28.1 239 66 318.6 318.8 289.3 321.7 0.89 14 350 8295 -34.0 -40.9 50 6.9 -34.7 244 76 322.8 322.9 290.0 324.0 0.30 15 300 9359 -40.7 -61.6 9 20.9 -41.5 248 84 328.0 328.0 291.2 328.2 0.03 16 250 10577 -49.0 -64.7 14 15.7 -49.4 250 87 333.3 333.3 292.6 333.4 0.03 17 200 12014 -56.8 -67.1 26 10.3 -56.9 251 92 342.8 342.8 295.0 342.9 0.02 18 150 13815 -61.5 -71.0 27 9.5 -61.6 248 87 364.1 364.1 299.5 364.2 0.02 19 100 16281 -68.4 -77.7 25 9.3 -68.5 256 66 395.6 395.6 304.6 395.6 0.01TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Thanks for posting that....that would certainly be snow, your right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Thanks for posting that....that would certainly be snow, your right... I'm as surprised as you are. This really looks like the Euro from about 48 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I think its possible though. It will be super marginal, but hell what snow/ice event (outside of wedges) isn't marginal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 catch 22 with this next system which cann't be avoided... part of the catch 22 is in a perfect world we would want more cold air ahead of this system... but, as we have seen in past model runs, this would weaken or shear out the system much more quickly it doesn't look as if this upper-low can trend much stronger... if it did, we might could get in a position to where the cold-core within the upper-low manufactured some -2C, -3C to -4Cs at 5000ft... as it stands now, the closer the upper level wave gets to the confluence of the cold to it's north, the more it opens up and dampens out/weakens which means that cold-core within the ULL only weakens very hard for me to be optimistic (even about token flakes) looking at a chart of a weakening shortwave with a very weak cold-core at around 1C to -1C the upward vertical velocity needed to lift moisture into the region where snow could be manufactured just won't be there... looks like a rain event to me even with the trends toward (the Euro from a few days back) a slightly stronger-for-longer system on forecast models we are going to need a stronger (3 or 4 closed-contour) ULL in late January, Feb or March... hopefully we get that at some point and I'm still pulling for the Tennessee Valley because they are far more overdue than anyone... hopefully one comes across and nails all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The 12z GFS has me more and more convinced that an arctic outbreak is coming...it's now getting into the Day 8 range where the major cold invades. The evolution of this seems to be setting up really well...North Carolina is going to get a lot of rain with this first boundary that's coming in...that should get us back to near normal as we get into the middle part of this upcoming week. It's late next weekend and the following Monday (21st) where the 2nd front brings the really cold air. Just looking at how the PV is shifting southward, I can't see how this cold air blast does not sustain itself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 See, this is why people dont take you seriously. The sounding isnt even close for snow: Let me state it one more time. If the twisterdata maps show it, then it is not a far off solution for it to trend better...of course it should NOT be taken verbatim. If you were here with every sounding ob. there would be no discussion. There would be "not even close for snow every time". Figure 1: 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Let me state it one more time. If the twisterdata maps show it, then it is not a far off solution for it to trend better...of course it should NOT be taken verbatim. If you were here with every sounding ob. there would be no discussion. There would be "not even close for snow every time". Figure 1: 12z GFS That's not true at all. Many times soundings a week away will still show snow. Go read what Andy (ColdRainSt8cashhomey) just said and it shows why there really is no point posting them. While I think this MIGHT have some potential a good rule of thumb is that if cold air is marginal and twister is only showing a 1/2 inch or so it's nothing to be excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 catch 22 with this next system which cann't be avoided... part of the catch 22 is in a perfect world we would want more cold air ahead of this system... but, as we have seen in past model runs, this would weaken or shear out the system much more quickly it doesn't look as if this upper-low can trend much stronger... if it did, we might could get in a position to where the cold-core within the upper-low manufactured some -2C, -3C to -4Cs at 5000ft... as it stands now, the closer the upper level wave gets to the confluence of the cold to it's north, the more it opens up and dampens out/weakens which means that cold-core within the ULL only weakens very hard for me to be optimistic (even about token flakes) looking at a chart of a weakening shortwave with a very weak cold-core at around 1C to -1C the upward vertical velocity needed to lift moisture into the region where snow could be manufactured just won't be there... looks like a rain event to me even with the trends toward (the Euro from a few days back) a slightly stronger-for-longer system on forecast models we are going to need a stronger (3 or 4 closed-contour) ULL in late January, Feb or March... hopefully we get that at some point and I'm still pulling for the Tennessee Valley because they are far more overdue than anyone... hopefully one comes across and nails all of us Great disco Andy. What we want to see is a 2 or three contour closed low trekking across the south. That would do the trick. Guess it could still get stronger but a LOT has to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Interestingly enough the usually conservative SV snow maps does have CLT in the 2 inch area and AVN around 4 inches with one little dot of 8 inches just west of AVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Northern Mississippi to go from 70s to winter weather concerns...maybe not as much as the 12z GFS thinks...but could be some freezing rain overhead and the surrounding areas. The only significant ice storm wording I see is coming out of Texas so far...and its still iffy there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 That's not true at all. Many times soundings a week away will still show snow. Go read what Andy (ColdRainSt8cashhomey) just said and it shows why there really is no point posting them. While I think this MIGHT have some potential a good rule of thumb is that if cold air is marginal and twister is only showing a 1/2 inch or so it's nothing to be excited about. More like half a foot for the GA/SC border. Not saying it will happen...but there should be discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Great disco Andy. What we want to see is a 2 or three contour closed low trekking across the south. That would do the trick. Guess it could still get stronger but a LOT has to go right. yeah, I suppose there is a small chance at this being only slightly stronger in the upper-levels... surely the GFS is still playing catch up in shearing this out a bit too quickly and keeping it connected to the northern stream only hope is for the confluence under the first transient cold push to be weaker which would allow this to stay bundled longer before the inevitable weakening... the thing to watch with that is the flow upstream would be more of a WSW-ENE orientation allowing this weak ULL to cut from say Huntsville to central NC instead of across SC (which would surely give me rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 More like half a foot for the GA/SC border. Not saying it will happen...but there should be discussion. [Discussion] That is highly unlikely to verify with that ULL as modeled. [/Discussion] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Not a likely solution...but there on the 12z GFS hour 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Not a likely solution...but there on the 12z GFS hour 120. Lol wow. Move that further S about 100 miles then I'll be happy lol. Most likely won't verify but a possibility as indicated by the 6z and 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 [Discussion] That is highly unlikely to verify with that ULL as modeled. [/Discussion] I agree. Will keep watching. I think it will likely be washed away after this rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Not a likely solution...but there on the 12z GFS hour 120. Bufkit gives AGS all rain. CAE gets 4.5" of snow. This is why you dont trust these(or any) snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Bufkit gives AGS all rain. CAE gets 4.5" of snow. This is why you dont trust these(or any) snow maps. True. Still good enough pictorial representation for me...with what resources I have to share. It's long term anyway, which I why I am not looking at the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Euro is keeping that low pretty potent out to 90 but it still looks like cold air will be problem. Let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1004 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2013 VALID 12Z WED JAN 16 2013 - 12Z SUN JAN 20 2013 REVERTED BACK TO MOSTLY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN, IN THIS CASE THE 00Z/13 ECENS MEAN, FOR THE NEW MEDIUM RANGE PACKAGE. YESTERDAY, THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WAS IN ENOUGH HARMONY WITH ITS MEAN TO BE RELIABLE THROUGH AT LEAST MID PERIOD; BUT TODAY, THE 00Z/13 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WAS SUFFICIENTLY OUT OF SYNC WITH THE MEAN, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, TO PRECLUDE ITS INCORPORATION. THERE HAS BEEN EVEN MORE VOLATILITY RUN-TO-RUN WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS. THE BIG PICTURE STILL FEATURES A GRADUAL INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST. STILL WATCHING A POSSIBLE WAVE EMERGING FROM THE GULF STATES DAY 5 WHICH COULD SEND A ROUND OF RAIN, ICE, AND SNOW THROUGH PARTS OF THE EAST. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 This is what's interesting between 114-120 on the 12Z GFS when the snow is supposed to hit the CAE area: Not too optimistic about this at all though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 @108 Euro looks juicy...2m temps are a problem but 850 line runs north of ATL up to CLT and on to RDU with some good QPF around ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I think some folks are going to like the 12z Euro....850s crash in NC and northernmost SC at hr 108..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Oh no, Euro is giving hope, SLP off the GA coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 BOOM goes the Euro at 114! Nice snow for WNC 2m temps are good and some good qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 12z Euro good run for NC, snow across the state around hr114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 BOOM goes the Euro at 114! Nice snow for WNC 2m temps are good and some good qpf Hate to be IMBY ish.....but does precip make it to east TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Even CLT might be in the money spot on this run. It's very close. WNC probably gets 2 - 4 inches? Tough to tell but this was a great look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Hate to be IMBY ish.....but does precip make it to east TN? What precip is there it's cold enough just pretty light. Looks like maybe a dusting for the southern fringes of eastern TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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