jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Wow, 0Z Doc has very cold Arctic air cold plunging down into the SE US as of day 9, 1/22! It is mainly dry, however, outside of perhaps a few flurries. Funny this about it,its a perfect set up for N/FL,S/GA,SC.I hope they get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 6z coming in a little snowier... hour 48 hour 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 00z Euro and 6z were really not too far off. This still bears watching. The EPS control run was wetter than the 6z GFS but not as cold. The key will be how much cold air can get down here. DGEX was very juicy but no cold air really to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I just looked at the 00z euro and 6z gfs. I don't see a mechanism to lock in the cold. It seems transient from what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I just looked at the 00z euro and 6z gfs. I don't see a mechanism to lock in the cold. It seems transient from what I'm seeing. I think it's safe to say right now that 6z is an outlier for both next weekends storm and the LR. As for the 00z Euro I would say this is a good enough mechanism. Weird for some reason Allan's site was showing the Euro indices for like Jan 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The qpf over the next several days is not getting a lot of play in here with everyone's eye on the cold. If the models verify the Mnts. are going to start off 2013 qiute juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Here is the nam for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Ya'll realize that posting those snow maps is bogus. If you look at the skew t you'll realize that none of that snow over alabama or tennessee actually exists on the model. But carry on with the weeniedom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1245 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2013VALID 12Z WED JAN 16 2013 - 12Z SUN JAN 20 2013THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS STEADFAST DESPITE THE MANYOFF-KEY VOICES FROM THE PEANUT GALLERY OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS. A COLD/DRY AIRMASS SHOULD OVERTAKEMUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND NORTH OF THE GULF ASANOTHER NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TUGS THE CANADIAN VORTEX TOWARD THEGREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THIS SECOND SURGETHROUGH CANADA THOUGH WITH SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES. IF NOTHINGELSE... IT WILL AT LEAST FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER IN THE EAST THOUGHQPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHER PLAINS/GREAT LAKESAND SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Ya'll realize that posting those snow maps is bogus. If you look at the skew t you'll realize that none of that snow over alabama or tennessee actually exists on the model. But carry on with the weeniedom. You are missing the point. If it is showing up then it is not too far off as a possibility. People never fail to keep taking everything verbatim. This is a discussion, not a no it won't happen. ...LOWER MS/TN VLYS...A POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWESTTO THE SOUTHWEST AND A SERN UPPER RIDGE WILL SETUP THE UPPER-LEVELPATTERN OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY FOR TUES. MEANWHILE AT THESURFACE... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE MID-ATLSTATES TO THE DEEP SOUTH/WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A COLD EXPANSIVEPOLAR/ARCTIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A QUICKIMPULSE ALOFT WILL RIDE THE SWRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWAN INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF. SOME OF THISMOISTURE COULD OVERRUN INTO THE SHALLOW AIR MASS BUT MAINLY REMAINALONG THE FRONT/WARM SECTOR... DUE TO THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANTSURFACE WAVE. THUS SOME LIGHT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRNLA/SERN AR TO WRN/CENTRAL TN BUT THE AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BEANYWHERE NEAR .25 INCH AMOUNTS. HOWEVER... ANY FROZEN PRECIP FORTHIS AREA OF THE COUNTRY IS A SIGNIFICANT DEAL AND A LOW PROB OF.25 ICING WILL BE PLACED OVER THE REGION FOR MON. HPC FOLLOWED THEGFS AND ECMWF THROUGHOUT THIS 24 HRS FCST PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 You are missing the point. If it is showing up then it is not too far off as a possibility. People never fail to keep taking everything verbatim. This is a discussion, not a no it won't happen. ...LOWER MS/TN VLYS...A POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWESTTO THE SOUTHWEST AND A SERN UPPER RIDGE WILL SETUP THE UPPER-LEVELPATTERN OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY FOR TUES. MEANWHILE AT THESURFACE... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE MID-ATLSTATES TO THE DEEP SOUTH/WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A COLD EXPANSIVEPOLAR/ARCTIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A QUICKIMPULSE ALOFT WILL RIDE THE SWRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWAN INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF. SOME OF THISMOISTURE COULD OVERRUN INTO THE SHALLOW AIR MASS BUT MAINLY REMAINALONG THE FRONT/WARM SECTOR... DUE TO THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANTSURFACE WAVE. THUS SOME LIGHT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRNLA/SERN AR TO WRN/CENTRAL TN BUT THE AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BEANYWHERE NEAR .25 INCH AMOUNTS. HOWEVER... ANY FROZEN PRECIP FORTHIS AREA OF THE COUNTRY IS A SIGNIFICANT DEAL AND A LOW PROB OF.25 ICING WILL BE PLACED OVER THE REGION FOR MON. HPC FOLLOWED THEGFS AND ECMWF THROUGHOUT THIS 24 HRS FCST PERIOD. Uh...the AFD you posted has nothing to do with the snow map you posted. Those are two different storms. Sorry didn't realize you posted that first map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Well shoot me if I am wrong...but the 48 hour map and these maps verify the AFD meager ice potential early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Uh...the AFD you posted has nothing to do with the snow map you posted. Those are two different storms. Sorry didn't realize you posted that first map. To Wilkesborodude's credit: he originally posted two maps (they've since been removed, apparently). One was 48 hours out and one was 160ish out. So, the AFD does apply to his first map that was showing snow/ice over TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 To Wilkesborodude's credit: he originally posted two maps (they've since been removed, apparently). One was 48 hours out and one was 160ish out. So, the AFD does apply to his first map that was showing snow/ice over TN. Yep. And I was only replying to the guy from TN hint the AFD. Nobody wants to see 48 hour potential, I won't post it. I don't live in TN anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I just looked at the 00z euro and 6z gfs. I don't see a mechanism to lock in the cold. It seems transient from what I'm seeing. It does not appear to be more than a ten day cold outbreak, but I could be wrong. However, it does look like that each piece(though transient) will rotate down through eastern North America making it seem like the cold spell is locked in. In reality, each cold air mass rotates through and the next one follows after a very brief period of moderation - which may be better to produce a good snowstorm. Foothills mentioned this on his website yesterday, and I probably agree - he did not mention duration however. So, there is some truth in saying it is not locked in IMO. However, it may be cold enough that a warm spell is appreciated afterwards. Now, what will be interesting is whether moisture can be transported north or get squashed. In TN, we actually need a bit of a SE ridge to get storms. Will the pattern of the past few months of moisture from the GOM being tapped interact w/ the pattern of cold coming around the 22nd? I don't know and don't see evidence of this yet. One met in TRI is now beating the cold drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 It does not appear to be more than a ten day cold outbreak, but I could be wrong. However, it does look like that each piece(though transient) will rotate down through eastern North America making it seem like the cold spell is locked in. In reality, each cold air mass rotates through and the next one follows after a very brief period of moderation - which may be better to produce a good snowstorm. This makes more sense logically...and perhaps better than a locked in dry cold suppressed storm track for "X" duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 From another Steve this morning :-) http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/page-15#entry1996487 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Yep. And I was only replying to the guy from TN hint the AFD. Nobody wants to see 48 hour potential, I won't post it. I don't live in TN anyway. It's the only map you wont post. You have posted snow maps since nov and not one has verified. There is nothing to get excited about until we are within 72-96 hours. Several mets have discussed that for weeks. Yes looks to be heading in right direction but not there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 FWIW...EURO also showing some meager winter precip early next week. Not a whole lot to discuss...but if the HPC is mentioning we might as well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I too think that if we get to cold and it sticks, your just cold and dry. I too like transient cold that allows a little warm up so it can bring the moisture with it. I think very cold that doesn't loosen its grip will result in cold and dry. Just my opinion. I'm ready for fun and games to begin. Right now its 62 degrees and I just put on shorts to go outside, this is crazy warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Nice ! Also some great disco in that thread !! From another Steve this morning :-) http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/page-15#entry1996487 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 IMO locked in cold is better than transient cold shots. January 2011 is a good example of that. Given the choice of a locked in cold pattern or transient I'd take locked in 10 times out of 10. Jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 IMO locked in cold is better than transient cold shots. January 2011 is a good example of that. Given the choice of a locked in cold pattern or transient I'd take locked in 10 times out of 10. Jmo. Well I guess it depends on how cold we are talking about. I am not sure if Jan. 2011 featured snow storms going into a single digit air-mass or not. - It looks like the NWS is talking about a sig. ice storm...so my meager ice potential comments may be conservative for those to our west. Not sure if it bleeds from Texas to TN or not. HPC does have a 80% chance of ice potential in west TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 So what do you get when the PNA is positive, AO is negative, and the NAO is neutral or slightly positive? **over-running events or souther sliders? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Last week it was indicating the AO as negative, PNA as neutral, and the NAO as slightly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 IMO locked in cold is better than transient cold shots. January 2011 is a good example of that. Given the choice of a locked in cold pattern or transient I'd take locked in 10 times out of 10. Jmo. Marietta, I don't even think a transient strong cold shot in late Jan. like what has been modeled is even close to a 100% probability. Although my confidence in at least a transient potent cold shot is increasing, it could still turn out to be a mirage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 6z coming in a little snowier... hour 120 Interesting enough for conversation......still too far out to get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 IMO locked in cold is better than transient cold shots. January 2011 is a good example of that. Given the choice of a locked in cold pattern or transient I'd take locked in 10 times out of 10. Jmo. I agree with this, especially if the configuration of the ridge/trough complex over the US is aligned right. On another note, at this point it seems premature to know whether or not a cold shot, which is more than a week away, will be transient or sustained. You could make a case for both, based on things like indicies, historical evidence, and teleconnections, but what should not be done is to base any conclusions on a 240+ hour model prog that might show in and out cold. If you remember back to a couple of winters ago, the modeling kept showing long range warm-ups that never came. They often show cool downs that never come also. So it's probably a good idea to give them some time to figure out the pattern before declaring a cold snap or cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 6z coming in a little snowier... hour 48 hour 120 See, this is why people dont take you seriously. The sounding isnt even close for snow: Date: 5 day AVN valid 6Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: KAKHLatitude: 35.20Longitude: -81.15-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1000 221 3.8 2.4 90 1.4 3.1 48 6 276.9 277.7 276.3 289.3 4.53 1 1000 222 4.8 2.0 82 2.8 3.6 49 8 278.0 278.7 276.7 290.1 4.43 2 950 640 3.5 -3.4 61 6.9 0.7 39 13 280.8 281.3 276.5 289.6 3.13 3 900 1076 0.5 -6.2 61 6.7 -2.0 13 11 282.0 282.5 276.5 289.6 2.67 4 850 1533 -0.8 -17.7 26 17.0 -5.5 2 13 285.3 285.5 276.0 288.7 1.12 5 800 2017 -1.0 -26.0 13 25.0 -6.9 359 14 290.1 290.2 277.6 292.0 0.57 6 750 2531 -1.4 -19.1 24 17.7 -6.5 323 11 295.1 295.3 280.7 298.6 1.12 7 700 3079 -2.6 -13.3 44 10.7 -6.2 279 15 299.6 300.0 283.7 305.8 1.96 8 650 3663 -5.7 -10.7 68 5.0 -7.5 270 22 302.5 303.0 285.5 310.6 2.60 9 600 4287 -8.7 -12.3 75 3.6 -9.9 263 26 306.1 306.5 286.7 313.9 2.47 10 550 4958 -12.3 -17.7 64 5.4 -13.9 255 33 309.5 309.8 287.1 315.1 1.72 11 500 5678 -17.7 -22.6 65 4.9 -18.8 253 36 311.5 311.7 287.3 315.7 1.25 12 450 6459 -22.0 -32.9 37 10.9 -23.9 268 37 315.5 315.6 287.9 317.4 0.53 13 400 7321 -23.9 -52.5 5 28.6 -26.6 270 49 323.9 323.9 290.0 324.2 0.07 14 350 8283 -31.0 -55.8 7 24.8 -32.7 256 66 327.0 327.0 290.9 327.2 0.06 15 300 9353 -40.7 -62.1 8 21.4 -41.5 249 73 327.9 328.0 291.2 328.1 0.03 16 250 10567 -50.3 -67.6 11 17.3 -50.7 250 80 331.3 331.3 292.1 331.3 0.02 17 200 11991 -59.0 -65.8 41 6.8 -59.1 249 90 339.3 339.3 294.1 339.4 0.03 18 150 13770 -64.5 -69.9 47 5.4 -64.5 249 97 359.1 359.1 298.5 359.1 0.02 19 100 16231 -65.9 -77.6 18 11.7 -66.0 250 82 400.4 400.4 305.3 400.4 0.01TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 not really a trend, this far out its just eye candy but....12z closes off the ULL in previous frames in the deep south, sucking in cold enough air for some snows in higher elevations. obv very marginal and soundings prob show no snow for anyone but the mts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 GFS is VERY close to showing some snow over SC. 2m temps are somewhat of an issue though, as always, about 36 (ish) prolly some rain/snow mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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