January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensembles loom nice. Fishel cold snap still afloat

[burgertime]

18z keeps that ULL stout and doesn't damping out the s/w but it tracks along the apps. Drops some snow across TN.

[Tacoma]

Woohoo, after day 9 it shows it getting colder, it's a miracle! It's a cold look on day 10.

yea but I hope we have a couple of storms come on thru after the cold arrives.  not cold and dry.

[packbacker]

Just saw Matt on TV showing the Euro, fun to watch

[franklin NCwx]

18z keeps that ULL stout and doesn't damping out the s/w but it tracks along the apps. Drops some snow across TN.

vortex is much farther north this run

[kanc2001]

will be in ATL on biz first week of Feb.  Good timing or still torch?

[FallsLake]

Might be good timing. If we can get the pattern to lock, the cold could continue into the at least the first week of Feburary,

 

For what its worth (18z GFS day 16):

[ncwinterwxman]

Agreed.  This is why I was saying earlier for everyone not to get their panties in a wad over the terrible looks of the models three and four days ago and to ignore that threat a couple of weeks ago that everyone was so sure was going to produce for the southeast when it didn't (when you have to time a phase to get wintry weather, it rarely if ever works out...the events that are the best producers for the southeast are the GOM lows that ride up the coast and the overrunning events)...you just have to be patient to wait for the right pattern   I really like the looks of where this pattern is headed right now and the fact that we are heading into the climatologically best time of the year makes me all the more confident that snow is on the way for the southeast.  I haven't seen a pattern evolution like this in several years...hang on folks...its going to be a long second half of the winter...

Exactly. Comparing this to the past couple of weeks is just a false analogy. If you can't excited about this look then I don't know what else you want to see in the LR, just don't even bother with this thread since the LR is basically all it is discussing. 

[DaculaWeather]

Birmingham AFD

 

ALTHOUGH IT IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST...THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTING A BIG PATTERN SHIFT THAT MAY
ULTIMATELY BRING A CHANGE TO SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS IN THE 1/23 TO
1/25 TIME FRAME.

[burgertime]

We might be in for a little surprise on the 00z GFS tonight. That s/w is pretty juiced and staying south. Not quite what you want to see but could turn into something better.

[Marion_NC_WX]

fairly close for the North Carolina mountains/foothills at 114 but it's a just miss.

[burgertime]

It stays a little too positively tilted to really get going. Has a low popping off the NC/SC coast around hour 120 but it's weak and there isn't enough cold air anyways. Let's see if the Vodka cold comes this go round in the LR.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It stays a little too positively tilted to really get going. Has a low popping off the NC/SC coast around hour 120 but it's weak and there isn't enough cold air anyways. Let's see if the Vodka cold comes this go round in the LR.

yea. if a piece broke off from the huge vortex and dove in on the backside, could be something. i cant take a run verbatim since models have a tendency to back off the cold as we close in.... and im not sure how accurate they are depicting how the vortex behaves and what, if any, shortwave breaks off of it.

[burgertime]

yea. if a piece broke off from the huge vortex and dove in on the backside, could be something. i cant take a run verbatim since models have a tendency to back off the cold as we close in.... and im not sure how accurate they are depicting how the vortex behaves and what, if any, shortwave breaks off of it.

 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong as well, I think a big part of it as well is that energy that comes down to phase with it before it really gets rolling east. If that is a little bit late getting to the party we might be in business with a nice ULL coming across. You missed 2009 but for many that got our mouths wet over an ULL. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

its too strong, absorbs everything around it...like a freakin black hole. no shortwave in the SW. and the cold is concentrated around the lakes and the NE.

[burgertime]

Pretty big diff. at 5h as well. Probably not going to be a run of historic cold but we shall see.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Pretty big diff. at 5h as well. Probably not going to be a run of historic cold but we shall see.

 

 

Looking pretty good at 192 and 216...IMO

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong as well, I think a big part of it as well is that energy that comes down to phase with it before it really gets rolling east. If that is a little bit late getting to the party we might be in business with a nice ULL coming across. You missed 2009 but for many that got our mouths wet over an ULL. 

yea, early on in the 72 to 84hr range the northern stream is too quick and kinda squashes the southern wave but i think if were to lag behind and phase, we look at a rainstorm? not sure... but hr 108+ looks interesting if another shortwave could dig from the N, problem is there is nothing there. im still trying to get familiar with SE winter events...deff a diff breed then the NE.

[burgertime]

Wow this is still a major arctic outbreak. From 252 - 300 temps never make it our of the 30's for all of NC and most of SC. 

[Bevo]

yea, early on in the 72 to 84hr range the northern stream is too quick and kinda squashes the southern wave but i think if were to lag behind and phase, we look at a rainstorm? not sure... but hr 108+ looks interesting if another shortwave could dig from the N, problem is there is nothing there. im still trying to get familiar with SE winter events...deff a diff breed then the NE.

 

Oh but you haven't scratched the surface yet  .  You will become acutely familiar with phenomena such as the "Snow Triangle" and the "Upstate Rule" (Str8cashhomey is best friends with the second one).  Good to have you here btw.

[burgertime]

yea, early on in the 72 to 84hr range the northern stream is too quick and kinda squashes the southern wave but i think if were to lag behind and phase, we look at a rainstorm? not sure... but hr 108+ looks interesting if another shortwave could dig from the N, problem is there is nothing there. im still trying to get familiar with SE winter events...deff a diff breed then the NE.

 

I think in this instance and again someone can correct me if I am wrong, the s/w would cutoff and roll east a potent ULL. You would want to be on the NW side of the ULL as it gets some good dynamic cooling. Again check out March 2009 around here. That one was a whooper. 

[packbacker]

That run was cold from day 9 on but it was also bone dry 

 

[Bevo]

To me, the look has evolved into what you would prefer to have going into February.  Most of our chances are thread the needle anyway, contingent on perfect timing.  If we can somehow establish a heavy presence of cold air, and keep an active southern stream, at some point our odds go up in favor of an actual event that isn't so reliant on impeccable timing.

[ncwinterwxman]

I agree...these thread the needle waiting for the phase events are getting old...bring on the overrunning GOM and Miller A events baby!

To me, the look has evolved into what you would prefer to have going into February.  Most of our chances are thread the needle anyway, contingent on perfect timing.  If we can somehow establish a heavy presence of cold air, and keep an active southern stream, at some point our odds go up in favor of an actual event that isn't so reliant on impeccable timing.

[BullCityWx]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Oh but you haven't scratched the surface yet  .  You will become acutely familiar with phenomena such as the "Snow Triangle" and the "Upstate Rule" (Str8cashhomey is best friends with the second one).  Good to have you here btw.

thanks, i hope to bring the good stuff down with me....and maybe break this snow triangle in the process.

 

at the very least, the cold is coming with me which is a start.

 

will be interesting the next couple days if guidance stays on track with the coldest air on this side of the globe and if we can squeeze anything out of it.

[dsaur]

To me, the look has evolved into what you would prefer to have going into February.  Most of our chances are thread the needle anyway, contingent on perfect timing.  If we can somehow establish a heavy presence of cold air, and keep an active southern stream, at some point our odds go up in favor of an actual event that isn't so reliant on impeccable timing.

  What tickled me was that bit of light rain coming into Ala. encountering the cold air, and saying naw, let me try Fla. out   My guess is the models are seeing cold air, but probably not record cold, so we could get lucky and have it just cold enough in the SE to fight the waa, but not so cold it scares it away.  On the other hand, if the models are finally getting something right in the long range, then we get some polar air, and sunny cold days...which is great in lieu of precip into cold air, but just not as exciting in a sledding kind of way, lol.  I won't get excited about winter things until I see the re enforcing cold on the maps.  One cold snap won't do, won't do at all.  We need cold coming in on off and on 'til April, just to balance out the last few months...and I don't know what balances out last winter, but it needs to be better that what we've been seeing.  Wall to wall cold next winter under double moons would be a nice start!!  T

[Snowless in Carrollton]

  What tickled me was that bit of light rain coming into Ala. encountering the cold air, and saying naw, let me try Fla. out   My guess is the models are seeing cold air, but probably not record cold, so we could get lucky and have it just cold enough in the SE to fight the waa, but not so cold it scares it away.  On the other hand, if the models are finally getting something right in the long range, then we get some polar air, and sunny cold days...which is great in lieu of precip into cold air, but just not as exciting in a sledding kind of way, lol.  I won't get excited about winter things until I see the re enforcing cold on the maps.  One cold snap won't do, won't do at all.  We need cold coming in on off and on 'til April, just to balance out the last few months...and I don't know what balances out last winter, but it needs to be better that what we've been seeing.  Wall to wall cold next winter under double moons would be a nice start!!  T

I don't think there's any way this winter will end up below normal in terms of temps. We are half way through meteorological winter and we would need temps WELL below normal the next few weeks to even get back to normal for the winter.

[GaWx]

Wow, 0Z Doc has very cold Arctic air cold plunging down into the SE US as of day 9, 1/22! It is mainly dry, however, outside of perhaps a few flurries.

[WXinCanton]

Thats a nice combo right there