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January Pattern and Storm Discussion II


Cold Rain

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Clippers usually don't get it done outside the mountains in NC and SC. BUT , if the polar vortex is as far south as the models are showing,then the clippers would be forced way south.maybe across northern gulf states into most of the Carolinas.I'll take a robust clipper with a 2-4 swath of snow!

If this does set up like its forecast to does that open the door for Alberta Clippers? Serious question...haven't seen a strong clipper in a while!

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I can't remember the year but we had highs for a few days from 10-20 degrees with no snow on ground.  I think it was 1993-1994?  Does anybody remember.  it was a true artic blast like this one possibly coming sounds like

 

I think the both Feb 94 and early Feb 96 outbreaks featured this.

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Dr. No. lives up to his nickname on next week's event -- southern stream energy is strung out, never consolodates. To make matters worse, onset of cold air appears to be delayed (again). Bulk of the arctic air at Day 7 still up in Canada.

 

Yeah, real shocker there...maybe by end of January we can start to see some evidence of impending/sustained cold inside 10 days.

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I can understand some bit of skepticism, but imo, this looks like a pretty straightforward pattern change that is occurring.  The devil will be in the details these next few days, but for now enjoy the January thaw, because it looks like things could become real interesting these next few weeks ;) 

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Which is exactly the timeframe that's been discussed for 3 days now?

 

4 days ago this is what people posted upon seeing the 12z Euro run...

 

12z Tuesday run - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38406-january-pattern-and-storm-discussion/page-49#entry1986970

 

2 days ago this is what people posted upon seeing the Euro...

 

0z Thursday run - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38406-january-pattern-and-storm-discussion/page-54#entry1989507

 

I am sure todays 12z Euro run is correct with showing the cold arriving on Jan 21-22nd

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OK, I am getting a bit more convinced about some of the coldest air in at least a few years, still would like to see the Euro ensembles come a bit more on board but it seems likely that the NE will get a really big cold shot in a week or so, the question down here is will we get a "normal" dose of cold, or will there be one where we get down to more historic levels (lows below 10 in ATL).

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I truly believe the SSW is the catalyst for what is about to happen. Obviously other pieces will need to fall into just the right places to get what everyone wants but it's already started to change. Winter is coming, this is not last winter.

Here we go.

 

STRATALERT TOKYO 11 JAN 2013 0500 UTC

30-HPA ANALYSIS 1200UTC 09 JAN

1. COLD MINUS 77 58N 102W, COLD MINUS 73 50N 52E, WARM MINUS 32 65N 138E, LOW 220 68N 92W, LOW 233 60N 77E, HIGH 370 48N 168W.

2. CONDITIONS AT 30-HPA HEIGHT FIELD,

POLAR VORTEX SPLIT INTO TWO OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND OVER WESTERN SIBERIA. COLD AIR LIES OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND NEAR WESTERN RUSSIA. WARM AIR LIES OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. IN THE ZONAL MEAN FIELD, EASTERLY WIND IS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE STRATOSHPHERE OVER THE POLAR REGION.

3. STRATALERT EXISTS.

MAJOR WARMING HAS CONTINUED AT 30-HPA. TEMPERATURE NEAR THE ARCTIC COAST OF CENTRAL SIBERIA INCREASED WITH MAXIMUM 38 DEGREES FROM 2 JAN TO 9 JAN 2013. REMARK: THE HEIGHT DATA SHOULD BE READ IN DECAMETERS ADDING 20 KILOMETERS.=

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I saw -9 in the 80s, so if all the rain is going to Key West and Cuba, at least let me enjoy a new record cold.  -10 or lower, or just give me 30 and a weak gom low, thank you very much.  If it gets too cold, it gets too dry, and we'll have to wait for the space between shots.  Of course, I like suppressed, and if it gets only moderately bitter cold, I get a chance at a central Ga. smasher, while the rest of you cry...and we don't what that, lol...but if it gets too cold that may be what comes, if anything falls at all north of Daytona.  Sn/ip from Hampton south to Jville, lol.  That has a nice ring to it :) T

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I can understand some bit of skepticism, but imo, this looks like a pretty straightforward pattern change that is occurring.  The devil will be in the details these next few days, but for now enjoy the January thaw, because it looks like things could become real interesting these next few weeks ;)

 

I agree.  The potential has been there this winter, but the PNA would not cooperate.  Also, it's not like there hasn't been record cold on the other side of the globe - speaking of China.  The potential is cetainly there and is moving closer to reality.  What will be interesting is if a big storm will lead us into the pattern change.

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RAH long term discussion:

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SATURDAY...

<last paragraph>
DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ACROSS THE
CONUS...THE CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE HEMISPHERIC-SCALE...AND HAVE SUGGESTED FOR THE PAST 7-10 DAYS
NOW THAT A STRONG AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NOAM IN POSITIVE PNA-FASHION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM A TROUGH EAST OF HAWAII
WILL UNDERCUT THIS RIDGE AND EMERGE INVOF THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...AND ACCORDINGLY POSE A RISK FOR A
COUPLE OF BOUTS OF CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GOM TO THE GULF STREAM
NEXT WEEK - PERHAPS THE FIRST LEGITIMATE OPPORTUNITY (OR TWO) FOR
WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS SEASON.


 

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Never seen RAH speculate about winter weather. Thanks FallsLake.

 

Exactly. Comparing this to the past couple of weeks is just a false analogy. If you can't excited about this look then I don't know what else you want to see in the LR, just don't even bother with this thread since the LR is basically all it is discussing. 

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Exactly. Comparing this to the past couple of weeks is just a false analogy. If you can't excited about this look then I don't know what else you want to see in the LR, just don't even bother with this thread since the LR is basically all it is discussing. 

 

 

+1 Burger absolutely the best look we have seen in a long time!!! :tomato:

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Exactly. Comparing this to the past couple of weeks is just a false analogy. If you can't excited about this look then I don't know what else you want to see in the LR, just don't even bother with this thread since the LR is basically all it is discussing. 

I said the day 10 looked great on the Euro, just like it did 4 days ago. :-)

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+1 Burger absolutely the best look we have seen in a long time!!! :tomato:

Yeah, I usually never mention anything in the long range to the family (don't want to get anyone's hopes up) but, I told the wife that cold is coming and next week and we need to prepare. I made a list: check anti-freeze in the cars, cover the outdoor faucets and buy ice-melt for the driveway. :shiver:  :snowman:

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