January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[Cold Rain]

With the other thread at 54 pages, we'll start a fresh one in order to account for the massive growth that will happen when the cold and snow comes later this month.

 

So, to begin, let's take a look at a hand-picked selection of the latest guidance (and of course, since I disdain warmth in the Winter, we'll just gloss right over the next few days of massive, record-breaking warmth, at least in the initial post):

 

First, here is the 192 0Z GFS ENS Mean NH 500mb Height Anomaly map:

 

 

Next, we have the 192 0Z GGEM ENS Mean NH 500mb Height Anomaly map:

 

 

And, finally, we have the 192 0Z Euro ENS Mean NH 500mb Height map:

 

 

Now, here is the UKMET MJO forecast:

 

 

And the GEFS AO chart:

 

 

The GEFS NAO chart:

 

 

And last, but not least, the GEFS PNA chart:

 

 

We also have the CFS and the Euro Weeklies (at least for another few hours) indicating blocking, and colder weather as we head later into the month, and of course, we can't forget the extensive stratospheric warming event that is now underway.  For right now at least, things look pretty good as we work toward the end of the month and on into February.  Hopefully, Winter is about to begin in the Southeast....

[packfan98]

Don't forget to read the last few pages of the first January Mid/Long Range thread from overnight if you have not.  Great discussion from some intellegent folks about the pattern change, SSW event and MJO. 

[burgertime]

Matthew East nailed it with his concern about the PV pushing any system into oblivion. All eyes should be on that moving forward. We'll need to thread the needle with any systems coming up or it could end up like we did with Jan of 2010. Had to go back to the archives with this one. This is an image of the Euro from that cold outbreak. While this is much more severe than what the Euro showed if you look at the red line that's the path storms took during that roughly 2 week outbreak. It was just cold and dry. 

[DaculaWeather]

Anomalies for week 3 and 4

 

[EmersonGA]

January 2010 was cool in its own way.  While I did not enjoy the massive power bill or having to constantly drip my faucets it was neat to see Lake Allatoona freeze over.  The ice was so thick in some spots that someone actually had a manhole cover out on the ice at Kellogg Creek.  We also had a dusting of snow stick around for quite awhile.  I would love to get snow but I would be fine with a very cold but dry outbreak.  If nothing else it can knock back the fireants.

[Brick Tamland]

Cold and dry is just miserable and a waste. It's not fun unless you have some snow to go along with it.

[Cold Rain]

I'm happy to see suppression.  That means cold.  And it also gives us some wiggle room for systems to come north.

[msuwx]

Here is my post from the now-deceased thread....

 

Regarding that system toward the end of next week, I would be concerned about the possibility of this thing getting crushed to oblivion due to the polar vortex sitting there north of the Great Lakes moreso than it trending too warm for most. It's at least just as big of a concern. 

 

Hello, polar vortex:

 

And yes, the Canadian did look nice...

[Tacoma]

no suppression please.  I  get excited when it gets cold and we see a storm coming across  the gulf of mexico and all of a sudden the met on tv says the storm will be suppressed to the south.  That Hurts.  No suppression PLEASE.   We don't want an arctic outbreak that strong, just cold enough is all we need so the storms will head across the gulf coast states around the bin and up the east coast.

[griteater]

Stout block here...

 

 

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/594/ggem.png/'>

[Cold Rain]

Stout block here...

 

 

 

That looks a little nippy.

[BrierCreekWx]

A 240 hour forecast is absolutely no reason for excitement or concern. A common theme in all the models is the strong southeast ridge over the Carribean. Regardless of what anyone else says, as long as that feature remains, the southeast is not going to be in a favorable winter weather pattern.

[GreensboroWx]

A 240 hour forecast is absolutely no reason for excitement or concern. A common theme in all the models is the strong southeast ridge over the Carribean. Regardless of what anyone else says, as long as that feature remains, the southeast is not going to be in a favorable winter weather pattern.

 

Many of the forecasts are within 240hrs now, anyway. 

 

By your same assumption, who is to say the modeling out to 240hrs has the correct placement of the SE ridge?

 

Yes, you could be correct, but a lot of indications are starting to favor cold weather returning. 

[BrierCreekWx]

Many of the forecasts are within 240hrs now, anyway. 

 

By your same assumption, who is to say the modeling out to 240hrs has the correct placement of the SE ridge?

 

Yes, you could be correct, but a lot of indications are starting to favor cold weather returning. 

The ridge has been a permanent fixture this entire winter season. I think a lot of people are missing the forest for the trees here. The ridge is something we have to contend with often in the winter in the southeast, and the fact it isn't going away tells us something.

[packfan98]

I have a question.  Historically, what will weaken a SE ridge or move it out?  I'm guessing that a strong artic boundary COULD push it back.  It looks like there is a fine line here in the SE about how far south the Artic Air plunges.  At 850, there is not many miles between the 0, -2,-4, -6 lines on the modeling.  I would think a 50-100 mile north or south shift on the final location of the artic boundary would make a huge difference here in the SE.

[nrhardin]

I definitely agree about the SE ridge. It's been a quasi-permanent fixture all winter. If arctic source air starts to move down into the plains and midwest, which seems likely at this point, I think we will see a gradual eastward and southward displacement of the SE ridge. Physically this makes sense, as the much colder and denser air can effectively beat the ridge down.

 

If a piece of the polar vortex moves into the GL region, as shown by msuwx, then I think the SE ridge will be even further suppressed. I'm not sold on crazy cold coming to fruition for central NC by any means, but if we can get these things to happen we are at least on the right track.

[GreensboroWx]

The ridge has been a permanent fixture this entire winter season. I think a lot of people are missing the forest for the trees here. The ridge is something we have to contend with often in the winter in the southeast, and the fact it isn't going away tells us something.

 

Actually, its a feature now, but wasn't as strong back in late dec/early jan during out last cold spell.

 

I think it's going to get pushed out, though, during the coming weeks. 

[FallsLake]

A 240 hour forecast is absolutely no reason for excitement or concern. A common theme in all the models is the strong southeast ridge over the Carribean. Regardless of what anyone else says, as long as that feature remains, the southeast is not going to be in a favorable winter weather pattern.

What about the extent of the cold air. (as others have stated) Would this not allow the cold to push even farther into (..under..) the ridge? **sombody else mentioned a SE ridge may actually help if everything comes together right. Heatmiser vs coldmiser --you want to be right in the middle. 

[rduwx]

I have a question.  Historically, what will weaken a SE ridge or move it out?  I'm guessing that a strong artic boundary COULD push it back.  It looks like there is a fine line here in the SE about how far south the Artic Air plunges.  At 850, there is not many miles between the 0, -2,-4, -6 lines on the modeling.  I would think a 50-100 mile north or south shift on the final location of the artic boundary would make a huge difference here in the SE.

Same question here...It seems w/ the position of the PV, the SE ridge would have to be pushed south.

[DaculaWeather]

I've got a history of all the daily weather maps that go way back so you can see where the SE ridge was during the cold blast that we've had.

Here's 2010 but you can choose what year you want. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_surface_maps_2010.php

The individual maps are clickable for a larger view

 

And actually, 1871 to 2003 are here

[GaStorm]

I would think the ridge may actually benefit the SE if some severe cold comes down. The last thing we want is cold and dry.

[DaculaWeather]

There's a fine line with the SE ridge in the winter. You want enough of a ridge to keep the storms from traveling too far south, but not so far north that we don't get the cold. As always, it's going to be a tightrope for us in the SE.  

[packbacker]

Dacula - great page, another bookmark from your site!

 

Hmmmm....

 

 

 

0z Euro ENS

 

[BrierCreekWx]

If a piece of the polar vortex moves into the GL region, as shown by msuwx, then I think the SE ridge will be even further suppressed. I'm not sold on crazy cold coming to fruition for central NC by any means, but if we can get these things to happen we are at least on the right track.

I agree with this statement, and with the key being in the ifs. This has been modeled several times this winter at this time range, but never verified. Why? The southeast ridge. Unless the MJO trends stronger, I don't see anything to drive a pattern shift to a different result.

[nrhardin]

Independent of the MJO, the SSW causing the polar vortex to split may also work in our favor. With the event already taking place, this could also act to force part of the vortex southward. There is agreement in the southward displacement across several models although to varying degrees. I do think we will see the SE ridge displaced south and eastward, though the extent is up for discussion. Obviously a strong MJO wave propagating into phases 8,1,2 would be awesome too.

[Bevo]

I agree with this statement, and with the key being in the ifs. This has been modeled several times this winter at this time range, but never verified. Why? The southeast ridge. Unless the MJO trends stronger, I don't see anything to drive a pattern shift to a different result.

 

As much as I would love to get some cold air this far south and have a typical shot at southern snow, this trend has consistently trumped the long to mid range trends.

 

I do see the possibility of much denser air sinking far enough to affect it, but as I have stated before - it's hard to ignore the one trend that continues to beat the house.  For the record, I'm rooting madly to see it happen.  But I wouldn't forecast a cold turn at this point - not yet.  That is just me, of course. 

[DaculaWeather]

Based on what I'm reading, the MJO might rapidly progress to Phase 8 over the next week or two. Some of the MJO models are already hinting at this.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

[Bevo]

Based on what I'm reading, the MJO might rapidly progress to Phase 8 over the next week or two. Some of the MJO models are already hinting at this.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

 

You really do have a quality site my friend.

 

I am curious though - primarily because I am not well educated on the MJO - as to what would be interpreted as "hints" when looking at those models.

 

I'm seriously serious.  I really don't know.

[GaWx]

MAJOR Arctic surge again on 12Z GFS  Midwest

[tnweathernut]

Based on what I'm reading, the MJO might rapidly progress to Phase 8 over the next week or two. Some of the MJO models are already hinting at this.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

 

I agree strongly.  One model has it rip roaring through 7 on it's way to 8 and another has it dying in 8.  Really going to be interesting to watch and see what we can learn over the coming few weeks.