Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Winds will be offshore, so no lake influence on this side of the lake. LM temperatures: http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/michigan/7day/m4/Jan10/2013_Jan10_228EDT.gif wow..Had not looked at them in a while. Figured it would be upper 30s/40.. This one is even warmer. Probably a bit off though i am guessing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Oh and good luck to those to the W/NW. Pretty much a rap here. Looking like mostly rain with perhaps some flurries/sleet/zr at the end.. blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 wow..Had not looked at them in a while. Figured it would be upper 30s/40.. This one is even warmer. Probably a bit off though i am guessing? Yeah there's significant difference between the contour maps and that plot. Warmest readings I could find on the contour maps were about 42 between here and Holland. Southern end of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yeah there's significant difference between the contour maps and that plot. Warmest readings I could find on the contour maps were about 42 between here and Holland. Southern end of the lake. Not sure why it posted the bottom temps? Hoping this is the surface. Stupid forum wont let me remove/edit out that image.. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Nam looks like it forms a deformation zone on the backside near kc for once, but it weakens as it heads ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Oh and good luck to those to the W/NW. Pretty much a rap here. Looking like mostly rain with perhaps some flurries/sleet/zr at the end.. blah Pretty much what I was saying earlier. Yesterday it was missing to the southeast...today the local forecast is a mixed bag changing to snow showers. Can not win. 18Z NAM looked good, but now looks like junk in terms of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Pretty much what I was saying earlier. Yesterday it was missing to the southeast...today the local forecast is a mixed bag changing to snow showers. Can not win. 18Z NAM looked good, but now looks like junk in terms of snow. DUDE you are still in the thick of it. EVERYONE nw of Grand Rapids is still in play. SE of there no go. What could potentially screw you is the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 DUDE you are still in the thick of it. EVERYONE nw of Grand Rapids is still in play. SE of there no go. What could potentially screw you is the lake. Why do you say that? The 00Z NAM now has us getting ice pellets the entire time, the SREFs show the snow northwest, the GFS has us right on the edge. What do you see that I am not seeing? If the 00Z NAM is correct, Chicago will get snow, while my area will be the only area in the Midwest to still be waiting for an actual snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Why do you say that? The 00Z NAM now has us getting ice pellets the entire time, the SREFs show the snow northwest, the GFS has us right on the edge. What do you see that I am not seeing? If the 00Z NAM is correct, Chicago will get snow, while my area will be the only area in the Midwest to still be waiting for an actual snow event. Actually there's not much snow for Chicago on the NAM. A good deal of it is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Why do you say that? The 00Z NAM now has us getting ice pellets the entire time, the SREFs show the snow northwest, the GFS has us right on the edge. What do you see that I am not seeing? If the 00Z NAM is correct, Chicago will get snow, while my area will be the only area in the Midwest to still be waiting for an actual snow event. No one has been screwed relative to climo more than your area, but to be fair, I highly doubt Chicago gets more snow Sunday than you got Dec 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Why do you say that? The 00Z NAM now has us getting ice pellets the entire time, the SREFs show the snow northwest, the GFS has us right on the edge. What do you see that I am not seeing? If the 00Z NAM is correct, Chicago will get snow, while my area will be the only area in the Midwest to still be waiting for an actual snow event. You would get sleet in the beginning off the new NAM, but then go over to all snow. Column cools enough around 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 NAM really doesn't have much snow anywhere at least per the wxcaster maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 No one has been screwed relative to climo more than your area, but to be fair, I highly doubt Chicago gets more snow Sunday than you got Dec 26th. You would get sleet in the beginning off the new NAM, but then go over to all snow. Column cools enough around 36 hours. Hmm, Chicago appears to be snow...must be in the middle layers. Geos, there isn't much precip. left after 36. It is looking like another inch or less event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 NAM really doesn't have much snow anywhere at least per the wxcaster maps. Yeah, it doesn't really look good at all for snow. It has a lot of warm air being mixed in. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Hmm, Chicago appears to be snow...must be in the middle layers. Geos, there isn't much precip. left after 36. It is looking like another inch or less event. You looking at the updated maps? This is hr 36 There is some sleet issues close to here. I'm not putting all my eggs in the NAM basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 You looking at the updated maps? This is hr 36 There's little precip after 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=nam&run=00&fhr=16&field=acctype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 There's little precip after 36hrs. It awful all around. Setting up to be one of those pitiful transition events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Hmm, Chicago appears to be snow...must be in the middle layers. Geos, there isn't much precip. left after 36. It is looking like another inch or less event. Yep, warm layer is above 850 mb. Looking at 850 mb temps is very deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 NAM really doesn't have much snow anywhere at least per the wxcaster maps. pretty much the same on intstantwx maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 First call for Chicago - 0.6" sleet, 0.5" snow for a total of 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 New RGEM looks similar in placement to the 12z, but a little lighter on precip amts in the cold air it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO GRIDS TOMORROW NIGHT FOR PRECIP TYPE. 18ZSREF AND 00Z WRF-NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE WARMLAYER ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODEST AND HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ONTHE MAGNITUIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...BOTH OF WHICHSHOULD RESULT IN A LESSER (ALBEIT NOT ZERO) THREAT OF FREEZINGRAIN/ICING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE (TO VARYING DEGREES) ARATHER IMPRESSIVE BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UPOVER THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING AS WE GET INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCEREGION OF 150KT+ JET. BESIDES THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALEFORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE...ALSOCONCERNED ABOUT THE LACK OF STABILITY PRESENT WITH THE FORCINGWITH WRF-NAM TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOWSTRONGLY NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV VALUES...INDICATIVE OF A HIGHERPOTENTIAL OF EITHER UPRIGHT OR SLANTWISE CONVECTION FORMING ANDLEADING TO LOCALLY MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION.INTIALLY...EXPECT A MASSIVE VIRGA STORM TO DEVELOP IN THE EVENINGAS DRY LOW/MID LEVELS BECOME SATURATED FROM THE TOP-DOWN...BUTONCE SATURATION OCCURS COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVYPRECIPITATION WHERE EVER THE FRONTOGENTICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP BANDSETS UP. P-TYPE IS TRICKY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTINGSNOW EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...AND ALL RAIN ABOUT SE HALF OF THE CWAWITH A LARGE ZONE IN BETWEEN WHERE SOME SORT OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEETSMORGASBORD COULD OCCUR. WITH TEMP PROFILES PROGGED TO HUG THEFREEZING LINE OVER SUCH A DEEP LAYER P-TYPE COULD EVEN END UPBEING INFLUENCED BY PRECIP INTENSITY...WITH THE MORE INTENSECONVECTIVE PRECIP LEADING TO A SLIP OVER TO ALL SNOW. GENERALLYSPEAKING...BETTER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LOOKS TO LIE WELL ABOVETHE STRONGEST ASCENT AND WITH TEMPS PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHATMARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATION (ESPECIALLY INITIALLY) OVER ALL BUT FARNW COUNTIES THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ALLTHAT LARGE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIKELY SHORT DURATION OF THEEVENT.DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THEPRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OFACCUMULATION IN SPOTS WILL ISSUE AN SPS THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHTTHE THREAT. AT THIS DISTANCE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST FAVORED AREAFOR A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WOULD BE FROM NORTH/NORTHWESTBURBS WEST INTO NC IL...BUT GIVEN WE TALKING ABOUT A MESOSCALEBAND OF SNOW POTENTIALLY SETTING...THE PREDICTABILITY OVER 24HOURS OUT OF NAILING THE LOCATION DOWN TO THE COUNTY LEVEL IS NOTOVERLY HIGH SO STAY TUNED...IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 There's little precip after 36hrs. Nevermind I forgot that the precipitation comes before the temperature drop on the maps. So we got the EURO/GGEM/RGEM vs. NAM, GFS camps. Sounds like Izzi is favoring the foreign models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Nevermind I forgot that the precipitation comes before the temperature drop on the maps. So we got the EURO/GGEM/RGEM vs. NAM, GFS camps. Sounds like Izzi is favoring the foreign models. lol...can the models EVER all agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Could tell into the first few lines Gino wrote that. Nicely done as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 First call for Chicago - 0.6" sleet, 0.5" snow for a total of 1.1" Haha..if that was to happen, at least the one inch would take a long time to melt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Here is the 00z NAM at 30 hours...colors represent 850 mb temps and lines show 700 mb temps. It's a bit messy so I outlined the 850 mb 0C contour in black and 700 mb 0C contour in red. Notice how the 700 mb temps generally lag behind, which is why it's so important to check forecast soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Something that has yet to be pointed out, but MKX's update did are the rather low snow:liquid ratios thanks to the warmish upper levels. Since the ratios are determined by the dendritic growth zone in the atmosphere rather than surface temps, that's the important aspect when it comes to ratios. Unfortunately, this will hamper accumulation even in the heart of the areas that see mostly or all snow. MKX is suggesting 10:1 or even lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Here is the 00z NAM at 30 hours...colors represent 850 mb temps and lines show 700 mb temps. It's a bit messy so I outlined the 850 mb 0C contour in black and 700 mb 0C contour in red. Notice how the 700 mb temps generally lag behind, which is why it's so important to check forecast soundings. map.png Somewhat amusing how the areas that have been shafted all winter are just to the east of that line. You know I'm grrrrring inside right now, Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.