wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 It's a lock that MKX upgrades its snow chances from 20% for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 Pretty noticeable shift since last night. This might be mostly rain here if the latest solutions are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 This will be my last comment on the subject, the reason I brought up the airports' measurements is because they measured 3.0" and 3.1" in the two main events this year, and I still claim that we have not had a 3" event this year because those totals are too close to give me much confidence they actually did reach 3" in those events. ultimate facepalm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Euro even further nw. Brings snow back to Cedar Rapids. Mid level problems for Chicago Above 850mb? Western suburbs stay well below freezing at sfc and 850mb. Unless it's above then ORD will get it. ORD SUN 06Z 13-JAN -1.4 -1.3 1013 71 100 0.13 559 548 SUN 12Z 13-JAN -3.7 -1.3 1014 81 42 0.16 555 544 SUN 18Z 13-JAN -3.4 -4.1 1016 67 22 0.01 550 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Looks to start as mix, then go to snow. But with only .25+ of liquid, would think around a inch Surface temperatures will be in the 20s so higher ratio. GGEM/RGEM look good to bust the ORD futility record! I say it goes down this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 wunderground snow maps are essentially all rain/mixed for chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Is it all snow on the Euro or are there some mixing issues in far SE WI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 wunderground snow maps are essentially all rain/mixed for chicagoland. raw data argues otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 The modeling, at least some of it, has been showing the warm layer being strongest above 850 mb so maybe that is also what the Euro is implying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Is it all snow on the Euro or are there some mixing issues in far SE WI? Based on Alek's map, probably mixing issues from Racine and even the airport south. Keep in mind this would be occurring overnight, which doesn't hurt for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Some of you are too focused on 850mb temps. If there is a warm layer it has been shown to generally be just above that level. Edit: Hoosier beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Based on Alek's map, probably mixing issues from Racine and even the airport south. Keep in mind this would be occurring overnight, which doesn't hurt for sure. Figures... Sounds like a setup for sleet with that warm layer above 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Figures... Sounds like a setup for sleet with that warm layer above 850mb. The 850mb layer is below freezing over our area starting at 42 hours, then continues to cool. What the RGEM shows: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 wunderground snow maps are essentially all rain/mixed for chicagoland. Jesus man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 The 850mb layer is below freezing over our area starting at 42 hours, then continues to cool. Yeah the surface to 850 looks good but if there's a layer above freezing above 850 then sleet could be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 The 850mb layer is below freezing over our area starting at 42 hours, then continues to cool. Yeah the surface to 850 looks good but if there's a layer above freezing above 850 then sleet could be an issue. The EURO is almost the NW outlier right now. At least in terms on how far northwest the snow gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 From 36-42hr on the Euro, H7 winds really back across northern IL to due south at 45kts which causes the WAA in that layer. GFS is not showing it as much. snow winners this run are from northern MO, southeast IA up to FEP/DBQ and north of MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 From 36-42hr on the Euro, H7 winds really back across northern IL to due south at 45kts which causes the WAA in that layer. GFS is not showing it as much. snow winners this run are from northern MO, southeast IA up to FEP/DBQ and north of MKE. you have to imagine that's what causes the increased moisture as well. Kind of a double edged sword. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 The EURO is almost the NW outlier right now. At least in terms on how far northwest the snow gets. It's funny how we go from bring too far north and fighting dry air to now possibly dealing with issues regarding precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 NAM has a nice burst over cycloneville to RFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Looks good for here too depending on mid level warmth and really hangs back precip into this area with a weak trowal look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Nam has .25"+ qpf in the far SE, looks to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Looks good for here too depending on mid level warmth and really hangs back precip into this area with a weak trowal look. interesting watching models decide how much to back flow into the cold sector. NAM has some omega creeping in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Looks good for here too depending on mid level warmth and really hangs back precip into this area with a weak trowal look. The further NW this one heads, the better chance for a decent deformation zone, so the potential certainly exists for some fun in this part of the region. The NAM is the southeast model of the bunch, the Euro the NW, and the GFS and its ensembles generally in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 ORD soundings off the NAM has column below freezing the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Bingo (Cousin Eddie's voice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 lollies to 5" looking likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 lollies to 5" looking likely The end may be near, you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Bingo (Cousin Eddie's voice) USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_054.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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