A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 So let's see, 6z GFS = just under 0.3" of freezing rain, NAM is just slightly wetter but all snow. I'll take the NAM please. It would be my largest snow of the year and increase my yearly total by 50%. Lol..this winter is unreal. I wanted to shoot myself, not literally, after reading GRR discussion. Their discussions are often depressing for snow lovers, but it was all the same junk. Warm air during the "storm" Saturday night will cause a mix....not enough moisture when the cold air comes for LES... What time frame is this LES analysis for? Sunday? Overall it will be the clippers that trigger the LES and deeper cold.... So Sunday, probably not. Pay no attention to the QPF, its just a signal of it being there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 12z NAM comes close to destroying futility with 1" of wintery nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 concern level raised from to 1% to 10%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 concern level raised from to 1% to 10%? sounds about right...this would be the absolute worst way possible to not break this record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 sounds about right...this would be the absolute worst way possible to not break this record. couple inches would be nice and cover all the mud pies up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 couple inches would be nice and cover all the mud pies up. nah...the last thing i want is a 2" crust pack as we head into the dry deep freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 nah...the last thing i want is a 2" crust pack as we head into the dry deep freeze. So you would prefer bare ground for a cold spell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 nah...the last thing i want is a 2" crust pack as we head into the dry deep freeze. better than brown and cold.. might radiate like UGN then too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 DTX added mixing wording for the CWA...said they expect an advisory event for the Tri-Cities area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 trends not the futility's friend. just about time to embrace the snow event like the morning dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 So you would prefer bare ground for a cold spell? dry cold is the most boring weather possible...might as well mitigate the cold. trends not the futility's friend. just about time to embrace the snow event like the morning dump. meh, even the most bullish models only have an inch or so for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 riding the euro futility busta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 concern level raised from to 1% to 10%? sounds about right...this would be the absolute worst way possible to not break this record. 20%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 looks like about 40% there...ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 trends not the futility's friend. just about time to embrace the snow event like the morning dump. Lol...it is so hard for me to comprehend reading posts talking about it snowing in a negative way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 What time frame is this LES analysis for? Sunday? Overall it will be the clippers that trigger the LES and deeper cold.... So Sunday, probably not.Pay no attention to the QPF, its just a signal of it being there. They were talking about the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe. I think GRR just looks at one model and goes with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Given the trends we've seen on the Euro and the GFS Ensembles in just 12 hours or so, my last statement might be a bit premature. I'd still guess 1" max, though if the RGEM or Euro verify, I'll have to up that call. Perhaps a couple inches for Chitown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 GFS says the streak continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 GFS says the streak continues What are you looking at that you can see it so quickly? Does it miss to the east on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 GFS says the streak continues Yeah, what precip does fall is mixy there, and extremely light here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 What are you looking at that you can see it so quickly? Does it miss to the east on the GFS? just the MAG site. There really is nothing to miss...just little cold sector QPF which is to be expected given the set-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 What are you looking at that you can see it so quickly? Does it miss to the east on the GFS? Not really, just borderline with surface and 850 temps. Looks pretty good for Muskegon, much juicier than Chicago or Milwaukee and clears the 850-surface 0C line in the first half of the event it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Not really, just borderline with surface and 850 temps. Looks pretty good for Muskegon, much juicier than Chicago or Milwaukee and clears the 850-surface 0C line in the first half of the event it looks like. Thanks for the head's up. Hopefully you guys can get some snow cover too...but the cold sectors of our systems have been so narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 [Ct blizz] lets get the euro to hold and we can start locking in 2-4" for many [/Ct blizz] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Thanks for the head's up. Hopefully you guys can get some snow cover too...but the cold sectors of our systems have been so narrow. This one will be razor thin, though the 12z should be good for a broad swath of around an inch from the Quad Cities to SE Wisconsin to Muskegon most likely lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 new ORD this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 If we do get an inch or two, this could make it about a month of almost nonstop snow cover, believe it or not. Talk about nearly useless snow cover. Would never think we could get a month of nearly nonstop snow cover with no snow events of over 3" yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 If we do get an inch or two, this could make it about a month of almost nonstop snow cover, believe it or not. Talk about nearly useless snow cover. Would never think we could get a month of nearly nonstop snow cover with no snow events of over 3" yet. we had 2 events over 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 new ORD this guy. Lolz, that screwhole doesn't make sense. Surface and 850 temps are below 0C and with lake temps down compared to when we saw our last snow, and the snow occurring in the early morning hours, this screwhole is not feasible imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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