Snowman99 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Local met here in St louis starting to get impressed with Saturday night. Maybe a couple inches of sleet possible here. yay, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 euro looks like it could break chicago storms heart like the Seahawks are going to on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 euro looks like it could break chicago storms heart like the Seahawks are going to on Sunday. 1.1" heart breaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 1.1" heart breaker could also be a matty slush type day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 warm rain soaked ground might help us fall just short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 need to put geos gas grill with ruler on it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 euro looks like it could break chicago storms heart like the Seahawks are going to on Sunday.Put up the $$$. Falcons win in a good game.12z ECMWF is a pretty much a mixy DAB nonevent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 It'd be funny if the Chicago 1" drought ends mostly because of sleet. It still counts. Typical ratio for sleet is like 3:1 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Put up the $$$. Falcons win in a good game. 12z ECMWF is a pretty much a mixy DAB nonevent. LOL.. Just trolling a little but I wouldn't call it a non-event yet. Yeah should be an awesome game. Not sure who I'm rooting for if the Packers win. Failcons don't scare anybody so if they somehow win our ticket is punched to the SB. Would love to end the Hags season at Lambeau. If Pack loses Sat night I'll be on the Russel Wilson bandwagon. Dude has more ice veins in his trunk than matty ice does in his whole body. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 warm rain soaked ground might help us fall just short should dry up after rain moves out as saturday looks 50 and sunny, atleast I'm hoping. Trying to find an open golf course in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 should dry up after rain moves out as saturday looks 50 and sunny, atleast I'm hoping. Trying to find an open golf course in the morning. If you find one, shoot me a pm and let me know where. I just bought a set of Callaway Irons and would love to play to see how they are hitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 If you find one, shoot me a pm and let me know where. I just bought a set of Callaway Irons and would love to play to see how they are hitting. Settlers Hill by me. 29 bucks with a cart. 18z NAM with a very sharp precip gradient on NW side across the LOT CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 lol leave it to the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Models differ on exact amount of dry air on the NW side of the precip. NAM soundings show lots of it around 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 lol leave it to the 18z NAM. USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_075.gif That would be par the course for the screw zones this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 lol 6"+ Cook Co gradient. ORD is spared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 That would be par the course for the screw zones this season. I am about to scream....AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 lol 6"+ Cook Co gradient. ORD is spared Because it won't change even 10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 LOT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO RACESHORT WAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE TROUGH BEFORE EJECTING IT OUT THECENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LOOKS TOBECOME DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS MY CWA. THISLOOKS TO LEAD TO THE SET UP OF A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVELFRONTOGENESIS ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS THE MID LEVELDISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THINGS WILLBECOME VERY TRICKY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAYMORNING AS IT APPEARS THIS BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO A GOODBAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF MY AREA. AS THESTRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THATTHIS COULD SET UP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND EVENFREEZING RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS MY NORTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES AND MYEAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES. FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...INCLUDINGCHICAGO IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY GET COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE COLUMN TOSUPPORT MAINLY SNOW. TYPICALLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONES SUCH AS THEONE ADVERTISED PRODUCE SOME NARROW BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF. SOTHE OVERALL AREAS EFFECTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY BESMALL IN AREAL COVERAGE.BECAUSE OF THIS FACT...AND THE FACT TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY A MAJORROLE...THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THISWILL EVENT WILL UNFOLD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME VERY GOOD AGREEMENTAMONG THE GUIDANCE THAT THIS EVENT WILL AFFECT ONLY ABOUT THESOUTHEAST 2/3RDS TO 3/4 OF MY CWA...WITH SOME SNOW IN CHICAGO...ANDRAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CHICAGO.THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS HOW FAST WILL THE COLD TEMPERATURESARRIVE. TYPICALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR-MASSES DROP SOUTH AND EASTWARDFAIRLY EFFECTIVELY AND UNDERCUT THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WILLNEED TO BE WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 DAB nonevent. my, my, my... That forecaster at LOT drives me nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 CIPS analogs for 12z GFS: Mean snowfall: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/F060/MV_060/COOPmeangfs212F060.png 2" snowfall prob http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/F060/MV_060/COOP2percgfs212F060.png Freezing rain prob: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/F060/MV_060/FZRApercgfs212F060.png Looking through the thumbnails, a decent amount have snow and the ones that do generally have a tight gradient like the 18z NAM showed.I think the biggest worry outside of the ORD futility streak is the very high probability of frz rain. Although the top ground layer and roads being warm from tomorrow's at least near record temps would hopefully have a minimizing effect on that potential. And then the possibility of sleet in between the primarily snow and primarily frzra zones, if it occurs that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I am about to scream....AGAIN. It's better to be on the northern edge of the heaviest precip. this many hours out... imo. SWS just issued here: 413 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013 /513 PM EST THU JAN 10 2013/...WINTER MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THEDAY ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TOINTERACT WITH THIS FRONT...LIKELY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ABAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.COLD SUBFREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...AND THIS COULD UNDERCUTWARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT LEADING TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINSHIGH WITH THE SPECIFICS OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT. HOWEVER...ATTHIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEETWILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 57...WITH MAINLY SNOW ANDSLEET EXPECTED TO THE WEST. SOME ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND ICE ISPOSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF TRAVEL IS PLANNED ACROSS THE AREASATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY ON SUNDAY...STAY TUNED TO THE LATESTWEATHER FORECASTS. Edit: My forecast: 60% chance of snow Saturday night low 23°, 20% chance on Sunday high 24°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 It's better to be on the northern edge of the heaviest precip. this many hours out... imo. SWS just issued here: Edit: My forecast: 60% chance of snow Saturday night low 23°, 20% chance on Sunday high 24°. Yeah, I haven't seen that work out too well around here. Once it starts heading a certain direction, it doesn't seem to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 12z GFS even less impressive than the unimpressive 6z GFS the 1/16-17 clipper will bring more snow than this turd lol leave it to the 18z NAM. USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_075.gif It's looking like this turd will send some snow up the poop chute of some futility zones. Yes, I know it's the NAM, but someone around Chicagoland is going to have some fun, even if it involves sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 It's looking like this turd will send some snow up the poop chute of some futility zones. Yes, I know it's the NAM, but someone around Chicagoland is going to have some fun, even if it involves sleet. ORD might measure the sleet and chalk the accumulation up as snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 ORD might measure the sleet and chalk the accumulation up as snow! That is actually how it is done. Sleet always goes on the seasonal snowfall totals etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 That is actually how it is done. Sleet always goes on the seasonal snowfall totals etc. ...Well I learned something new today! Makes sense to clump the frozen precipitation together as one. 0z NAM not quite as wet, about in the same position with westward extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 00z NAM has like .4 as sleet here. The warm layer is higher than I'm used to seeing...it's like at the 750-700 mb level with everything under that below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 00z NAM has like .4 as sleet here. The warm layer is higher than I'm used to seeing...it's like at the 750-700 mb level with everything under that below freezing. It has me on the other end getting less than an inch of snow... while the GFS has precip. further north and we should be in the snow band, but instead it is sleet. Trends die hard, don't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 I'd give this away to anyone who wants it. Seriously had enough sleet with GHD to last a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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