Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Yeah, and it may just be me, but it appears that the NW side is not as robust as some of the models were depicting. Chicago looks like a bullseye. I agree, doesn't look like much of an event for the NW edge. I'm at 28 degrees/DP 17 here with radar returns overhead but still not able to saturate. Heavier returns are trying to push in but I'm guessing it'll be hard to get over about an inch here at most. I'll re-evaluate when it actually starts snowing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Now from legit light snow we are back to sleet. 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 A little sticky outside, but getting some lightning and thunder over the last hour.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Freezing level right over VPZ appears to be exactly 700 mb, per the sounding coming in now. We maxed out at over 6 C (I think around 6.5 C). Surface was 3.9 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Have had on and off PL and -FZRA -SN now at PNT and DKB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Steady sleet in Gurnee.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Sleet with a few flakes of snow now falling. 30.6°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Still trying to saturate here. Just some tiny flakes spitting down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Have had on and off PL and -FZRA -SN now at PNT and DKB DKB reporting -sn, two miles up the road have moderate sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION851 PM CSTNOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THESOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF SFC FREEZING LINE HAS SLOWED GREATLYOVER NE IL AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ALLOWING ADVECTION TOWEAKEN. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTOMISSOURI THE FREEZING LINE IS MAKING BETTER SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSLIKELY DUE TO ADVECTION AS WELL AS WET BULBING AS HEAVIER PRECIPFALLS INTO SUB-SATURATED AIRMASS.THUS FAR PRECIP OVER NE IL HAS BEEN LARGELY LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHTRAIN...THOUGH BASED ON RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS SUSPECT THAT THESLEET MAY BE MORE OF A GRAUPLE AND A RESULT MORE OF TOP DOWNSATURATION TAKING PLACE MORE SO THAN A TRUE SLEET DUE TO MELTINGAND RE-FREEZING AS LOWEST 8000FT OR SO OF THE COLUMN IS STILLABOVE FREEZING WITH PEAK TEMP OVER +6C NEAR 925MB ON A 135Z ACARSSOUNDING FROM ORD. DEEPER COLD AIR OVER WESTERN CWA HAS ALLOWEDPRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AND WITH AT LEAST SOME PERIODICBURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW COULD SEE TOTALS OF A COUPLE/FEW INCHES INSOME SPOTS WHERE PRECIP STAYS MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW.SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAINAND/OR SLEET OVER THE CHGO AREA SOUTHWEST ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDORIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WE CONTINUE TO PRECIP INTO THE DRYLAYER AND SATURATE THINGS. REALLY IS STILL A VERY TOUGH CALL ONHOW MUCH ICE ACCUM THERE WILL BE AND WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ONPRECIP STAYING FREEZING RAIN FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME.STILL FEEL THAT THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS THAT PICK UP NEAR ORSLIGHTLY OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE...BUT THINKING THAT SHOULD BEMORE LOCALIZED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN POINT WHERE SO THE GAMEPLAN FOR NOW IS TO LET WINTER WX ADV RIDE AND NOT UPGRADE ANYWHERETO WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. RECENT WARM WEATHER AND RATHER SLOW FALLBELOW FREEZING SHOULD KEEP ICE ACCUM CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACESINITIALLY WITH ROADS STAYING MAINLY WET.OVER OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA ANY CHANGE OVER TO FRZRAIN/SLEET WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE IFTHE COLUMN COOLS FAST ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER BEFORE PRECIPENDS...WHICH IS NOT A SURE BET.IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 About 30% snow, 70% sleet here now. About 0.2" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Finally snowing. Ground starting to whiten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 About 30% snow, 70% sleet here now. About 0.2" on the ground. Still sleeting here, with snow reported 2 miles further down rte 38. Must be right on the edge. Driveway and car coated in sleet. Maybe .1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 light but steady freezing rain..temp a cold 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I'm on the Aurora/Naperville line and the freezing line must have nearly stopped just west of here. The temp dropped quickly all day then stopped between 3-7 pm. Now down to 32.3 with mixed rain and sleet here. Hope you guys don't mind the post. Just excited about the first real 'event' of the winter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 853 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 853 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013 TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS ARE STARTING TO POINT TO MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN PROBLEM IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z ILX SOUNDING...AS WELL AS 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A MORE SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED WARM LAYER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING TO 32 DEGREES OR COLDER A LITTLE QUICKER AS WELL. THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE CURRENTLY RESIDES IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILE WILL REQUIRE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. THE RISK FOR APPRECIABLE SLEET APPEARS TO HAVE FADED AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE ELEVATED WARM SHOULD COOL QUICKLY WHEN IT DOES SO...SIGNALING A RAPID CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW. SO...PLAN TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONS OF SLEET. THE MORE PRONOUNCED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND MORE RAPID SURFACE COOLING HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING RAIN FALLING FURTHER WEST THAN ANTICIPATED AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO PUSH FREEZING RAIN WEST TO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY. FINALLY...WILL HAVE TO PUSH THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN EAST A BIT MORE QUICKLY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FREEZING RAIN BECOMING MORE OF A PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE THAT MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY BECOME A THREAT. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE RAPID END OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED OF AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING. THIS THREAT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I'm on the Aurora/Naperville line and the freezing line must have nearly stopped just west of here. The temp dropped quickly all day then stopped between 3-7 pm. Now down to 32.3 with mixed rain and sleet here. Hope you guys don't mind the post. Just excited about the first real 'event' of the winter around here. Joes brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I would say this map is really accurate. Sleet hasn't given up here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLMKA Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Started as sleet around 5 in Quincy, IL, switched to snow pretty quick and then back to sleet and back to snow. Accumulating on roads to maybe 0.5" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 So i see the GFS is even further west with that next disturbance for later tomorrow. Same thread or do up another for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Rain starting to change over to Freezing Rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 So i see the GFS is even further west with that next disturbance for later tomorrow. Same thread or do up another for it? Oh yeah? Is it good for both of us, or am I going to cringe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 freezing rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Oh yeah? Is it good for both of us, or am I going to cringe? Now BEFORE you head to the nearest cliff or freeway keep in mind that trends would support a little further nw adjustment. May not be much but would probably give you a couple of inches perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Freezing line moving into Chicago. 31 at ORD and 33 at MDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Now BEFORE you head to the nearest cliff or freeway keep in mind that trends would support a little further nw adjustment. May not be much but would probably give you a couple of inches perhaps. Lol.....a couple inches would work for me. That is actually even more than I thought it would show. I am just ready to graduate out of the "inch or less" class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 So i see the GFS is even further west with that next disturbance for later tomorrow. Same thread or do up another for it? I titled this for the 13th-14th in case there were multiple waves...might as well keep it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 35.8 off the VU PWS. Edit: A full 1 F below the ASOS, which is less than a mile away. KVPZ 130353Z AUTO 34011G16KT 7SM -RA OVC029 03/01 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP117 P0005 T00280006 TSNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Still a combo and sleet/snow. 29°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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